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Everything posted by Shunter
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Shunter replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That will be based on yesterdays data......and was correct then. Any changes on tonights 12z runs will not materialise until tomorrow. -
Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Shunter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Strange winter......-NAO for the first and last days of the season only.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Shunter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Maybe in Yorkshire Frosty, but down here in the SE we have barely seen a covering this winter, let alone drifts. we ve been let down too many times ...still hoping though- 1,198 replies
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Had 4 or 5 short snow squalls here today. Mostly all melted now in the sun, still some lying on frozen ground in the shade. Perspective needed.....nice to see but not a beast. Not even a snowball let alone a snowman. Cmon UK, you can do better than this !!
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Just looked at 4 different radars for the south east and they are all different. Netweather shows almost total light snow.....we have blue skies and sunshine overhead. Accuweather shows a couple of rain Showers ( yes Rain ) weather Radar looks about right, but shows rain shower over St Albans atm. Rain today ......looks a mess and crashes when you zoom in. Who to believe? Met office seem to have been the most accurate to date. If only their 3-5 day forecast matched their now casting. Temp 1.1c. DP -5.2c
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Convection seems to be falling away ? Wind has now turned more northerly too. Temp -0.4C DP -8C
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Now we have Snow. 6-7 on the Murr scale. Light drifting in strong wind. temp -0.5c. DP -8.2c
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First pink echoes showing in Thames Estuary. https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar Moon nearly obscured here. temp and Dp rising slowly. T 0.6c , -6.9c DP
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First couple of pink echo's appearing in the Thames Estuary. https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
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UK Radar just starting to show shower activity developing off Tyne & Wear in the last 15 minutes. Expect to see the same further South down to the Channel as we move through to midnight/Early hours. https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
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Cloud rolling in here now. Temp risen from -1c to -0.3c in last 15 mins. DP risen also.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
2.6c Temp -6.0c DP -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Watch the TV forecasts change also in relation to the weekend. They are ALWAYS 12-24 hours behind with the public TV forecasts. I'm sure the presenters must feel the frustration we feel also at times, especially those that pursue meteorology as a hobby too. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Rain that falls on frozen ground creating ICE. Usually only temporary during a general thaw -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Shower activity forming now North of Groningen ( Nederlands ). http://weathernews.co.uk/radar/ -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
AMBER Alert issued for parts of the SE on Tuesday by the Met Office. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Any news on latest radar soundings or cloud buildups anyone? temp 0.5c. DP -6.3c -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Shunter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That forecast is based on yesterday’s model charts -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Shunter replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
yh I agree......I cant believe how all of the HP to our North and East just evaporates. With all the major organisations stating NW Europe going into the freezer for an indefinite period how can it all dissolve in 4 days ? -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Shunter replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS ....please be wrong....... Absolute joke if GFS verifies..........Most of England out of the game by Friday. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Shunter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
yes its been moving it northwards for several runs now..........was a 5% chance on yesterdays GFS ensemble suite.... 15-20% on tonights 12z GFS. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Shunter replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The breakdown from the SE starts earlier on this run.....all over by Friday morning for our contingent. -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Shunter replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As per GFS, if it follows this trend its over for Southern England after 4 days. IIRC this is how the 1991 event ended for us in the SE. Promises of Blizzards on the BBC and in the media ...it turned to rain after an hour and melted our laying 15cm in 12 HOURS. We need this to correct South ASAP....not worth the risk imo. -
SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards
Shunter replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
BBC are a political mouthpiece above all else. Not interested in weather unless it wins votes. Not worth the licence fee ( TAX ) -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Shunter replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Its all over for the South by next Friday if the GFS OP verifies. Fingers crossed its a rogue run.