Carlrg

Even though the Navgem (the new kid on the block) shows a cold Easterly affecting half of the UK at T90+ http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 Precipitation is none existent not only at T90+ but all through the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=90&code=0&mode=2&carte=0&archive=0 Still showing cool uppers though From T42+. http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

Steve do you need more of an arc in the isobars to guarantee a streamer (as well as the other pre-requisites) such as the the one in your post or is that a small piece of the jigsaw? http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2009/archives-2009-2-2-0-0.png

Bom still looks cold. http://www.meteociel...ode=1&archive=0 Low snowfall up untill deep into FI http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0 A bit of something to suit everyone on this run. Whatever your preferences are!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

Snow for more than the East if the Bom is to be believed. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=2&carte=0

Many thanks for posting the PDF Ian. Just a quick question. Austrailian RMS errors at T+72 have come down dramatically in the second half of 2010. Is that the time they took on the UKMO model?

No undercutting lows up to the 20th on any of these models. The HP to just stalls them and keeps them in the atlantic. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=6&size=0 HP will have to move to our North to drag in the cold from the East. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=180&size=0 Personally i think that Hp over us is going to take some shifting. On the up side a dryer spell will be welcomed by our rain soaked little island.

The BOM bringing a big pool of cold uppers in at T168. http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0 Not a massive amount of Snow but boy it looks cold. http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 The fat bird Shannon Entropy has yet to pick up the Karaoke mic. http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021 But is stood at the bar, waiting to pounce with Pina Colada in hand. http://www.meteociel...&ech=192&mode=0 And at the very last minute Nigel, Shannon's ex boyfriend has dragged her from the pub kicking and screaming. http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=1594 Shannon escapes the clutches of her ex lover, runs back into the pub and snatches the Karaoke mic out of the hands of Tracy and sings a lung busting rendition of it's raining men by the weathergirls.

That looks like a substantial snow event for Monday. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=24&mode=2&carte=0

People making their minds up and just stating what they see in the models are totaly different. Please don't confuse the 2.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 The fat bird Shannon Entropy has yet to pick up the Karaoke mic. http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021 But is stood at the bar, waiting to pounce with Pina Colada in hand. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0 And at the very last minute Nigel, Shannon's ex boyfriend has dragged her from the pub kicking and screaming.

I know its deep into FI but the cold pool in Eastern Europe just throws in the towel and gives in at 186+ Its not fighting back. http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0 Trying to keep the spam down thats all. And i think i summed up the medium term quite well!

Matt Hugo posted on the strat thread that everything points to it turning milder (but not zonal) in the medium term. According to a couple of models including the BOM he may have hit the preverbial nail on the head. http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0 http://www.meteociel...&mode=8&carte=0

Mondays event. Looks cold to me. http://www.meteociel...h=60&carte=1021

The BOM shows us cold through to the 25th Jan then the Atlantic make inroads and eventually overpowers the cold pool. http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

This FI chart looks quite dangerous at + 96 hours with the really cold pv in amongst the mix. Is it as bad (for serious cold) as it looks to my untrained eye. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

The BOM is showing cold uppers right through to FI 240 with the milder air never looking like breaking through. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

Excellent post Robbie. I think the excitement of the last few days has started to turn into shocked silence. Worrying times ahead methinks!

Here, Here very well said. With 2m charts as cool as these they will need all the help they can get. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&archive=0 I know it in FI but temps showing even cooler to the end of the run!!!!!! And before anyone pulls me up, i know its the BOM but it was developed by the UKMO so that's good enough for me.

The PV looks like it's done 12 rounds with Mike Tyson. http://www.meteociel...rte=1&archive=0

The 2m charts show a rise in temp from Sunday onwards. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&archive=0

The BOM shows the jet pushing through for Saturday today, rather than sliding SSE as in yesterdays run. http://www.meteociel...ode=5&archive=0

Thanks for that Liam.

I know i am an amateur but IMO I think the BOM has this blocking nailed. How Accurate is the BOM and why isnt it mentioned much. Is it a dubious model? At the end of the BBC forecast it showed Scandi heights building, i presume this will add to keeping the Atlantic systems in check. http://www.meteociel...ode=1&archive=0

Just seen BBC forecast and the Scandi high was definitely building at the end of the run!