Paul White.

Meanwhile in an ironic twist the 6 z GFS output is being discussed in the moaning thread

Wouldn't it be prudent to wait until this time next week to carry out the post Morton ? Who knows if today's 12z ukmo will verify over its 144 output from this morning it's quite annoying to read model back slapping before any verification has taken place!

Of course he is putting up an assemble from the urban heat island of London helps his windup/trolling cause no end for balance Shetland looks differentAnd West Yorkshire Also it's great that I now know how to post charts with my iphone #happydays

Messed up the links maybe redo later

Fair enough I'll try and explain all of that to the wife. Because she has just given me a rollicking for reading this thread every night and not telling her that a localised blizzard was gonna hit West Yorkshire during rush hour. Lol

Well maybe I've spent all of my time in here and forgot to check the met lol. But I have checked since the event and nothing except an ice warning.. It was a heavy thunder shower blizzard conditions. From the mild mild west

You know all of this talk about a bit of rain down South for Sunday we have taken our eyes off of the ball for what's happened today in the last hour, between this thread and the met office I feel let down, not a single warning about the blizzard I have just had to battle through to get home.. I can also confirm to shedhead that they weren't "wet snow flakes" as he alluded to earlier. Maybe Frosty can confirm if Wakefield experienced anything like we just received in Huddersfield ? Wrt whatever the models shows next week if it's westerly bring it on because if this is the mild Atlantic it ain't that mild

Hi Martin don't you feel though that whatever models show they always seem to be over egged be it the jet stream forecast or a high to the east or a low to the west. In my ten years watching this forum I have seen 1050 highs and 950 lows modelled, but when it comes to the day the highs are about 1030 and lows at about 990 ish. We only get to see the GFS jet stream forecast and I believe that is fraught with the same model bias as it's H 500s that Steve Murr refers to often. I think this weekend is tough one to call. From what I have read tonight the Met are going for an Atlantic victory in thus occasion but I remember last March and if we can keep even a small wedge of heights to our north east it May deliver snowfall and if it's anything like last spring, well that was the mist epic snowfall in my memory ( even better than December 2010

Hi Tim With all due respect and I promise I don't want to offend you. But what is the point of looking at models and reading this fine thread if people keep on defaulting back to Met office further outlooks they do get it wrong.

From joe b on twitter @BigJoeBastardi: Worst GFS ensemble run ever 10 days ago on right for Jan 25, vs latest. #epicfail of US model http://t.co/ooKlm1N4b4 I thought I would throw this in to help people that believe the GFS is the worlds best globel model. Tonight's debate in here is astonishing. Writing off winter half way through is crazy toys out of prams and dummies being spat out allover the place. A tiny bit of me hopes that this winter is over and the people that say they are giving up leave the thread until next winter. I'm just a tad fed up of reading depressing posts its tediousness and annoying.

Interesting chart not sure about its accuracy courtesy of joe b on twitter

The words of winterfell

This is a plea to Paul or whoever is able to alter the thread page. Could you please place a block button next to the quote or somewhere within a post from members. A nice big red block user button would be most welcome thanks

2 posts within 4 mins with massively differing views. Oh the frustration of this thread.

Well my glass is half full and he does say "notable" which implies they may be some about and looking at the model output I don't think anyone would dismiss the chance of a cold and snow outbreak in the next ten days.

Hi Steve I also like the ECM 168 chart it looks to me like quite a lot of energy drops well south of the UK.

No because the charts have not verified yet. If I remember in ten days time I will try to answer that question. Hope that helps.

Sorry bud but if that chart verified has shown it would be heavy wintertime showers and periods of snow and further north the more chance

Hi terrier I don't want to get into a huge argument with you especially as you have the name of my fave football club. But I do find it surreal that you have more confidence in the GFS than the ECM. Two things I would like to point out the GFS is lower than the ECM in verification stats. And secondly the run to run consistency from the GFS recently has looked poor in my eyes it has looked as though every run has produced a different outcome. I don't know if you are basing your lack of confidence on two failed ECM runs in the last 15 months if that's the case there will be many many more GFS failures. All I can say is I like it when a model latches into a signal and runs with with it until resolvedPaul

Hi everyone does anyone know where I can find a chart viewer like gfs or ECM for Mexico riviera Maya region I'm going on honeymoon on October 19th a little way off but I want to be prepared thanks in advance for any help Paul

I am sorry just a quick question to Jh why can't we read the thoughts of GP on here what has happened to him? Thanks Paul.

I suspect that you have made this post for a reaction? Well here it is the GFS has been woeful this winter and it not just the GFS v ECM it's also against the UKMO and NOGAPS and CFS etc. The GFS is like a toddler following its Mum around a supermarket. You said the ECM has got it's modelling wrong 3/4 times this winter I bet it would take you the rest of the week to post all if the GFS wrong modelling. The GFS is good to T48 beyond that its woefull IMHO Paul

You are right that there has been a lack of convective eastery modelled but if you was to look out of your window now you May see a tremendousl convective westerly

Hi Ian Just wondered because I saw a post from sm on the other thread and I am sure he said that with the ECM there is room for some eastward correction but I notice you and nick reckon its more high risk Paul

Fair enough. I just wanted to lift the thread with somthing positive. I am sorry for Mis reading your post. Paul