Purga

Lots of cold air accumulating over Canada to power up the jet Nice blocking over Scandinavia but I fear it won't do us much good.

It may well be but the current more reliable timeframe NWP is very unsettled and stormy and any speculation on later developments is pure conjecture.

I was comparing to later in the season last year when we had the relentless barage of LP's on a southerly jet stalling against a blocking High eg:

Thanks for the input Snowballz! Indeed some of the NWP output is starting to look ominously like last year with the jet pushing southwards and a series of LPs heading directly at us - a snapshot example as follows. There's lots of chance for things to change of course but realistically the short to medium / reliable timeframe is looking wet 'n windy with very little sign of anything wintry apart from the mountain tops in Scotland maybe.

The 06z is well summed up by one chart from the GFS-P Wet, very windy and mild as a dominant theme across most model output at the moment.

Looking very unsettled next week as well as very mild uppers into Europe and the UK from ECM - last chart FI but not untypical.

Similar? Not exact but interesting maybe - at least it's not raging zonality!

Average looking ENS 850 temp plots which are a bit (rather than a lot) above average so more 'seasonal' with a trend downwards to 'average' towards the end. Nice to see some more cold runs appearing at the end as well. PS: Apologies SS you beat me to it!

Remarkably mild conditions for all of Europe throughout the whole ECM run this morning The airmass is being sourced from way south over the North African desert. I would imagine there will be some warmth records in line to be broken if this verifies, not what many would want but noteworthy nontheless.

18z showing very warm upper air flooding over Europe at the end of the high res Very mild at 2M over a vast swathe of the continent

On the face of it a nice fantasy chart but that's all it is I don't think the 'Polar Vortex' has even begun to get it's act together yet it's far too early

Last year this time the charts looked 'promising' with no strong PV We all know what happened later don't we!

Corkingly mild uppers & settled weather as we finish off the month according to ECM the placement of the HP will make differences of course of the trend is consistent .

A promise of things to come over the winter we hope?

EDIT --- LOL!http:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/vava.gifhttp:////d321955.r.worldssl.net/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png

The weather's havin' a laugh! the GFS 12z ENS don't tell the whole story though A pretty chilly easterly in train typically as below Not too wet at least.

Where were you in January? Not really cold though Last March was more on the money for actual cold v Uppers looking pretty warm but with a muted unsettled signal.

Bitter cold >>>>

I'll take that as a compliment BA. Agree btw

Slightly nippier next weekend but nowt too wintry apart from the mountains of Caledonia - zilch snow elsewhere of course. Roaringly mild FI from GFS 12z Probably unsettled with fluctuating temps then - pretty average.

A blow to the hoped for cold blast from the 12z Op run at least A glancing blow if that with a posible bit of frost here and there but nowt else. The ENS show a lot of scatter however so it could go either way

ECM mean pointing to a cooler regime after days 8/9 There could be some further wintry precipitation over the Scottish snow fields still - what a brilliant season they've had in contrast to the rest of us poor s*ds

Why the #*%$"~@'**!! couldn't we have seen this 6 weeks ago?

Looks like a nice warmish and dry period in store Indications of a drift towards average temps and rather more unsettled conditions as the month moves on. Broadly similar farther north apart from the precipation spike in the next days. ECM concurs with the mean @ 144hrs trending more zonal @ 249hrs Nothing dire so pleasantly Spring like for most with a few cool / cold nights possible.

I'm sure a pattern change is evolving & hopefully to a drier scenarion particulary in the South but I still think there are signs that things won't be that dry and settled rather more 'typical' of March with a mixed bag likely. It's certainly been an extreme period for rainfall this winter so any evolution to 'normal' will be an improvement. Anyway I think Gotto should add to his signature. "Wasn't it enough that we lived through the wettest December - February for over 250 years that no one alive has experienced?"