Purga

Not according to the latest METO extended forecast it isn't - quite the contrary in fact! That gives me more confidence than the ever varying GEFs in the current uncharted scenario we find ourselves in.

Absolute CRACKER of an update - one of the best METO's I've ever read!

A clear shift in the GEFs 06z towards colder and extended cold solutions as compared to the 0z run albeit that the Op & Control go the less cold route earler on still. 0z 6z A lot of scatter later on.

Seconds away - round 2 !

Nice chart - thanks Eddie

Looks like ECM has blown a gasket @240hrs

DITTO with bells & knobs on at 216

THis could be the pre-cursor to a massive snowfest! Too far out but fascinating evolution now...

The cracker continues to 168hrs

ECM looking like a cracker at 144hrs EDIT: High is better shaped (elongated) and orientation better for continued bitter easterly

Don't doubt you just surprised at them making such a 'rash' prediction in the face of the model output & the METO text updates today!

Really? I listened to Susan just a while ago on Radio 4 at 12.55 today and she didn't mention anything specific about it being dry. She did say that it would turn much colder after the weekend with very cold winds from Siberia and temperatures likely to be below freezing even during the day over many parts of the country. I felt that it was a pretty bullish endorsement of what the charts are showing and what we are all hoping for - particularly at this range. I wouldn't expect METO or any proper weather presenter to make any specific comments about snow this far out for sure!

Some T2M later runs are giving minima for London of -15C ! Several ice days before that. Take several degrees off that for the countryside at least!

Indeed, the mean is coming down and the cold is extending..

Will we have enough cold air to tap into from the east? Maybe just a tad... Check out the very rare sub 492 dam pooling over Russia. Amazing charts and difficult to single out the most awesome of the awesome.

Oh no I don't like the look of those mild runs Anyway reloaad alert! PS: I'm knackered G;Nite...

Fair to middling set of GEFS @12z BTW check out the T2M's How about the -14C T2M for London !!! EDIT: PS looks like that -14C corresponds with a precipitation spike of 6cm (=60cm snow)!! Imagine the Chaos in London - go figure LOL

LOL retrogression - Round 2 here we come

Epically decent....

HERE SHE COMES.....

MUCH better orientation of the High on the 12z 0z 12z

Comparitively a better run 12z ECM against 0z 12z 0z

Hey where's our Vortex gone! Great NH chart...

Sure I understand your point, 'back in the day' I can remember, even within 24 / 36hrs of an incoming easterly, experienced forecasters unsure as to whether we would get a cold snowy NEly or a very cold dry Ely! We are looking 7-10 days ahead...

There is spread of course but there is significant cold clustering around the -10 / -15 range whereas there is not wiith the minority of 'milder' runs