Sky Full
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Posts posted by Sky Full
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I don’t know about the possible autumn ‘heatwave’ but this little GFS 0z progression for the week beginning 2nd November looks unsettled, wet, windy and even cold at times, to me…
Might be a prelude to something a little less Summery, perhaps?
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5 minutes ago, wimblettben said:
Pictures I took around 8:30AM this morning of some dark looking unstable mid-level clouds before a load of showers came in an hour or so later.
‘Moody’ skies alright! I love interesting cloud forms. Here we’ve had heavy rain for about an hour, now easing. Radar says the skies will clear to sun in about 40 minutes, so we might have a useful day.
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A few dry periods between frequent heavy showers today - sometimes intense rainfall for several minutes - but no more thunder or lightning here - yet. Some are forecasting heavy thundery showers for tomorrow so we will see what happens, but remaining pretty mild for late October with absolutely no sign of anything resembling frost yet.
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Potentially stormy conditions forming in the Atlantic from early November, according to the GFS this morning. Might well affect Wales with high winds at some point. Too early be accurate at this time but worth keeping an eye on - could change completely, or could intensify…….
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Heavy rain and gusty winds here overnight and 100% overcast this morning although dry at the moment. Leaves now falling like confetti everywhere and some trees are already almost bare. Sad to see so many ash trees around here which probably will not put on any leaf next spring due to die-back. However, the ash in the hedgerows seems largely unaffected so far, so maybe the species will survive long term. More rain forecast for today, tomorrow and most of next week but still no news of the hose-pipe ban lifting…..
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Superb weather here at the moment - sunny with light clouds, very little wind, 20degC. Could easily be talking about June or even July but it’s nearly November, for goodness sake! I can’t help wondering how the winter is going to turn out but an extremely benign season would not be unwelcome given the cost of electricity and heating oil…..
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On 18/10/2022 at 23:04, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Yea I need that compromise. Like i've said before I'm a tiny 7 stone thing with no fat on me so I really feel the cold. So I'm trying on this as long as I can! Got another Merino wool jumped today to help keep me warm! Can always wear a fleece on top too or get a fleect hoodie thingy
I draw the line when I need to put on gloves and a scarf - indoors!
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Extraordinary light show here earlier this evening as the line of intense showers passed through - very active cloud to cloud sheet lightning overhead accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes. Very unusual for this time of year but spectacular to watch especially as it was after dark and the whole sky was flashing, lighting up the horizon. Weird weather.
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First chance I’ve had to post this but we experienced the most extraordinary light show here earlier this evening - around 8:30pm. As the band of intense showers passed over, the cloud to cloud sheet lightning directly overhead became almost constant for a while, accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes. I can’t remember ever seeing this kind of electrical activity at this time of year except once in southern Spain while on holiday years ago. The radar showed the storms moving quickly north into the Irish Sea and I would have loved to be on the north coast around Fishguard where I imagine the sight would have been spectacular over the sea. I am struggling to understand what is causing these conditions to occur (second night in a row) at this time of year when we went through the heat of the summer and never saw one storm here…..but I am enjoying it!
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11 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
Fairly active storms off of Pembrokeshire, which may clip the coast there. There are also some developments off the south Devon coast now, as predicted by the models. These don't appear to be electrified...yet
Although the sky overhead is currently clear there is now frequent but distant lightning visible to the south and west of me, although no thunder yet. These showers look to be moving north towards me but whether they will sustain their activity by then is questionable. I might have to stay awake until after midnight to find out!
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Although the sky overhead is clear, I can see distant lightning on the southern horizon now which must be linked to the string of heavy showers moving north towards Pembrokeshire. I think they will pass through after midnight and perhaps I might hear some thunder this time!
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Well the autumn so far has been relatively quiet and there isn’t much sign of winter yet. I’m not unhappy that we haven’t had any storms which merit a name, yet, and at the moment it looks benign for the next couple of weeks too. We’ve had some windy weather, and some very wet days, but the temperatures are holding up well. From a selfish perspective I welcome these conditions because I’m not having to use the heating oil, and I can continue to do useful work outside. I can remember several November 5ths in the 1950s and 1960s when the weather was already very cold and frost was not unusual, so the lack of frost in early November these days appears to confirm a change in the climate from my perspective. But it doesn’t mean that we will not see prolonged cold weather later in the winter because conditions can change dramatically in only a few days with very little prior warning even by the most capable computer models. So keep watching the models and don’t worry about the lack of cold at this stage of the season,
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Superb clear starlit night here tonight with Jupiter very visible to the south-east. The Milky Way is also clearly visible with no clouds to obscure the view. A windy day today, with regular strong gusts but also mainly sunny and no rain. Tomorrow we might be dry again with less wind. Fingers crossed, then.
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14 hours ago, snefnug said:
Yes, same here. Beautiful balmy morning promising many plans, albeit accompanied by a gusty and fresh wind, only to be rained off - a lot! Definitely chilly out there, misty, dark and wet.
