Carlrg

Ecm scared to give us the 240. No wonder!!!!

That Scandi ridge's halfway to Iceland.

Frosty, that Scandi ridge does look pretty unmoveable though on the UKMO T144 charts.

Come to daddy. Come on you can do it kid! Babies first steps, Lovely. Now don't go running off, stay where we can see you! Go and get your big brother, see if he wants to play!

The Scandi phoenix has arisen.

Not quite!

I agree. Looks like the Scandi block is going to turn into a Christmas chipolata.

Is that HP in the Med the fly in the ointment.

That easterly is slowly showing its hand on the GFS18z.

Thanks for the insight Nick, looks like the rut is well and truly stuck then.

Well at T96 the GFS has the Scandi High retrogressing and the shortwave losing its oomph.

They're all different at T144 the maximum UKMO goes to. What will play out is anybodies guess including the models.

Unfortunately the Scandi heights disappearing on this run.

FI I know but if this verifies and sticks then we can all assume this winters fubared.

Once established over us that HP ain't going anywhere according to the GFS. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Hi Nick, is this not the Atlantic punching through at T168 on the ECM. Please don't take this as a dig I'm just curious.

Maybe the models are right and it's the weather that's wrong.

TBH, Model Output Discussion needs leaving as is. Since when has it been an elitist forum? The 12z GEM not showing starting to return to mild untill well into FI, T234 H. Bound to change.

The massive Atlantic HP block unfortunately seem to have gone by the wayside now in most of the models even in FI. Looks like a Polar Maritime flow for the foreseeable future. I think a SSW will be needed to get us out of this coolish rut we are in. Nothing spectacular, (for cold that is) not wind.

Me cloggs are gunna be reet chafin wi all that ice about. There's gunna be ructions in ere.

Massive Atlantic block in the never reaches of FI on the GFS 06z control. Is this the turning point of our winter we have had so far?

On a serious note, is the rise in Sea temperature fueling the jet making it stronger than in the past and overriding other weather patterns? Getting deep and lasting cold into our tiny Island seems harder and harder as the years tick by. A really nasty looking jet for Friday.

I think that we are on borrowed time this year re cold for our tiny island and have 4 possible opportunities for cold before the horse bolts. 1. The desalination of the Atlantic ocean leading to catastrophic failure of the gulf stream. 2. The eruption of the super volcano under Yellowstone Park spewing millions of tonnes of dust particles into the upper atmosphere and blocking out the sun. 3. A giant asteroid hitting the Earth causing a tilt in the axis and sending the British Isles into a more northerly and more favourable position. 4. A perturbation in the mysterious and enigmatic FI actually verifying. But unfortunately any 1 of the 4 above mentioned scenarios has an equal chance of coming to pass.

Put yer hats and coats away guys. Springs on its way.

I think there would be a run on snow shovels if perturbation 11 came to pass. Alas Deep into FI.