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Purga

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Everything posted by Purga

  1. Purga
    Take a look at the AO forecast to plunge into negative territory Good indicators are there to be seen.
  2. Purga
    Worth keeping the faith Note the HP in the mid Atlantic not LP!
  3. Purga
    Still looks like setting up for a good easterly IMO Notice the UK high ridging across the top to the SH
  4. Purga
    Another good run from GFS 06z with a super tease at the far end of FI
  5. Purga
    The 06 GEFS show a LOT of very cold runs and some are tightly clustered at sub -10 hPa. The Stella FI Op run is at the extreme end but there is pretty compelling support for a significant cold spell within the next 2-3 weeks http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=true
  6. Purga
    LOL - could there be a better chart set?
  7. Purga
    GFS 06z looking much better in FI Thermals at the ready!
  8. Purga
    Omega, Omega wherefore art thou Qmega? Steve M - energy going under to create a cut off High?
  9. Purga
    ECM @ 216hrs looking pretty interesting. From a slightly different perspective as well
  10. Purga
    Agree with several of the above posts - the 12z GEFS are actually very good with strong clustering of sub -10hPa runs. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&var=2&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.1257&lid=ENS&country=de&zip=&bw=true Good trend.
  11. Purga
    ECM Op was on the mild side of the DeBilt suite although with fair support / clustering. There are still a good number of cold members to balance as well as some very cold solutions
  12. Purga
    Very nice NH profile from ECM @ 240hrs Main PV lobe thinks'maybe I'll take a trip from Siberia to check out the UK for once'! GFS ENS aren't too shabby P10 being a beaut Seriously though there is a lot of scatter and to get perspective, we could always end up with P13 . There is a lot more of interest for coldies that's for sure and increasingly so as we move on towards the New Year. Hope you all keep having a great Holiday and here's to a frigid New Year!
  13. Purga
    Now there's a very nice 240hr chart from ECM That could easily evolve into something formidable given a split vortex and the bulk of the energy on the Eurasian side of the globe. One to watch - and BTW Merry Christmas to you all whatever the weather!
  14. Purga
    Yes & P17 would do rather nicely
  15. Purga
    "Very strong support for a New Year Northerly from ecm ensembles this morning" Quoted on TWO by TomC Met Office
  16. Purga
    Maybe but it looks like 'toppling' towards Scandinvia before a nice 'rinse and repeat' - caveat... all in FI of course.
  17. Purga
    So far so good with the GFS 06z run.
  18. Purga
    Interesting ECM 240hrs - signs of the EC46 retrogression of HP to the mid Atlantic?
  19. Purga
    Yes please Santa! Either will do As long as it's not this Fingers crossed.
  20. Purga
    The end of GFS shows a finely balanced and reasonably optimistic (for cold lovers) picture IMO The vortex lobe over N Russia / Siberia, HP over Newfounland and Western N America Ridge look good but this is of course FI. The trend in the ENS will of course be interesting to note.
  21. Purga
    Not a bad NH profile Let's see what the ENS show.
  22. Purga
    As they say on a question of sport - what happens next??
  23. Purga
    The GFS FI anticyclonic mild fest again this morning seems to be on its own amongs the GEFS Although ECM seems to be trending that way Not desperately mild though Let's either have a decent last blast of winter with snow for all or bring on some nice warm spring weather and let's forget this endless mediocre crud!
  24. Purga
    Before everybody gets too depressed the GEFS are still showing a majority of members (including the Op & Control) going for an extended colder than average period after a brief warm up next week. Of course these can and do often 'flip' but at least the sign is there at the moment.
  25. Purga
    The SE / EA brigade wouldn't kick this GEFS member out of bed Nice convective showers of snow into Kent & east anglia and running along the south coast - not seen in a long long time.
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