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Everything posted by Purga
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
Purga replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A good number of the MOGREPS runs are pushing the mild air pretty far north at the end of the week. Let's hope it gets pushed back with equal vigour! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The trouble is when there's virtually complete cross model agreement on a decent cold spell & then just one rougue mild spoiler run gets thrown up, completely unexpectedly...... We all know what happens next ! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A ridiculously mild run from ECM to flatten everyones' spirits and end up with a nice fat Bartlett after the short cold snap is easily blasted away. Let's hope the ECM ENS suite is a bit more encouraging! -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 06 GEFS are showing a slight shift towards extension of the potential cold spell with predictable scatter ofter D10 00z 06z -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes - a rather lack-lustre GFS 18z with a bit of frost perhaps and and fairly rapid descent into mild 'business as usual' crud. Still, maybe the ENS are better and here's hoping for an improved 00z tomorrow morning. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Purga replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A lot of uncertainty but at least the Op & Control appear to be converging towards a colder end run. A lot of GEFS go mild though. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Clear trend this morning with the T2M temps heading mild as March progresses. More unsettled too so W'ly mobile pattern looking favoured. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Control seems to be following and it's not without support. Based on the GEM & ECM runs earlier, I wouldn't bet against the 18z Det horror show - sadly. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Don - a Super Shite Washout ! -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In the meantime GEM is like Oldham - Bl**dy awful The op is predictably heading to the bottom of the pack but is not entirely unsupported. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Really? Looks like an atrocious chart to me. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I believe it's (Control) run at a lower resolution to the Operational but stand corrected if this is not so. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
Purga replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion