Shunter

Yeah saw that. The low seems to be winding itself up as it travels along the german and Dutch coastline.

Light showers showers forming and moving into EA and SE. Radar shows readily turning to sleet and snow as they enter the Thames Estuary. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Its not been delayed at all. Precipitation for Essex & Kent was forecast to be showery in nature b4 6pm as shown on Sky, BBC and on GFS.

Snow reports coming in from France this morning as far north as Paris. -5C 850's now into the South East of the Uk too so potential is there.

NOAA highlighting poor run 2 run model consistency in their early morning discussions. They are favouring the ECM current solution for the US though. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

is it just me or does somebody seem to be smiling on us !!! http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2281.png

Interesting european ensembles for gfs 6z... The operational run is a cold outlier for Paris and a warm outlier for Reyjavic. Moscow and Athens both show a warming trend but Helsinki and Oslo appear well clustered. This combined would seem to indicate a scandi high pressure cell becoming the overiding factor in the next week or so. On to the 12z's...

Interesting update from Joe B******* over on Accuweather. Seems our potential cold spell is attracting interest from the US. Apologies but I could not get the link to work properly.

I hear all this talk about NOAA dismissing GFS but looking at their own track record in relation to MJO forecasting shows just how inaccurate they can be. I've been watching the 40day mjo forecast for the last 15 days and they have got it wrong every single day. The latest forecast is linked below for reference. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjoindex/index/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_membera.gif CFS forecast updated today also shows increasingly milder outlook for the British Isles in both December and January. Both months had been showing below average temperature forecast for the past few weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif Strange considering todays developments, be interesting to see who is on the money

NOAA have completely discounted the 00z GFS run this morning in favour of the ECM solution ( 3/12 & 4/0 runs ). http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation Brief explanation...

well the MJO doesn't appear to be listening to NOAA's forecast, its heading through phase 7. http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif CFS update doesn't bode well for Dec or Jan....a warming trend

Interestingly... the 06z operational GFS was totally rejected by NOAA today in their discussions. "THE 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN WAS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS GFS PREDECESSORS OVER THE PAST DAY AND OTHER OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SO IT WAS DISCOUNTED TODAY." Model of the day - 0z ECM ensembles. Confidence high ( 4 out of 5 ). I would say we might just see a different GFS solution tomorrow

Yes ....and this type of mild incursion is often the prelude to a major cold blast

18z GFS T150 ......Atlantic Low heads North East and Arctic High South West on a collision course. Who will win this round ? http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

Huge scatter on the GFS 12z ens....and the operational run was not without support. However having said that one member still drops to -17 for London !! http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8884/gens-5-0-372_tde1.png Intriguing to say the least.

Its a developing synopsis, lets see if the consistency remians as we head through the next 48 hours or so. The 06z op brings -14 850's into Kent on 15th December. NOAA are still highlighting great uncertainty in their early morning discussions.... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html Although the timeline hasn't reached the ECM longer forecast reaches yet, there is still some other support for this blast from the East here.. http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

the 06z brings the initial belt from the east at T312 so moving forward http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn3123.png

Building blocks are coming together... Teleconnections are looking favourable for NH blocking. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif MJO possibly heading into Phase 7 soon http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

The GFS ensembles reintroduce a couple of colder runs for London in the 6z run http://85.25.71.112/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png Although still predominantly wet there are signs of precipitation reducing as we head into December, so maybe just a chink of daylight appearing. As long as the jet remains to the south and with the possiblity of the MJO entering phase 7, we always have a chance of an anti cyclone appearing at short notice, so literally a question of riding out the storm at the moment.

CFS European temperature profile updated...... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif Shows a slight warming ( compared to previous forecast ) across North West Europe but still average or below for periods December to April overall. Will be interesting to see how these forecasts "play out" if this current trough persists for a few more weeks.

It has updated now ( 2nd November ) with signals for strengthening in the coming months.

Here in North Kent I think distinctly average would be the best way to describe Summer 2009. The predominant factor throughout the summer though has been the wind. The lack of any prolonged high pressure combined with the continuous southerly tracking jet has delivered higher than normal windspeeds throughout. Indeed I've witnessed as lot of tree damage on occassions caused by the ferocity of some of the gusts. Even during temporary anticyclonic spells North Kent encountered cold easterly winds of idenitical intensity. Looking forward to a quieter Autumn now !!

6.5c for me pls