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Everything posted by Purga
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm sure we'll get plenty of months if not years on end of above average temperature anomolies to come . I guess us coldies are just wanting to milk this current phase for all its worth before it disappears (hopefully not) -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An increasing number of runs showing -10C uppers for Easter Hardly any getting above +5C throughout the whole run. So similar to the last 2 'Beast' signals i.e. a brief 'less cold' phase then Bingo back into the freezer. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Great ! And so the theme continues Every bit as bitter as the current Beast but direct Arctic northerly at the time of year when the Arctic is at it's coldest. Widespread snow / blizzards across the Nation. A cracking Easter weekend if it verifies and GFS pretty damned consistent across several runs now. EDIT: Northerly morphs into a very tasty NE'LY at the end of the run - winter continues.... -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Beast 3 ready to strike This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition. Who's dreaming of a white Easter? And a white April anyone? -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blimey Nick, I didn't have you down as a lightweight ! P19 on the ENS run would do me perfectly as a nice opener to April Yes please Matron...... -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Super chart to welcome in the new month! A number of cold options on the ENS run @ 06z e.g. 26th March 28th March Could April become another bone chiller?? -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are you joining the dark side Gavin - LOL Great runs so far with GFS / IKON prolonging the cold right the way through the runs virtually.. After a brief 'less cold', not mild, midweek look at the following weekend -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Re-phrase feb1991 as "Icon - the leading trend setter - keeps potent e'ly going much longer with an Iconic run." -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Actually not about 5C below normal lowest temps in the morning SS... Across the UK, March temperatures average a daily high of 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) and a low of 3 °C (37 °F). Southern England Average March temperatures High °F Low °F Place High °C Low °C 50 37 Birmingham 10 3 51 38 Cambridge 11 3 50 40 Eastbourne 10 5 52 41 Exeter 11 5 50 37 Ipswich 10 3 53 39 London 11 4 49 38 Lowestoft 10 4 50 41 Newquay 10 5 52 39 Oxford 11 4 46 36 Princetown, Dartmoor Park 8 2 Northern England Average daily temperatures in March High °F Low °F Place High °C Low °C 49 38 Blackpool 9 3 50 38 Grimsby 10 3 44 33 Malham Tarn, Yorkshire Dales 7 1 50 38 Manchester 10 3 49 36 Newcastle 10 2 48 36 Penrith 9 2 50 38 Sheffield 10 3 -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Maybe for you Eddie but there a few odd people that don't live in Dublin - methinks? Models are notoriously bad at being able to pick up convective snowfall which is highly probable with the exceptionally low upper air pool forecast to traverse a large sector of the UK. The SE in particular (where MOST people live) should be most prone. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed after the seeming 'warm-up the ECM 240hr is a ridiculous chart! The bitter cold pools seem to get more intense and larger the more we advance into 'Spring' LOL. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But you had all the snow last time ! Much of the south missed out. -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good charts for coldies. Cracking METO text update today btw, cold enduring right through to April - certainly judging by SS's reaction! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
06z GEFS for London as an example, almost matching the Beast Mark 1.0 levels of cold intensity! -13 / -14C uppers strongly supported + decent precipitation spikes as well = -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's not forget NASA - carrying the freeze blaster torch for us! Anyway, the 06z GFS shows a good cold run pushing the v cold uppers a bit further south this time. Thereafter a bit of a warm up and THEN - back into the freezer... For a bitterly cold start to April?? -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another corker from GFS 18z and right at the end another beaut to sign of with Wonder if the March CET low record could be under threat? Or even the April one at this rate! -
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes - a few more nice sunny / frosty days after the snowy blast. There's even the possibility of a renewed easterly at 240hrs if the UK High gets drawn up towards the Siberian / Scandi High. Stranger things have happened at sea!