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Purga

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Everything posted by Purga

  1. Purga
    The first pulse of the SSW is now pretty much over and the mean 60N 10hPa windspeed is just below zero, however - there are two further pulse 'bounces' with the mean falling again through today. Whilst that's going on (from the latest ECM run, from which those charts are derived, there's been 17 days of SSW) we can expect all sorts of scatter and 'interesting surprises' to continue in the models! A fascinating period this indeed !
  2. Purga
    BTW MOGREPS pretty much 100% behind the easterly right through now..
  3. Purga
    Epic run tonight, hope we don't get the morning hangovers.. Enjoy
  4. Purga
    Yes and signs of retrogression Eddie renewed Arctic plunge waiting to top up...
  5. Purga
    No Stuie, the top 2 charts are the actual forecast mean temps and the lower one is the anomaly which doesn't include the sea anomaly.
  6. Purga
    Good cross model concensus on the easterly next week. Probably the coldest T2M forecast for a long, long time!
  7. Purga
    With the predicted easterly I'd say there was a modicum of coolish air to tap into...
  8. Purga
    Only about a -12C 850hPa anomaly expected... poor show - LOL
  9. Purga
    Whatever is Sidney going to do with his nuts all buried in snow !
  10. Purga
    Seriously cold!
  11. Purga
    ECM looking well on track again BTW - nice press release from METO today https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk
  12. Purga
    Mucka - The problem was related to data being made available via GRIB on the FTP servers that the non-institutional sites use, not any problem with the run itself. Sites which have a raw feed of ECM data (such as the Dutch) had the ensembles etc available at the same time as normal.
  13. Purga
    Indeed Nick.... And the coldest suite I've seen this season from De Bilt!
  14. Purga
    The madness...... Barbie Or Huskies... Good fun though....
  15. Purga
    That's been resolved & a full dataset from the overnight has been used as normal - see below:
  16. Purga
    CMC (cross model chaos) then this morning! GEFS trending to milder solutions in line with the latest Op / Control runs then. EPS solidly favouring around 80% pro cold easterly evolution from mid next week in support of the OP. Hint that MOGREPS-15 following the ECM path..... ECM mean pretty bullish for what most want UKMO use a blend of ENS and are still favouring the colder solution.
  17. Purga
    So is this GEM pert Eddie...
  18. Purga
    Yes & a blend of MOGREPS, EPS and GLOSEA. GLOSEA and the 30-day variety of EPS appear to concur,
  19. Purga
    It's enough to make a grown man weep! PS: What was that about a 'weak' easterly?
  20. Purga
    That would be very cold across the south if this chart verifies. What we used to refer to as a lazy wind.
  21. Purga
    Blocking and uncertainty today. There is still a massive range of options available from as early as the 20th and this is highlighted in both the GEFS data and ECM 12z op run so far. I’d expect a few more options in the next couple of days. Keep your seatbelts fastened...
  22. Purga
    Just goes to show that individual operational runs from the models are going to be very unrelaible in the next few days. As far as UKMO are concerned, the array of ensemble data currently available points to a cold easterly by the end of next week as the most probable outcome. This may of course change but at the moment it is as it stands.
  23. Purga
    Is ECM going to bowl a googly?
  24. Purga
    To be fair, 06z is showing easterlies across the midlands and south by day 6 / 2100hrs and T2 temps widely of 3/4 C max. Not deep cold but pretty chilly.
  25. Purga
    To add to this, the 0z ECM run has limited support in its ensembles. There's still a good easterly cluster + a SE'ly cluster (less cold). The op's solution of mild SW'lies received virtually no support.
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