Shunter

Shorne West 66m asl. Temp 4.4c, Dp -2.0c. Just one little piece of drizzle thus far around midday.

2.4c. DP -2c. Variable cloud. Wind Northerly

The 30hpa zonal wind speed is currently increasing ( currently just below 40m/S ) which may explain the earlier runs today showing a more progressive jet stream and associated eastward energy burst. However looking at the 12z GFS ensemble mean (below) this increase appears to peak Tomorrow / Monday and then falls away dramatically until the “potential” reversal ( SSW) around mid month. It may be that the latest model runs are now factoring in the slowdown in zonal wind speeds as we move through the coming week. Is so then I would expect to see more of an Eastward correction with the Siberian HP nudging closer.

The 30hpa zonal wind speed is currently increasing ( currently just below 40m/S ) which may explain the earlier runs today showing a more progressive jet stream and associated eastward energy burst. However looking at the 12z ensemble mean (below) this burst appears to peak Tomorrow / Monday and then falls away dramatically until the “potential” reversal ( SSW) around mid month. It may be that the latest model runs are now factoring in the slowdown in zonal wind speeds as we move through the coming week. Is so then I would expect to see more of an Eastward correction with the Siberian HP nudging closer.

Rain now turned to snow again. Temp now 3.9 from 4.3 earlier.

Seems the latest Met O Longer update supports your theory too Steve... https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

moderate Snow again, settling in places. Temp 1c falling

Temp 0.7c. DP 0C 5/10 intensity. Everything covered expect paths and Roads

Because the BBC is probably using "stale" data.

2M 1.6C DP 0C ....Continuous light snow 2/10

light Snow/Sleet 1.9C

Temps & DP rising steadily..........now 2c & 1.1c respectively....warmest I've recorded all day.

Drizzle/Light Rain all afternoon. Temp 1.4c falling slowly.

Heavy drizzle here now. 1.8c 65m asl. NetweatherSnowRadar shows it as Snow tho.

Temperature falling slowly here under cloudy skies. Now -1.7c ! . Quite impressive given no snow cover ( last patch of snow from Jan 12th still remains after 14 days tho )

NetweatherSnowRadar is showing sleet across East Anglia And parts of the Kent North Downs now .

Sleety Rain at 3.1c. Temp dropping rapidly. 67m asl

Temp 4.2c dropping slowly. Moderate Rain.

Interesting PM Update from CPC this afternoon...seems the EC Ensembles today are providing greater weighting across the CONUS ! So maybe some support upstream for the EC solution 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 19 2017 TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GREATEST WEIGHT FOR THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST WAS GIVEN TO THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CANADA ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER ALASKA AND PACIFIC OCEAN AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PREDICTED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS SURFACE TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23 2017 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA, THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC, AND MUCH OF THE CONUS. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE GREATEST WEIGHT FOR THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST WAS GIVEN TO THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION BASED ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST.

Light snow here in Gravsend. 67m asl

moderate Hail here ...temp 3.3c

Looking for crumbs of comfort during the lull in the UK Winter proceedings.............. Latest model discussion preferences from NOAA seem to favour yesterdays 12 ECENS over todays 00GEFS ENS ( and the 06z GFS OP looks similar too ). ...SECONDARY SYSTEM AFFECTING UPPER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY... ...RESULTANT MID-LEVEL VORTEX SETTLING INTO QUEBEC BY THE WEEKEND... FINAL PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE INITIAL UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES OVER NEW ENGLAND...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. WHILE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD VORTEX DIPPING DOWN ACROSS QUEBEC. THE 00Z CMC/UKMET DID BOTH MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH DID NOT MATCH ANY OTHER PIECE OF GUIDANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST AMPLITUDE-WISE...ARE MOVING TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FLATTER 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF MEANS ARE NOT SUPPORTED AS MUCH AT THIS TIME. WILL RECOMMEND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE WHILE SLIGHTLY RAISING CONFIDENCE. IIRC the 12 ECENS held the MLB further North West of the UK which would extend any colder Eastern influence maybe a little longer

It is dry and sunny @ 5000 ft !! TV weather forecasts are dreadful tbh, 90 seconds at best, just a generalisation of overall weather with a presenters smile...waste of time and money

Think this is whats known as Shannon Entropy - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Nuuk_ens.png

Just to add to that ...I work for the Highways Agency and we've just been requested to switch on the under surface carriageway heating on the M4