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DJ Fart

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    Happy people to the north of me.

    Sad people to the south.

    Here I am, stuck in the Midlands without a clue.

    This is what irks me. If people are going to call output ‘terrible’ or ‘brilliant’, they should really state where for instead of making it sound like it’s terrible/brilliant for all.

    Are you seriously going to keep posting this, several times a day? For now, I'm just happy that the MetO are confident of cold air coming in, the rest is up for grabs for all of us. Use the ignore feature for those you don't like. Honestly, it makes things so much easier. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

    Also just to add to this, March is also looking good if you are after winter - well in recent years March does feel like extension of winter (or sometimes our only "winter" month). 

    I'm sure @Cheshire Freeze has mentioned a few times about March looking interesting. 

    Blimey, I'm hopeful for a week or two, I don't think I can handle looking to March already! 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Nothing wrong with this morning’s output Ukmo & gem spectacular gfs also good as is the ecm. Seems some imby’s going on today. Yes not so good further south but last time I looked this was the model output thread. Not the southern regionals lol. 😂 

    Seems to me it's gloating from northerners which has rubbed some up the wrong way. Still a long way to go before any of us see proper snow falling, with many more twists and turns to come. 

    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, lottiekent said:

    I agree, some of us SE’ies are well overdue a proper blizzard. While some in Kent/SE overall did very well last couple of winter’s, there was nothing here.
    I know today won’t be like that but, I’m hoping for a 1997(?) or 2010 style fall at some stage this winter. There was also a very good one early 80’s I can just about remember, maybe 1982. Some of that please weather gods ❄️

    Last winter I was in London for the day with the family when that big snow event took place. Came down so fast and settled, even in the city. All the way home to Colchester on the train we were going past white fields and could see thick snow flying past the window. Three excited kids, one excited adult. 

    Get to Colchester and nothing. Felt so unfair! I was proper grumpy. 🤣

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

    Same old morning runs...

    That depth of cold is gonna prove a problem for any model to break down. Happy advent! 

    We hear this a LOT.  Last year showed that this isn't always as true as many on here believe.  We had deep cold that was brushed aside pretty effortlessly in the end.  I've got three excited children (and an excited dad!) here watching falling snow on Dec 1st.  It's already been a good winter in that respect.  I've found that coming on here less frequently during the day and simply summarising the last couple of pages is better for my mental health than poring over every run...but here's to the next chase!

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Wow, the topsy-turvy world of following the weather models at this time of year! The snow charts, the IMBYism, the BOOMS, the wailing and gnashing of teeth, the pub run, the Stella (sic) runs, zonal, phasing, Griceland, "get the cold in"...and now into the straw clutching, and all before Dec 1st! Would we have it any other way?! 

    Something tells me this isn't quite done yet, so tell the Fat Lady she isn't welcome. 

    • Like 17

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by DJ Fart

    18 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Well great charts tonight if it’s cold and possibly a chance of snow for some. The ECM was fantastic and that will take some beating. Thankfully I’m heading to sunnier climbs for 10 days but I wish you all luck in your snow chase fingers crossed guys. Just hope we can land back at Manchester in 10 days time lol 😂 

    IMG_6419.jpeg

    Tenerife, nice. Don't forget to tell us all at least four times a day so we don't forget!

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul

    1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

    As i said yesterday the basic set up is cast.

    Cold starting to embed and lows running se  along the tropical boundary and filling to our se.

    Inter run variations enevitable.

    This is an extrordinary chart for this time of year so enjoy it and don't get caught up in others negativity when they mis interpret the wider signals with one run😁

    IMG_1286.png.0102ee71015e01484c378a26021c6c60.png

     

    As others have said, a great start to the day. GFS's known failure to handle lows heading our way from the Atlantic should always be born in mind, especially on the good old pub run. After all, they do say that Thursday night is the new Friday night!

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