Purga

The Arctic High is trying hard to ridge down and join up with the Scandi - and draw the Scandi north. All too far to the east at the moment but let's be grateful for small mercies"

The block is holding It's not mild either The shape and orientation of the blocking HP is much better on this run, the energy just needs to slip south via trough disruption as is being hinted at.

Nice chart Steve but I thought we only dragged NAVGEM in when we were in big trouble... It's been an intiguing winter so far and let's face it this signal for the oncoming blocked easterly has come out of nowhere (in relative terms) and despite (rather than because of) some known key drivers to the hemispheric circulation. An enjoyable ride ahead!

A couple of comments from John Hammond "Strengthening signs now of major UK cold spell lasting through much of next week. Bitter easterly winds will be a feature but significant snow is less clear cut. Severe frost where winds fall lightest across north UK." And regarding the GFS: "Not yet and we shouldn’t discount it. But it’s looking less progressive than it did a day or so ago and edging towards a more blocked outcome in longer range. Enough evidence from other model output to suggest blocked, cold easterly is most probable next week." From my POV the GFS is throwing up a different scenario every 6hrs so until this inconsistency resolves it's pretty useless to draw any firm conclusions except the comparisons with the more steady ECM/ UKMO outputs.

Battle ground GB Cold uppers from the west meeting our very own continental cold pool = big snow potential

The real action looks to be towards the end of next week rather than the initial 'setting-up' phase this weekend. Note the growing cold pool to the east which is often underestimated by the models, especially at this range

It's just been quoted by a reliable man from UKMET Karlos - I'll PM the source if you like?

The latest guidance is MOGREPS only goes out to T+168, at that range only 1 of the 36 did not have a easterly or south easterly in place this morning. Reasonabe outlook for coldies.

And so it goes on...

And a stunning NH view

Anyone spot the Arctic High ridging to the Scandi? A great 192hr - Excellent in fact.

Looking very nice at 168hrs cold uppers on their way

ECM 12z looking good at 120hrs and 144hrs

Maybe of interest to folk here - stats show that GEM is verifying 3rd/4th and often swaps places with GFS.

VERY nice - A STUNNER! Somewhere could get plastered - and no not down at Crewcold's local

Not bad my son, not bad! what will 240hrs bring??

Apologies SS - 'cache' prob Current (better) suite below

The GEFS 6z suite has moved considerably towards a decent old style easterly, there are plenty of members now showing a discrete high at 168 without the jet pushing it away to the SE. Some of them now have a (weak) upper trough caught up in the easterly flow which would give a good snow event to many in the south as well. PTB 1 is a good example . Suite below

Depends what you define as warm?

yes the stats for GEM are pretty good.

Never mind the 18z just have a fantastic NY eve folks & A HAPPY & SNOWY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL! PS : From IF "The opening days of 2018 will bring further phases of wet & windy weather, ahead of a marked shift by nxt weekend into colder conditions (derived from combined effects, driven by a broad pattern change across N Pacific/N America). Longevity of cold period uncertain." ALL THE BEST

Direct quote from a UKMET man Daniel take it for red...

'Mogreps for Sunday 7 Jan has 14 easterlies 2 anticyclonic and 1 NW'

No wonder UKMO are talking about a 'very cold' start to next week

And this looks even better Well it is nearly Christmas....