[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 hour ago, Snowman. said:

Really sorry to say but the UKMO this morning really isn’t great and would likely to leading to you needing a boat rather than a sledge. Luckily it seems relatively alone but you don’t want deep bowling ball lows like that. You want flat lows with the centre over the northern half of France. 
 

Generally speaking if lows start phasing the West/SW of the UK that can spell trouble as it throws a ridge up in front which brings a southerly feed into the UK, the last thing you’re after when searching for cold and snow. 
 

The shape you’re after is flat lows south, this allows for the greatest chance to advert cold air west. 
 

 

I'm with you on this one. Until the UKMO is fully on board, everything else can be taken with a pinch of salt. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

39 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that game set match to gfs?!!ecm 06z has just gone pretty much full on to gfs at only 3 days out!!pretty humiliating that!!!

Not sure a computer model can feel humiliation? 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

11 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Is that simply because you only had a fartful in Essex DJ Fart?

Mid December I had snow "covering" for a week!! Today a few CMs...can't complain IMBY but understand why others would when it doesn't go the way we dream of.

Yes and no. I'm disappointed IMBY, but not surprised.  I never saw anything more than what we got, but it feels like people are desperate to join in with whatever they have. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

That's

1 hour ago, brabs69 said:

West Haddon, Northamptonshire 

Now you're talking. Very nice!

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

See what happens over here in EA soon. Marginal dew point.

I'll give you a clue, mate: nothing.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

So funny seeing all these "coverings". Is this really how snow starved we've all become? 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

29 minutes ago, sunny_vale said:

To be fair, it wasn't in reference to the thickness on the ground; there were just bursts of heavy snow falling with giant snowflakes. It was nice to walk in it as I only woke up to the snow we had in December!

Your area was amazing in December as well! I was in London as it started coming down. By the time I got back to North Essex there was hardly anything. So disappointing!

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Think most of us in this thread have had our lot. Whatever is left to come is looking like sleet at absolute best. Was never going to be much else, the temperatures just weren't low enough. 

The models have proven to be hugely unreliable, bordering on pointless, and I'm sure they're getting worse. 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, sunny_vale said:

We had a nice covering this morning. Woke up in West London and travelled on the overground via Hampstead Heath to work in Hackney Wick. The whole ground there was white it was beautiful to see. Lasted a while and the snow was pretty thick at times (gone now of course). Definitely a nice occurrence but now bring on sunshine and some warmer days . . . please 

Funny how people's take on what constitutes pretty thick etc differs. I travelled into Liverpool St this morning and there really wasn't much at all in East London! 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

How do you think Colchester may do from this evening?

I think our proximity to the coast is scuppering us. I expect cold rain or a sleety mix at best. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

You can tell how snow starved we are when people start saying they have a "winter wonderland" and there's barely a covering! Ha ha! 

On the 0630 train out of Colchester where it had just started to pick up and settle but won't come to anything. Nice to see falling snow at least. 

From the train, it seemed like just past Chelmsford was the sweet spot for Essex. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Well this has been disappointing. Woke up expecting the sky to be that weird orange colour you get at night. Nope. As predicted, nothing here just outside Colchester.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Well, heading off to bed now. Early start for me tomorrow, interviewing candidates in London all day... hope the journey home is uneventful!

Here's to waking up to a few surprises across our region. Good luck, all!

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, Floatylight said:

Window watching from 3am.

Well when I am waking up every hour because I can't sleep...

Think the s/e may be getting lucky  

I wish I shared your optimism, Floaty. Think we'll be on the cusp again, sadly. Reckon south of the county will be fine though. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Arpege is outrageous by Friday morning now as the snow comes south 

I'm on that tiny white bit in East Anglia.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Surprises can happen and also we had a decent snow event in early December! Can't be greedy.

It wasn't great in Colchester at all, especially compared to just a few miles down the road. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

2 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I think it depends who is right. UKMO fancy rain, GFS and icon fancy snow 

Agreed. Nothing more than a slush fest on offer for the South East, but it was never really looking like anything else. Think I'll take a break from here for a bit and look forward to warmer weather. The NIMBY ramping is getting really tedious, despite mods repeatedly asking people to stop it.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

2 hours ago, Weatherman_93 said:

Yeah what's happened to your 'Snow Watch' updates!? 

I didn't see anything worth bothering about this time.  Lots of 'potential' but we got burnt in December waiting for the snow that never arrived.  This time I've just lost the will to live with all the chopping and changing.  I get that the models are struggling with consecutive SSWs, but they've been absolutely terrible.  I swear they're becoming more useless as the years tick by!

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

55 minutes ago, Weatherman_93 said:

A lot of fuss about nothing. Well down here anyway.

I never even took to Facebook this time!  Ha ha!

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Colchester, that’s where I am. This morning had few wintry showers.

Must've missed those where I am! 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think potentially no model has this right. 

I say expect the unexpected. 
This is going to be a nowcast situation! 

The models can't agree what to do with this low. It does as explained by Met Office in their video, all depend how it interacts with the Jet stream and they do tend to be further south than what is currently being shown. 

Will be interesting to see where we are in the morning with the radar and what is actually falling! I had sleet/snow showers today at 65m in North east Essex. When everything was saying rain.

Where abouts in North East Essex was this?

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS making more of the back edge snow as the cold front slowly clears tomorrow

UkV too, slow to clear the front allowing colder arctic air to catch up

Knife-edge stuff for me.  I was in London with the family in December when that snow started coming down.  All the way back home through Essex was a white out.  Kids excited, I'm excited.  Then we get off at Colchester and there's barely anything!  Literally five miles down the road it was laying thick.  Gutted to miss out then and looks like it might be touch and go again.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Just to give some idea of the problems in forecasting next weekend's weather, here are the snow charts from a few ECM ensemble members for Saturday evening:

 

 

If I was a betting man, I'd be doing a combination tricast on numbers 2, 6 and 7, knowing our luck in England! 

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There is this thread that helps to sift the nuggets from the dross.

 

True, and it's a really good idea, but relies on people actually hitting the 'informative' reaction, which many egos won't allow!  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Light drizzle here this morning in on the Essex/Suffolk border...bloody cold though!