Purga

ECM trying very hard to give us an easterly And Nick Sussex high blood pressure!

Yes and here they are to peruse The mild shift is being shifted further out. Shall we shift our expectations this evening??

Looking pretty chilly for most on Sunday if GFS 18z is to believed. Good easterly flow off a cold continent Dry cold with low DPs Clear skies Brrrr.... If it does go mild so be it but there looks like some cold for us to enjoy in the shorter term. Maybe not snowy but who knows what surprises may crop up once the cold is in place??

Having decided to take a break from the models since all the pundits were predicting 'nailed on' zonality, Thought I'd take a casual look and I was surprised to see ECM!: Just goes to show what microscopic changes on the global scale can mean to our tiny part of the world. The overall synoptic pattern is pretty much the same as the mild roaring SW'lys as well predicted by the NWP but with a small shift that could make a huge difference to us. Having said that it will, of course, be much different on the following runs. My ray of hope is the METO extended outlook today where they talk of high pressure becoming a significant factor later on for our domain albeit with low confidence.

ECM short ENS are better than this morning with the Op very much on the mild side for days 5-7 Things trend a bit less cold thereafter but there are still some cold solutions. As ever more runs needed.

Very nice GFS 06z FI with most of Europe and a good swathe of the UK under snow cover Just to cheer folks up of course. It will be interesting to see how the 'northerly reload' scenario plays out in future runs. Despite the extended EPS and EC 46 etc, I still think the most accurate guides we have are the medium term NWP output models. The other tools are certainly not without merit but we really can't rely on anything further than 7-10 days at best with our chaotic and fascinating atmosphere.

06z looking better with the upper heights of the Baltic High dispacing further norwards Cold uppers covering more of the UK - we don't want to hog it all in the SE.

Very nice snowy chart for many of us FI well and truly but nice to go to sleep on..

We could well get some ice days Ice Day,,,,,

Icelandic High anyone??

Interesting evolution with the GFS 18z A pocket of pretty cold uppers -8hPa and an decent area of snow across the south of the UK A long way off of course but still nice to see,

Well it is for about half of the run right up to tuesday and the hugs the middle of the bunch and is milder bias at the end.

ECM ENS again looking cold with the Op on the milder side. Warming a bit at the end but the cold option is still strongly represented

Morning all - GEFS looking very good this a.m. with plenty of members breaching the -10 level Happy model watching today - ECM still solid & fascinating period for us all ATM.

Blimey - hope I don't get banned for saying this but this almost a 1947 like chart! PS: Strewth! look at that lot trying to reload down from the Arctic...

Up to Greenland we do go - reload from the Arctic waiting to replenish the Euro cold.

Bitter E wind especially for the south at 168

Well no mild blip with ECM - straight into the cold! A tad chilly at 144hrs

After the 'mild' blip coming up the GEFS trend markedly to cold These are the 850hPa (above) so don't tell the full story i.e. surface cold always important with E'ly synoptics, The T2M are below These paint a decidedly cold picture for the foreseeable...

Ice skating ECM ENS for Holland ... & UK we trust.... At least 8 days in the freezer with the extended ENS Bring it on.

Lovely ECM - poised for retrogression (Hint: Greenland High) and Arctic reload from the N / NE at 240hrs!

GFS 06z looking very promising so far - moving further towards the ECM solution. Nice developing 'Genoa Low' and cold air hanging on and developing over most of England especially the E / SE.

A cracking set of ECM ENS tonight!!

Here are the ECM ENS - pretty decent in my book with the Op on the milder side of the cold cluster again.

'Horrid' ? I would say that's a bit overstated, the mean is still below average and there are some strong cold clusters as well The Control run is a stonking easterly as well as the ECM Control run (not shown above) - so 'horrid' wouldn't be my description at the moment. The ECM shows an easterly. MetO shows trough disription and (by 168) easterlies over half of the UK. GFS is mobile westerly and pretty grim. So ECM + UKMO v GFS at the moment & still a lot 'to play for' IMO.