Carlrg

After the cold pool passes through on the 16th the BOM drags in a slighly warmer Easterly. This Is the best for the warm lovers I can find but overall not great. Unfortunately It looks like another rinse and repeat at 240h +. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

My thumbs up is for your answer John not the outcome. If I've read the charts you posted right it looks like a return to a more Atlantic driven weather pattern. (hope i am wrong).

Would the pattern change affect us in a good way or a detrimental way John in terms of fine and dry weather.

Would there be a few problems once again with fret in the East/North East from that setup in the latter stages?

10th May is the best straw clutch I can find showing signs of waning 850 temps decent warmth and slack easterly flow. Deep deep into FI though. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013042406/gfs-0-384.png http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013042406/gfsnh-1-384.png

Reached 21 degrees in London today. If i remember correctly someone's having sock stew for tea. There's also a chance they will be having sock and chips tomorrow. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=18&size=2

Looks like the cold northerly only lasts a day. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=78&size=2 It has waned and turned into a slightly warmer norwesterly. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=102&size=2

I really hope you're right but i have just been outside and cut the grass and it felt decidedly chilly out there and thats before the cooler uppers and northerly/noreasterly sets in.

The colder uppers start creeping into the UK on the 23rd. http://www.meteociel...1&ech=30&size=2 Then its just downhill from there! http://www.meteociel...1&ech=54&size=2 http://www.meteociel...1&ech=78&size=2 http://www.meteociel...&ech=102&size=2 http://www.meteociel...&ech=126&size=2 Into FI the NAVGEM and the BOM showing colder than the rest but overall not great. http://www.meteociel...&ech=126&size=2 http://www.meteociel...&ech=174&size=2 Combined with a cool northerly we'll all be needing our hats and coats on. http://www.meteociel...&ech=102&size=2 Really really hoping for a definate warm up soon as i'm getting a bit fed up with the cooler weather now!

Around midweek according to Gibby.

Only just seen Gav's post.

A cool northerly on the NAVGEM at T144. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1441.gif What's the chances of the HP in the Atlantic drifting over us?

I agree but is this outcome not the lesser of two evils? IMO better than weeks and weeks of Atlantic driven washouts which we had last year.

Is this the warm (ish) easterly you mentioned earlier Gav? Would the undercut also help pull even more of the warm continental air in? http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013041918/gfs-0-288.png http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013041918/gfs-6-312.png http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013041918/gfsnh-1-312.png

Have been watching bats feeding above my back garden this evening. Yes I do think winter's over. Thankfully.

The Bom has had a cold slant all winter and continues the trend on this run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

Have just looked through all the models on Metrociel Android and cannot see anything significant in terms of a decent warm up. We'll all be straw clutching and hoping for an Indian summer at this rate.

The Spanish plume never gets here on the BOM. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

I hope the Honey and Bumblebees get a chance this year. Last years rain decimated their colonies and another wet year would really put them on the brink. The honey bees were struggling with the Veroa mite already and the wet weather must have been the final straw. We desperately need some decent charts like this to start verifying.

240H Western Ireland and Scotland?

Even the BOM's getting into the act. http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0 The only caveat is its deep FI.

Getting there very slowly but surely. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=8&carte=0 Even Europe and parts of Scandanavia, starting to come out of the freezer. The really cold uppers discipating nicely. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=1&carte=0 All in deep FI though, but giving the strength of the sun a very plausable outcome.

Cool on an evening but some of those 2m daytime temps from the beginning of April look possitively toasty. (relatively speaking). http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=8&carte=1

There's probably more chance of getting your money back from the Bank of Cyprus than this coming to fruition but we live in hope. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=372&size=0

We'll be getting penguins in the Thames if this carries on! (yes i know they're from the southern hemisphere, they're good swimmers) http://www.meteociel...&ech=216&size=2 http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=7&ech=216&size=2 http://www.meteociel...&ech=216&size=2