Saw a distant flash of lightning on the horizon last evening on the way home, but couldn’t hear the thunder. Not surprising there was thunder about given the intensity of some of the showers yesterday but today has started sunny and calm, with hardly any breeze at all. Later we are to expect rain moving in from the south and winds to strengthen again. Yes, it’s Autumn proper now!
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A calm, misty and very Autumnal start here today. Everything is still soaking wet from the rain which fell most of yesterday. The local stream is filling up and flowing strongly now, but I have heard that the Pembrokeshire reservoir at Llys-y-Fran is still half empty. I haven’t been up there to take a look but find this odd given how much rain we have had recently. Might take the rest of the winter to refill it I suppose, but Welsh Water have some explaining to do given that we had a three hour loss of water the other day due to a burst main. Hardly seems to be a month going by when they don’t have a pipe burst somewhere around here….
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On 24/07/2022 at 07:35, Weather-history said:
This from December 22 1938 Telegraph, an article by C.E.P Brooks
Quite an early newspaper reference to what is now called ‘the Greenhouse Effect ‘ and which was first developed as a theory by Eunice Foote and John Tyndall in the 1850s - very prophetic.
Meet the woman who first identified the greenhouse effect
WWW.CLIMATECHANGENEWS.COMEunice Foote demonstrated the heat-trapping properties of carbon dioxide at a scientific conference in 1856, newly digitised records show-
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Natures beauty never ceases to amaze me….
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After the recent unsettled, windy, wet spell, it’s a really nice start to the day here. Quiet, calm and nearly cloudless as the sun rises and I hope it will stay that way at least for today. Have reluctantly started to use the heating again but trying to keep the thermostat at least a degree lower than usual. It’s not too difficult to wear warmer clothes rather than have warmer radiators…. The price of oil will make the next tankful very expensive so I want it to last as long as possible! Roof repairs in August and upgraded insulation should help through the coming winter but at the time it was the leaks which were the main concern - now it’s the price of oil! Wish I could afford solar panels….
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An interesting five day progression from the ECM 0z:
This would be an interesting development in January but not so good in late September. Could bring some chilly temperatures overnight though.
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A possible return to more settled conditions for mid September as predicted for the 18/09 this morning by the:
ECM.
GFS:
GEM:
I think it would be nice to have these conditions back for a time before the inevitable Atlantic storms of October and November arrive.
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I have never actually witnessed a monsoon season in the countries which suffer from it, but the rain here is what I would imagine ‘monsoon season’ to be like at times. We are getting deluges of heavy rain every half an hour or so lasting ten to fifteen minutes and everything is now waterlogged. The pond is filled to overflowing and the seasonal ‘stream’ which forms in the unmade road here (runoff from the surrounding fields) has reformed for the first time since the Spring. Oh well, at least we needn’t worry about water shortages in the next few weeks….. The centre of circulation of this slow-moving low pressure system appears to be off the south west coast of Pembrokeshire now and is slowly moving east, so by this afternoon I expect the wind direction to have changed to a north-westerly and the shower activity to have moved away to the east. Maybe we can dry out a bit on Friday and Saturday!
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Continuing the very unsettled theme here which has defined the weather all week. Frequent showers with bright breezy spells in between and when the showers arrive they are heavy, going on torrential. Every night this week I’ve been woken up at some point by really heavy rain and the ground is now showing signs of saturation. No actual thunderstorms though, just really heavy rain. It hasn’t taken long to balance up the rainfall deficit from the summer months.
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Another torrential tropical downpour in progress in this part of Pembrokeshire which, with all the combined rain over the last couple of days, should be helping to make a difference in the reservoirs by now. There certainly seems to be plenty of excess moisture in the atmosphere right now, but whether this is partly of volcanic origin or simply evaporating from the sea due to above average temperatures, I couldn’t say. We haven’t seen any lightning or heard any thunder in this area but I wouldn’t rule out some storms if the weather gets any more active. In the meantime, more rain on the radar heading this way accompanied by gusty winds.
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6 hours ago, andy989 said:
Yes strong winds this morning. Gazebo was blown far down the lane and some hefty oak branches down
Wow! That looks dramatic! We currently have another line of squally, heavy showers currently working their way north across us, with an even heavier lot on the way according to the radar. This follows a fairly pleasant breezy day, with plenty of sunshine. Such a sharp change from summer to autumn over the last two days - coincidentally occurring right at the start of meteorological autumn too. Looks like the week ahead is going to be very unsettled with plenty of welcome rain, but I’m not so keen on the high winds at this time of year!
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Showery and mild again today. The large flocks of migratory starlings seen in this area last year are returning now - I’m not sure if this is earlier than usual or not since I haven’t previously noted the date….. They seem to be arriving in good numbers though, which is encouraging for their survival.