Purga

Here we are SB

Reverse psychology and tongue in cheek - they're an abomination as is the 'Sceuro High' (whatever the heck that is??) so beloved of BA.

Consistent indicator of a warm Spanish plume type flow at the end of the High Res run on the GFS 18z Goes on to give us a nice Bartlett as the month progresses Northern blocking having gone up in smoke.

12z ENS keep the same story going, above average uppers and continuing unsettled with a faint chance of something colder from the odd rogue runs

Stongingly mild air approaching us from the south at the end of the reliable tieframe on the12z GFS Low teens to start Then warmer Meantime towards the end of the run cold air into Scandinavia But will never reach us GFS Parallel stays toasty right to the end Is it going to be one of those winters where all of N America and Europe are plunged into the freezer and the UK remains just out of range of the cold and stays damp and mild? I wouldn't bet against it!

Meantime back in the real world the ENS paint the usual picture of above average 850hPa temps and lots of rain although things could be drying out somewhat in time - AND - there are a few colder runs appearing in FI land, the mean is still above average. We will need to see more of the colder runs appearing and also coming more into the reliable timeframe - for the time being though it's 'business as usual'.

N America going into the freezer again this season Hopefully we will follow them this time rather than what happened last year.

Still consistent ENS showing above average temps (850hPa) and very unsettled with only the odd colder run in La la land. No cold runs at all (except one tiny blip) in the reliable timeframe Very cold air pouring off N America according to ECM at day 10 - that'll power up the jet BA - it's called the 'lag' and won't happen immediately!

Actually Phil I was being a bit IMBYish (terrible modern word I know), IF that setup were to verify we could be looking at temps maybe up to 17C down here on the south coast in the lee of the Downs - there is a microclimate here that would make it very pleasant and indeed one may be tempted to wear ones shorts - and no I'm not a postie! Anyway it was just a bit of fun as you realised, at that range unlikely to come about.

Nice Spanish plume from GFS 12z By jingo those uppers are warm and if the sun comes out the surface should be as well - shorts again!

Chio, I'm not trying to write off every possible cold spell at all - if that's your implication? I simply can't see anything, at the moment, in the models which indicates much more than a very unsettled period of weather coming up and I'm skeptical about the abilities of any of us, indeed those far more learned than I am to be able to predict much further ahead than say 7-10 days at the very best. Much of the scientific and technical discussion on here is fascinating and very informative but nontheless, I still feel the atmosphere is far too chaotic and complex for us to be able to do more than proffer an educated guess as to what may or may not happen to our weather in 10+ days time, which is what much of the excitement seems to revolve around. There are so many factors involved but it seems there is often a 'fashionable' focus which people harp on about such as SSW or 'spilt Vortex' etc which implies that there is some special overiding importance in these that will determine the onset of a cold spell. Anyway this is the wrong thread for all this so apologies but I needed to answer you and as I always say, if I feel there is enough consistence evidence to me in the more reliable timeframes of an impending cold spell I will surely jump on the ramping bandwagon! I respect everyones opinions and viewpoints but I just post things as I see them and fully respect those who disagree with me, they can probably teach me a lot! LOL

The trouble is last year there was lots of eloquent popycock being floated about SSWs, split vortexs and 'potential' beyond the reliable time frames and it turned out to be pure fantasy - fun but fantasy. That's why I prefer to look at what the models are showing is likely in the higher resolution and more reliaible timescales and they are showing loads of unsettled weather heading for many. That has to be a concern especially to those hit badly last year rather than any fanciful cold shots that may or may not have a miniscule chance of happening. If we saw the hemispheric profiles we are now in say January / february with the more favourable natural forcings in place and much more deep cold available I would feel more bullish about the chances of something cold developing and maybe getting to us in the snow starved UK. In the meantime get the brollies out!

Consistantly above average 850's ENS again and very wet No sign of any trend to cold at all. Even in the North the picture is pretty much the same with maybe a few more colder runs but not many

So the ECM easterly 's gone up in smoke then, not surprising. Looking wet windy and mild for most of the time May get a bit of snow over the Scottish peaks with a little packet of sub -5 850 hPa uppers. Even at 240hrs the mild air still reigns supreme over the UK with the cold Arctic air remaining too far north to do us any good - apart from a bug tease. N Hemisphere view looks good from a proflie point of view but it just doesn't delivery to our part of the world. Probably will put Canada into an early freezer and then lay the foundations for a mass of frigid air to power up the jet - Déjà vu ?

Apart from a couple of odd cold runs the ENS concensus is for above average and unsettled conditions to perpetuate for the foreseeable future We could scrape the odd ground frost if we're lucky and pressure seems to be rising through the medium term.

Whilst we are stuck in very mild uppers being drawn up fron Africa 'eh BA....

GFS 18z FI The mornings runs await!

I know I shouldn't keep doing these but what the heck! Compare Arguably the current ECM 10 day is synoptically the better chart.

Excellent ECM this evening to be sure but a word of caution. Remember THE FAILED EASTERLY OF 2012. Very interesting model watch it has to be said. Need to watch the ENS X model trends and check consistencey over the coming days.

Very wet prospects of immediate concern for many areas and hopefully not an early re-run for those badly hit last winter. GFS FI showing a move to heights developing over Europe and a very mild regime establishing GFS Parallel a somewhat different FI with the N blocking holding more in stu So an unclear further trend after the current wet & windy period courtesy of the displaced southwards jet.

OK happy rampers, there we go But - here is a Nov 1997 chart showing Nblocking, split vortex etc & lots of 'potential' and 1998 turned out to be hopelessly mild. So... nice charts to be sure and good possibilities but anything can happen in our wonderfully chaotic atmosphere & that's what makes it all so fascinating to try and predict. I really hope for a great cold spell to evolve this season, we all deserve it after last year!

Really? Also IanF tweeted earlier this evening "UKMO latest assessment into 15d offers "no sign of any significant cold weather in any output". Beyond: unknown."

Smoke and mirrors then BA? While all are understandably looking for every iota of a chance of something cold developing, I can only see the main event which is a period of very unsettled and wet weather with a southerly displaced jet courtesy of the northern blocking. Flooding could well become an issue again judging by some of the output and as I mentioned the other day, it's eerily reminiscent of the rain fest we endured last winter. Hopefully it'll blow itself out in due course but at the moment we can see the LP train headed straight at us e.g. ECM 240hrs The cold nascent vortex over N Canada spawning plenty of systems which are heading for us being nicely defeclted south by the beloved northern blocking! When there is a 'realistic' sign of cold I'll ramp with the best believe me but I've seen many of these early season wonderful 'potential' hemispheric charts come to nought. Not a popular take on things I know but just as I see it.

It looks like a classic case of an early season -ve AO that looks tantalisingly good on paper but in reality produces nowt much but loads of unsettled cool / mildish weather for the UK. So near but yet so far. Sure it may lead to something better later on but equally it may not! GFS 12z FI is a good example The LPs trundling across the Atlantic will keep us on the mild side of the action - frustratingly and we've seen it so often before.

I'm sure there's a sort of beauty in wet and windy weather.