Shunter

Appears some solar radiation is causing the slight thaw ( remember we have limited cloud thickness at the moment ). The wind has also veered more to about 100degrees meaning any convection is moving North of Thames. Winds will back more ENE around the Estuary in around 3 hours and should later begin to enhance convection. Temps will fall back as Sun recedes so will probably freeze everything around 6pm.

Judah Cohens latest blog also supports a continuation of cold across Northern Europe including the UK over the next two weeks. The link is here :- AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment

Moderate Snow. After a quick temperature rise this morning ( -1c to 0.2C )...the temp has now dropped again to -0.2C DP is -3.1C Wind has risen in last 30 minutes and sky is eerily grey...... About 7CM new snow overnight. 67m ASL

Im just up the road from you and confirm a small rise in temperatures over the past 90 minutes.. Temp now -1.0C ( from -1.3C ) and DP -3.3C ( from -4.5C ) so a milder layer now over us. The Snow that is falling is of a very wet type and causing some ground melt. I would expect a lowering of temps again when precipitation clears.

Radar shows a small streamer with Medium intensity Zone heading from Cambridge ( South West ) to Oxford atm. Thames Estuary stratus cover seems to be thinning and light snow easing. First signs of streamer development perhaps appearing in the Estuary ......one area just east of Ipswich and another just offshore East of Norwich.

Light Snow here ( not fine flakes ) . About 2-3 / 10 intensity. Temp -1.2C DP -3.9C

Estuary has fired up in the past hour light Snow falling now in Shorne West.. Temp -1.7c DP -4.3C

Moderate Snow now. Starting to settle in places. 5/10 Intensity. Temp still 0.8C DP -1.1C The current edge of the "umbrella" of precipitation is now just west of Gravesend heading slowly westwards. There is a heavier stream heading SW from Clacton to West Sussex.

Heavier bursts now edging Westwards.... All Snow now as DP & Temps continue to fall. Main line is East from Clacton to Royal Tonbridge Wells.. XCWeather Temperature animation shows lower temperatures heading into SE :- Temperature Observation Map - Britain (xcweather.co.uk) Temp 0.8C DP -1.0c

All Snow now. 67m ASL 3/10 intensity. Starting to settle. Temp 1.0c. DP -0.9c

1.1c... DP -0.6 very fine grains but looking to stick

Light snow in moderate wind here in Shorne West. Intensity 2/10

Storm Darcy....... Translated from Dutch it reads ........ The KNMI has given a name to the low-pressure area that will provide # snow hunting on Sunday: #StormDarcy. We expect #snow, strong winds and temperatures below zero. In combination with accumulations of # snow and # smoothness, this can lead to dangerous situations.

ONLY on the GFS suite

Has to be one of the best long term forecasts i've ever read for Cold !

It’s been like that time after time this winter in the far SE. Everything seems to move North nearer to T0. What is causing the LP to stick around rather than fade away East?

Radar showing sleet but drizzle here. Temp 3.6C DP 0.7

Yes i think people in the south need to stand back and analyse the most recent NWP output ( over the last 24 hours ). 1. There has been a definitive move AWAY from a HP cell centred across the North to a more Atlantic dominated pattern. 2. The MJO is "retreating " towards stage 6, 3. Teleconnections are showing signs of neutral AO/NAO in the next 7 days. 4. The MET seem to have diluted the HP long term a little. 5. Record breaking warmth in parts of Southern Europe at the moment. So although nothing is set in stone it does appear that the chances for prolonged Cold & Snow is diminishing for the Southern part of the UK ( AT THE MOMENT ). All is not lost but it does appear like a repeat of Cold Snowy North & Slushy/Flooded South is set to continue. If no Snow then let Spring come quickly.

Saturday looking good for the SE corner on Harmonie........

Sleet here after rapid temp rise of -1 to 3c in a couple of hours.

Everyone on Mod thread looking at 10-12 days for the phantom Easterly when cold is already creeping ever closer from the North on every run. wasnt the Atlantic due to come “crashing in” on Monday ? Seems now late Tuesday ?.

Wind at 10hpa went Easterly at 06:00 this morning ( -0.7m/s )....might give a shade more momentum to the block retrogression out East ?

I agree . Heres the12z Op for Monday. All the real cold is draining to SE Europe the same as it always seems to. This already contradicts both Judah Cohen ( AER ) and Gavins ( Weatheroutlook ) views. So for day 6 there is virtually nothing of wintriness in the UK at all. So where is the excitement ?

GFS 6z OP at 168h is now full on +AO/+NAO. I think this SSW is upside down !

Netweather radar shows 100% Sleet across the region now ....lol