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Shunter

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Everything posted by Shunter

  1. Shunter
    I' ll back the westward movement please Paul Temp -1.4c 100% Sunshine.....clouds approaching from East and West slowly
  2. Shunter
    A light covering here now temp 0.3c heavy small flakes.
  3. Shunter
    Heavy rain here and very windy. Now Heavy snow...... The rain hitting the window woke me and within 5 minutes it had changed.
  4. Shunter
    Its a small band of mostly light snow that was forecast this morning. Its moving in a WSW direction ( upper level wind ) but seems to be decaying as it meets the precipitation approaching from the North west.
  5. Shunter
    Snow flurries here now. Temp 2.4 & falling
  6. Shunter
    Anybody know when the SE radar will be fixed? It's showing just occasional updates. Have seen light snow heading into Southend imminent
  7. Shunter
    Looking at recent observations , although temps in region are currently between 3-4 c the dew points have recently reduced and are now around or below 0c. Now all we need is precipitation! http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&DATE=1357981200&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&KEY=UK&SORT=3&INT=06&TYP=taupunkt&ART=tabelle&RUBRIK=akt&R=310&CEL=C
  8. Shunter
    Seems that the US have discounted this mornings Ecmwf for the us weekend forecast, it may be the cause of our downstream issues with the ECM op this morning. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd
  9. Shunter
    2pm observations show temps at Norwich & Southend around 1c and DP at 0c. Seems the cold has already arrived into the SE. Temp here is 3.2c todays max to date. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?R=310&ART=temperatur&WMO=03693&LANG=en&LEVEL=140
  10. Shunter
    Latest MJO update shows things moving swiftly through phase 5 at a reasonable amplitude. This I believe equates to more MLB as we move to phase 6. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html I see the Meto have just released their first warning of Snow for the SW on Saturday...and also an updated MRF suggesting colder weather to become more embedded, seems they must have reasonable confidence for this, despite the GFS differences. Current Hadley CET for January stands at 7.6c up till 9th. If this were continue it would beat the all time record for January of 7.5c set in 1916 I believe. I would therefore think that any future movement to a milder synopsis this month is on the law of probability highly unlikely. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
  11. Shunter
    06z T126 - Jet flow moves further South, enables pressure rise around Iceland ...could this signal the change to a rapid build ?
  12. Shunter
    Enhancing PV and a +NAO @ SSW day 12. I don't think so....GFS has lost the plot.
  13. Shunter
    A female meteorologist from Abbey Wood... Steve .....lol Seriously.....it relates to the measurement of uncertainty http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_(information_theory)
  14. Shunter
    Steady as she goes ...... The updated NAO spread has not waivered since yesterday...still forecasted to go negative from tomorrow till around 13th before rising slightly and then dipping again to a marginal - value. http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif The AO spread however displays "Shannon Entropy" after 16th Jan...anything from a +3 value to a -6. http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif
  15. Shunter
    Yes I agree, its almost like they "tinker" with the starting ingredients for OP & CTL runs to see if they display seperate outcomes....maybe they should leave initialisation data as raw only for Operational runs. Maybe then we would see greater stability in the 72-96 hr window. The 06z GFS Op brings the back the PV which goes against its own hemispherical pattern and any SSW propogation for this timescale. Questionable logic in the input data or just pure chaos theory thats the question???
  16. Shunter
    Yes and with an Easterly wind component and higher intensity I'm sure conditions could be more favourable further south than what Ian has stated.
  17. Shunter
    Doubt it, but heres the latest American forecast from NOAA that includes the recent 12z EcmWF data..... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd
  18. Shunter
    The 12z will be eagerly awaited today thats for sure........ Just for the record, the updated NAO table has a slight ensemble improvement to negative values today .... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
  19. Shunter
    Well they have covered nigh on every meteorological permutation in that outlook and peppered it with "May's,perhaps & possibles". Surely would have been easier to say "aint got the foggiest"......lol
  20. Shunter
    Yep and this mornings BBC forecast showed 11c for the SE today, it reached 8c in Croydon ( and that includes urban heating ). Regional and national forecasts differ widely even when shown minutes apart at times......ignore !
  21. Shunter
    Despite returning to positive values in the coming 2-3 days, the latest AO forecast is showing a quick reduction to negative values of -2 to -3 up to 14th so a strong agreement from this perspective to poleward blocking. The latest NAO however does remain around neutral, would like to see this fall into neg values also to add support to blocking.
  22. Shunter
    Joe B's latest 30-45 day update here. Alludes to forthcoming US and European cold spells with the UK seeing two peripheral "hits". http://t.co/btVgWw51
  23. Shunter
    I tend to agree, although no models back this up, I cant see this airmass retreating at the rate forecasted. Where does this leave us?. I still think the HP cell will retrogress towards iceland.
  24. Shunter
    Nearly every operational GFS run over the past two days has made westwards movement of the Russian HP in its early timescale and every time its been dismissed by the Professionals and amateurs alike. Seems to me this large HP cell is retrogressing slowly towards Iceland and maybe beyond. The computer models logic does not see this and corrects to norm as soon as possible on each operational run giving the impression that the HP is slowly decaying or being moved back East. Maybe just maybe everyone has underplayed the synopsis unfolding before us ?
  25. Shunter
    06z Op further south again at T108. Looks like the Trough is gonna slide under the Eastern block.
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