[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Just issued - written by @Nick F

Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2023/2024 | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Long range weather forecast for the UK - Winter 2023/2024. Will it be a cold winter?

 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

3 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Any news @Paul?

Down by t'river:

Thanks Shug. It'll be up and running this weekend @snowidea

[Model discussion highlights]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if that small low wasn't there in the Atlantic i'd be confident of a screaming N'ly on this run.

And if it wasn't cloudy today it would have been sunny!

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4967381

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if that small low wasn't there in the Atlantic i'd be confident of a screaming N'ly on this run.

And if it wasn't cloudy today it would have been sunny!

[Forum is slow]

Thanks, I'll have a dig into that and get back to you direct on the ticket. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Peak District may well get plastered. Probably just the wrong side of marginal down here.

These are the snow depth counts from the UKV for tomorrow and Monday mornings where they peak before melting back each day. 

 

Anims of the prec type

 

And the dewpoints + wet bulb heights for info. 

 

 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

49 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Must be my proximity to the Atlantic. 

Yep, some rain lower down and near to the coast in Wales.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Definitely cold here today, and looks like we're heading down to -10c or below overnight. But, was great in the sunshine earlier. 

  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

There's no doubt that if the cold had the same will to to stick around as some have when it comes to having the last word in any debate in here, then it'll hang on uninterrupted until May. Can we maybe move on from 'cold block' gate now, please?

[Forum is slow]

Maybe if you can pm me a har file (assuming it's still happening?) we can see what's happening locally and try to understand, as it's not a widespread issue and not something I can recreate either locally in multiple browsers or on our testing platform.

Edit - don't think you'll be able to pm a har file - so please email it in via the site. 

https://community.netweather.tv/contact/

I recommend sanitising it first, more info here

Generating a HAR file for troubleshooting – Zendesk help

SUPPORT.ZENDESK.COM

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Zendesk Customer Support may occasionally need additional information about the network requests that are generated in your browser. A member of the team may ask you to record a HAR file, or a log ...

 

[Forum is slow]

The thing is, those things are generally cached on the PC/device. which is one of the reasons I told SS to clear his cache. So, perhaps try that or incognito to see if it helps. 

[Forum is slow]

Define slow please? SS posted a pic there of the background map not loading, is that what you're seeing or something else?

[Forum is slow]

6 hours ago, The PIT said:

User and password directly worked 2nd time

 

Ok thanks. I've turned up the error logging a level, so if it happens tomorrow I'll hopefully be able to get an error code which may help to track it down. Please let me know if it happens and about what time.

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Glenmore was as wintry as expected this morning 

  

[Model discussion highlights]

21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Tell tale sign that there is extreme model uncertainty at this juncture, calling anything past 96 hours is quite brave I would say.

The multi-model ensembles are certainly quite widely spread.

 

Clearing out the clutter and removing the more extreme ends of the scale, the 90th percentile is still a wide spread, but there is a direction of travel toward something at least a bit less cold in the medium term. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4964478

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Tell tale sign that there is extreme model uncertainty at this juncture, calling anything past 96 hours is quite brave I would say.

The multi-model ensembles are certainly quite widely spread.

 

Clearing out the clutter and removing the more extreme ends of the scale, the 90th percentile is still a wide spread, but there is a direction of travel toward something at least a bit less cold in the medium term. 

[Forum is slow]

I'd maybe recommend clearing your browser cache and restarting your device to see if that helps, as we've not had anyone else reporting issues and  it all seems to be working normally from what I can see. 

[Forum is slow]

Sounds odd. Do you login with username/ password or with one of the third party options?

[Forum is slow]

It's totally separate to the forum. I'm not seeing any issues on there at the moment on monitoring, server loads or using it. But it could be something network related somewhere. I'll keep an eye on things.

[Forum is slow]

I think the forum may be trolling me.

[Forum is slow]

So, I think we're on the way to getting this resolved. Invision have done some initial work to optimise things in the datacentre, which appears to have reduced the number of issues we've been seeing. So, as they continue with what they're doing over the coming days, hopefully we'll stop seeing them entirely. 

[Scotland Weather discussion]

Nice snowy dog walk here in Aviemore this morning, will head up to Glenmore tomorrow, imagine it's a bit of a winter wonderland. 

  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

11 minutes ago, festivalking said:

GFS still banging the drum for some sort of snow fall in the south west tomorrow. Other models are not so keen.

 

UKV has a bit as well. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Now is probably a good time to remind everyone about the model highlights thread. This thread is, by it's nature, a bit dramatic at times, which is fine and part of the fun of following the models etc. But it's not for everyone and is one of the reasons we set up the highlights threads, so that the most insightful posts (crowdsourced and based on the insightful reaction)  can be viewed from one place. So, if you're looking for a quicker, less dramatic look at what the models are showing, it's definitely recommended. 

And for those using this thread, please continue to use the insightful reaction on the posts you think ought to go over to the highlights thread. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

31 minutes ago, Paul said:

We're getting way off topic here - looser (eg not solely model related) discussions around will it or won't it snow are better suited to the regional or winter chat thread, as we're getting outside the realms of model output with much of it and more into nowcasting or more general forecasts. 

I've clarified the above as my initial version was obviously not worded brilliantly - model based snow discussion is obviously fine. But, when we get more into nowcasting or general forecasting and discussions around that, this isn't the thread.