Shunter

The GFS Low if it verifies WILL cause a thaw and Snow to Rain event in the SE. Lets hope its just the progressive nature of GFS to breakdown and revert to norm. Still worth keeping an eye on in later runs though.

I remember both 1987 & 1991 events started with Snow Grains. Forecasts were saying Dry but the grains became Flurries within a few hours. the event started 24 -36 hours before the forecasted start time both times IIrc.

Agree. But given the almost unanimous agreement of abnormal cold and snow an early headline advisory ( heads up ) would appear sensible to those planning long distance travel over the weekend.

Hopefully this will improve tomorrow. Heres a good link for next week ..............http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2 Run it through for latest forecast precipitation.

Both run from relatively "stale" data... which translates generally to 18-24 hours behind current model runs. So expect both to start reporting lower temps and maybe snow flurries from tomorrow.

and now according to 12z GFS Op the SE gets a 3 day Freeze followed by a mudfest as warm air pushes north from the SW.

And now Sunday. The “epic” charts are always 8-9 days away. Exactly why it is called Fantasy Island.

Yh and the Rock Salt salesman are laughing all the way to the bank.

and quite right too..........BBC Snowwatch euphoria rules in the MOD thread ( Snowmageddon, etc etc ) .....however look on GFS 12z OP and you see a 4-5 day Cold spell with snow showers mostly in the East followed by gradual thaw as Snow-Rain as LP with associated warm core arrives from SE. Remember 3 days ago we had snow flurries arriving in SE this Tuesday....this has now moved back to Friday/Saturday.

Just vacated the “classroom “ and this post is the most sensible I’ve read this morning. Sometimes it’s best to stand back and look at the bigger picture. I think it’s obvious we are going to get colder, with winds expected to be from an Easterly quarter. Depending on Where the HP lands determines whether we are dry or otherwise. So in a nutshell , cold ( potentially becoming colder ). Dry initially but possibly snowy as time progresses with the SE this time being in the immediate firing line. With the Jetstream “ retiring” to Africa, at least we can escape the mild SW / Nw dross that’s been dished up down here over the past few months.

not at all , just feel that our priorities are wrong in respect of the balance between society development against scientific advances. We have too many honorary scientists, lawyers and media artists and not enough quality tradesmen.

So we line up with a SSW....an Easterly QBO, High amplitude MJO in favourable phase and an almost record breaking Zonal wind reversal......and what do we get.....exactly the same ..strong Polar Vortex and a 200mph Westerly Jetstream. So where is the justification in all the teleconnective jargon..... no doubt they will find another elusive piece of the atmospheric jigsaw that caused our favourable winter scenario to be sabotaged. No doubt also that the UK tax payer foots the bill for the further development of atmospheric studies.....money that would / should be better spent on building Infrastructure and the NHS.

I doubt it, balmy Southerlies more like

at T+288 the GFS OP gives Eastern Europe an early taste of spring ! It couldn't, could it ? #Easterly Zonal

right.........so a further 4 days on ???? Still the same ! Surely the Jet should be responding to Easterly Zonal wind influences ( if indeed they ever arrive ) ?

Synoptically appetising yes.....but in reality its 16 days away and shows temperatures of between 4 & 6C nationwide. Nothing out of the ordinary.

I would tend to agree with your statement. From an atmospheric perspective this is undoubtably a perfect opportunity to witness and analyse the global effects of an SSW as it occurs. The scientific excitement here is perfectly understandable. However at ground level ,today’s 12z GFS ensemble mean shows a slightly below average temperature profile for the next 16days, so currently very much standard fare for the UK and not a mini ice age as some other comments seem to indicate. Back to the present, the current zonal wind speed at 60n 10hpa is still showing a reasonably healthy 26 m/s. So if we are to see a reversal ( currently scheduled for around midday on 10th Feb ) we should expect to see almost an emergency stop here tomorrow and maybe some improved model runs also.

So 3 days after the SSW event and its associated Easterly wind reversal, how is the Jetstream still pumping out nigh on 200MPh winds across the Atlantic?

A light flurry in Canvey Island . Temp 3c looks like the Thames May be enhancing convection.

Shorne West. Temp 1.5c, DP -1.9c . A few flakes, now melting on impact.

Shorne West. Temp 2.0C. DP -3.1C Almost cloudless

Shorne West 66m asl. Temp 4.4c, Dp -2.0c. Just one little piece of drizzle thus far around midday.

2.4c. DP -2c. Variable cloud. Wind Northerly

The 30hpa zonal wind speed is currently increasing ( currently just below 40m/S ) which may explain the earlier runs today showing a more progressive jet stream and associated eastward energy burst. However looking at the 12z GFS ensemble mean (below) this increase appears to peak Tomorrow / Monday and then falls away dramatically until the “potential” reversal ( SSW) around mid month. It may be that the latest model runs are now factoring in the slowdown in zonal wind speeds as we move through the coming week. Is so then I would expect to see more of an Eastward correction with the Siberian HP nudging closer.

The 30hpa zonal wind speed is currently increasing ( currently just below 40m/S ) which may explain the earlier runs today showing a more progressive jet stream and associated eastward energy burst. However looking at the 12z ensemble mean (below) this burst appears to peak Tomorrow / Monday and then falls away dramatically until the “potential” reversal ( SSW) around mid month. It may be that the latest model runs are now factoring in the slowdown in zonal wind speeds as we move through the coming week. Is so then I would expect to see more of an Eastward correction with the Siberian HP nudging closer.