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DJ Fart

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

    It’s a thing of beauty....it’s still 7 days away though...I wonder where FI begins currently?

    Of course it is. Every day there have been eye candy charts knocked out by the models but never getting any nearer, constantly at +168. "Get the cold in first!!". Well, the cold is in and set to stay...now just got to be patient, but it's so frustrating to be looking at the best synoptics for years, and we still struggle to get anything meaningfully snowy from it. 

    • Like 5

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Floatylight said:

    Hi

    Not far from myself dj !

    I just over the train gates 😉 

    Last time it snowed heavy I took a drove through gt horksley. 

    It looked amazing.

    I kept stopping and taking photos of the drifting ..

    Fingers crossed 🤞 

    Hi Floaty!  Good to see that you're still on here flying the Colchester flag!  I remember the drifting...it took so long for the drifts to totally melt away!  Not looking like we're going to see much snow here at the moment, but fingers crossed!

     

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, robert said:

    Not long started to snow here in the outer hebridies. I’m on the northwest, right next to the atlantic. Hope you get snow

    ⛄️ my second winter here after moving  to live here lasts April 2021,from Stoke In Trent.

     

    IMG_7323.MOV  

     

    IMG_7323.MOV

    Hey, I spent a lot of time up there on the Isle of Lewis back in the early noughties!  Had a girlfriend from Shawbost (or Siabost in Gaellic).  I miss the place at Christmas!  (And her, but that's another story!)

    Re what the models are showing us at the moment, it's in danger of going from boom to bust in the space of about three hours!  One minute we're looking at Day After Tomorrow stuff, then it's "warm incursions".  Ha ha!  Couldn't make it up!  If the models can go from such huge wintry possibilities to nothing then there's really no point at all in looking that far ahead.  Or, rather, not posting anything 8-10 days away.  When will people learn?!  Same every year...

    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some absolutely stunning output today, of course.  I'm currently working from home, "Let it Snow" playing...feeling very festive!  Worth noting, however, that we've been here many times before.  I've made use of the ignore function to remove the overly negative posts and it really helps with the viewing experience, so I hope this doesn't come across like that!  

    People keep talking about "the only way is downgrades from here", but then the models find ways to prove us all wrong!  If we can get this inside the five day range I'll be a lot happier...lets see what today brings!  

    • Like 3

    Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dj fart

    Part of the problem is that we've become so snow-starved that any half decent synoptics are fallen upon even at +240.  I do enjoy the rollercoaster but I can't stand those people who say, over and over, that they were right and so on.  How can you be right until something has actually taken place?!  Whenever a 'poor' run comes out, it's toys all over the place, finger pointing etc...it's mad.  Great viewing though!

    For what it's worth (and I hope I'm wrong because I bloody love snow!) I think it's going to end up quite a north/south divide event.  Does annoy me when people talk about "widespread snow for everyone!" and then the accompanying image shows patchy snow for favoured places (usually north east and midlands).  Oh well.  Seasons cheer, everyone!  The weather will do what the weather does, no matter who says what!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    Not true, go back over the last 20 pages and there are plentiful. Likewise the more knowledgable members giving a more realistic stance on things. 
    Whichever is being said… 2010 it isn’t. 2018 imo either. 

    I've been following this avidly and I think you're being unfair on the active posters on here if you're saying that anyone has said this will be another 2010.  Happy for you to quote some.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Polaris said:

    On this Day 12 years ago. Freezing cold with heavy snow showers. This forecasted easterly is a wimp compared. We struggle to get -10 850s even out of reliable days 8-12. Could be a slow burner but anyone comparing or calling it a 2010 redux/esque is brave: 

     

     

    D3571EA6-DA7C-4FA4-80DA-B4DD71813DC6.jpeg

    Agreed, although I've not yet seen many people saying it's going to be a 2010 repeat.  "Best synoptics since 2010" isn't quite the same thing.  Personally, I can see too much going wrong still but I'm enjoying the analysis from more knowledgeable people than I!

    • Like 3

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I work from home in a large summer house...trees to the front and back of the house.  I keep hearing things landing on my roof!  Wind picked up in the last half hour here, for sure.  

    I have been chuckling at all the mentions of a Sting Jet though from people who hadn't heard of it until about 48 hours ago (not necessarily on here, I might add!).  You've got people as far apart as Leicester and Brighton saying "Sting Jet right over me!!!"...!  

    Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Beanz said:

    If it was one individual coin toss without a preceding event or series of events, then you’d be correct. But there’s a series  of events that the statement relates to, so the odds are based on that fact.  
     

    You’re in the next village to me, meet in the Yew and debate over a beer?

    No they're not!  

    Mate, read it again! 

     

    "If you've just flipped five heads, the odds of the next coin being heads is still evens". 

     

    Of course it is! The odds of getting six in a row are as you state, no issue. The odds of the statemented coin toss, as posted by the author, is evens. 

     

    See you in the YT! 

    SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Dp’s look marginal at best when the notable precip is around - however, if that intensity does increase then the freezing level will come down with it. Some areas of the se will get a surprise 

    Quite ……

    Yeah, I'm surprised that we're not forecast for more...the Netweather forecast for my area shows only rain now, but I really do think we'll at least see falling flakes (if you're awake in the early hours!)

    Kids' football is gonna be brutal tomorrow either way!

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