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Everything posted by Purga
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Please do not adjust your sets, normal service is about to resume.... Pretty wet outlook unless you fancy floating around in the English Channel
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Tided for you ! I lived through it to - never had a winter better since!
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep - ECM still flying the coldie's flag this morning with snow acumulating in the north and the welsh uplands / peak district. Pretty chilly for the rest and maybe a few snow showers coming into the East Coast? Pity it's not winter anymore! -
1962 was a wet cool summer - just sayin'
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There's only so much enthusiasm (very limited!) that one can muster for rain & drizzle after a couple of tasty Beasts - LOL -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Brilliant - Canada has such an awesome climate!
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In the more reliable timeframe a chance of more snow for the north, Wales & W country moors as early as Thursday! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nope - ECM showing max about 58F (14.4C) at 1pm Sat next week. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature-f/20180407-1800z.html Probably due to extensive cloud cover https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/total-cloud-coverage/20180407-1800z.html -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mmm... looks like peaking at about 14C at best with a lot of rain about acc. to the precip spikes. Personally I'd prefer the cold / cooler weather with some decent sunshine and chilly nights with nice low dewpoint air over us. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I suggest you go to Siberia for some real warmth for the next 3 months ! Looks average to cool at best in the UK -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although the outlook is for below normal temperatures with any warmth going into E / SE Europe What happens after D10 is open as the ENS show a very mixed picture. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Potential for some fairly sharp and widespread frosts during and after Easter with Arctic air settling over the UK under high pressure. A mild blip occurs for a few days but then back to the chiller again. Much along the lines to be expected methinks & warm springlike weather is a way off yet. Then And finishes on a very cold easterly! Very similar theme from UKMO Could be tricky for tender plants! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
May I refer the Right Honourable Gentleman, once again, to the inconsistent GEFS outputs at the moment 00z 06z 12z -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much as I'm sure we all appreciate your time, effort and minute by minute exciting up & down snapshots of idividual model runs, it can be a bit hair raising for newbies to follow. A quick glance at the latest GEFS show a very uncertain picture after about 7-10 days at best. The GEFS can give a rough guide but they also vary as much as the Op runs - see below 12z yesterday - Oops it's trending colder later 18z yesterday - Oops now it's trending warmer 00z today - Oops now it's trending much warmer - summers on the way. 06z today - oops now it's trending down again and long term is an enigma! EPS 46 & EPS are along similar lines - interesting to see how it eventually plays out. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not so fast! A cold forecast for sure in the reliable timeframes for all of Europe bar the south Trend forecast is particularly cold for the UK And for the 10 day period to boot... All of which squares nicely with UKMET thinking. Hopefully some more wintry fun for us to come before hibernation calls...