Shunter

Dont wish to spoil the party so to speak but there is some milder air now spreading into the Northern Isles which at Skye for instance has increased temps by 7c in the past three to four hours. Would this be the upper air warm sector of the LP that will travel down the country tomorrow? If so is there any chance that this mild sector will reduce as the trough moves south? Seems incredible that temperatures can be so high considering the source of this air. The link below shows clearly a number of Northern sites reporting temps between +2C/+4C at 9pm http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/aktframe?TYP=temperatur&KEY=UK&LANG=en&ART=tabelle&JJ=xxxx&SORT=2&INT=24

Gravesend East. Clear. Oc falling slowly

I fully understand embedded cold scenarios thank you. What I was stating though is that the 06z operational run at T120 brings about a return of what we currently have in the South. The run shows the Trough moving N/ NE bringing in turn warmer dew points and a snow to rain event as it progresses. Yes it is only one run from one model but that is what it shows.

Normal service resumed on 6z operational run. Cold spell finished for the South by the 4th Jan.... http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1322.png Just hope this is an outlier and not a new trend ! Deja vu ?? http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1503.png

Sleety mix here at Gravesend in heavier bursts. Temp 3.8c steady

Somebody ought to check the forum archives, I'm absolutely sure we had identical issues last Xmas and the Xmas before that with the GFS model. IF it is omitted data then I would expect to see GFS fall back into line for tomorrows 12z run. Also I seem to recall model differences during the previous New Year schedule.

I've been observing the ensembles for London after every GFS run for the past three days. The warm up "hump" has diminished slowly with every run. The mean was about 7c two days ago on 28th, it is now about 2c with an increasing number of members bypassing this spell completely. http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png There is also in excess of 80% of members now keeping the 850 temperature's around -5 or below through to the end of the run on the current 12z op. So in terms of trending for the south of the UK it definitely seems we are moving in the right direction towards a cold synoptical pattern by eoy.

very little difference netween the 06z & 12z op runs on GFS at T+168

And just to emphasise how imbedded this cold is, the current temperature at tulloch Bridge at 5pm was -15.6c ( 3f ).

turning sleety now in gravesend East. Temp fallen from 2.3c to 1.7c

Now turned back to rain here. Still 1.1c Incidentally the Gravesend Broadness recording point is actually in Swanscombe on the marshes. Its recording 2.6c at 1am. The warmest is been for about three days and this system came from the arctic !!

Heavy burst of snow now in Gravesend. Temp 1,1c steady. Seems whats falling is turning back to snow as it edges out of london. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

I live about a mile from that camera...it is turning more to snow now. Very wet though

Got about 20% snow in lightish precipitation.

getting a few flakes now Kold. Funny it feels really warm outside atm.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Look at london and see how its magically turned to rain

Started raining in Gravesend

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ Its visibly turning to sleet as it heads over the City !

The precipitation seems to losing insensity as it moves out of scotland. Is this expected or is it expected to re-intensify as it hits the colder air further south?

The next shower is moving straight at whitstable.

showers seem to be beefing up in the Estuary now http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Seems to be an organised band of snow heading towards the Thames Estuary. You can see it forming off the dutch coast on this link:- http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar Watch the flow and you'll get an idea of where it should hit land. Wonder if this will kick start a Thames streamer ???

Gravsend East. Temp 0.0c DP -0.8 Lovely orange sky now as sun breaks through the clouds. As the cliche states " Red sky in morning,sheds on fire" Clear slot coming into the Thames estaury now but another band spinning around Norfolk coast and should move SW into region in a couple of hours.

just a side thought........ Isnt it strange why neither Philip Eden or Hadley have updated the daily CET for several days ? Perhaps the political implications ( ie: truth being seen ) during the current Climate conference have something to do with it !

about 15cm's here in Gravesend East this morning. Temp -0.3 DP -0.9