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Purga

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Everything posted by Purga

  1. Purga
    Well, well, well what do you think of ECM 12z then Nick? Seems like the model was eavesdropping on you LOL! Bring it on !
  2. Purga
    Anyone seen a similar chart to this FI recently? The High sinks afterwards but interesting...
  3. Purga
    Yep, that's exactly what I was refering to Tim - just heard the 'ping' on my iphone a few minutes ago - hence the post.
  4. Purga
    Interesting that the very latest METO weather warning updated about 4 minutes ago has both extended the snow and wind from thursday through to friday and now saturday. Furthermore they are talking about uncertainty and delays with the northwards movement of any less cold air so the southern boundary has been moved south. Further spells of snow could also be arriving from the south later! A slowly, slowly edging down of mean upper temps around that time is evident in the 06z GEFS compared to the 0z suite. 06z 0z Small differences like these can make a huge difference to what happens to us on the ground on our tiny Island. Looks like 'blizzardgate' has more in the tank yet. PS: Longer term cold clustering is also edging the mean down as well.
  5. Purga
    Yes, this morning's 0z run shows a noticable dip after friday coinciding with precipitation spikes, suggesting a stalling of the push of milder uppers - hopefully to the snowy benefit of as many folks as possible! Compare the shift below 0z 18z (yesterday) The trend thereafter is to retain the colder uppers. BTW - here I am joining in the agonising over the breakdown whilst outside my window in Sussex a few miles from the coast, it's -3C outside an heavily snowing ! Beautiful in the here and now and I intend to get out and enjoy it today
  6. Purga
    One of the posters on TWO has been in conference with UKMET (I think he may be involved with Highways / Transport) and says they are very bullish about the very cold and wintry theme continuing into next week, this despite the few challenges. He's based in Kent BTW.
  7. Purga
    Thanks for that Nick - reminds me of the state of my guts just before checking the latest model runs!
  8. Purga
    To paraphrase John Cleese --- ' It's not the despair, Nick. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand!'
  9. Purga
    What's sad for me is how the formidable block of very deep cold air see below gets so easily annihilated in a couple of days to this pathetic specimen with all the talk about 'how notoriously hard cold blocks are to move' etc, etc... It seems like this one will be a real powder puff of pushover! It's not happened yet of course and there's still a lot to be resolved but it still looks like the set-up which promised so much has feet of clay. Hope it goes as well as it can...
  10. Purga
    Over on TWO they had opened a thread called something like "The legendary Feb 2018 cold spell thread" to post in. It's now been re-named as " The legendary Feb 2018 quite chilly for 3 days thread " Pretty apt in view of the latest model outputs methinks.... Typical, if not unexpected UK weather.
  11. Purga
    It's actually a Low pressure
  12. Purga
    Blimey! You're in the sweet spot alright Eddie!
  13. Purga
    Which squares with MOGREPS.
  14. Purga
    After the earlier runs today, I was ready with a WIO (winter is over) post refering to the end of the week. BUT after the METO and ECM 12z runs it'll still be a WIO post but this time it's Winter Isn't Over !
  15. Purga
    Another NAVGEM GEM from Eddie - thanks
  16. Purga
    Cheers - good to hear that as i'm sure a good few more in here will!
  17. Purga
    Thanks - but is this still valid for the latest output or from earlier today when the Met forecasts were formulated? The main models seem to have shifted unfavourably for coldies after the 12z runs.
  18. Purga
    Yes well said! You've posted pretty much what I was going to so thanks for saving me the bother! With MOGREPS going the ECM route & UKMO sticking resolutely to a very cold / cold outlook well into March I know where my money is. BTW I can understand some folks reacting to 'poor' Op runs - we're all human after all Steady as she goes guys let's enjoy the days ahead and hope you all get a damn good pasting!!
  19. Purga
    It's a tense moment with high risk and as usual, more runs needed to see how this will play out. Snowmageddon for all or a soggy mess by next weekend? Hopefully not the latter (per GFS) as it would be a sad and swift end to a potentially epic cold spell. 18z GEFs aren't making the picture any clearer - maybe a slight shift more in support of the Op run. The majority still keeping us on the cold side.
  20. Purga
    The GEFS / EPS are not suggesting this and a minute adjustment at this range can make a huge difference 'on the ground' for our tiny island!
  21. Purga
    Trending colder 12z 18z DITTO Just keeps on getting better..
  22. Purga
    Any good folks?
  23. Purga
    Cheers again Eddie!
  24. Purga
    De Bilt ECMF ENS very cold all next week and only rising to 'cold' the week after when the 'noise' occurs - still plenty of very cold runs (majority clustering) though right to the end (9th March)
  25. Purga
    UKMO at 144hrs is **#!$xing well RIDICULOUS ! !!!
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