Sky Full
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Phew! Hot and sultry today with a thin veil of high cloud at times which didn’t do much to moderate the temperatures. We to Carmarthen today where the thermometer was reading 29C (but this is not a reliable measurement!). A little dribble of rain here in the last 30 minutes has now passed over us towards the north but more is heading our way for this evening. The gardens and the farmland around here will be very grateful for every drop! With a widespread thunderstorm warning out for Sunday, it looks like our long spell of settled summer weather is about to end…..
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13 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:
I do feel for your poor plants in such a challenging soil, at least mine is what one might consider 'normal' (apart from an abundance of stones in it!) but nevertheless still needs it's fair share of irrigation by human hand in such prolonged dry spells (well, not really a spell any more, is it?
). Signs seem to be firming up of somewhat wetter but still fairly warm conditions taking hold from the forthcoming weekend. Below is a chart courtesy of weatheronline.com for Sunday. Sorry I'm no expert in posting charts and as a result of my humble efforts the scale went AWOL but what it shows is 10 - 20 mm for most parts and 5 - 10 mm for the NW. MO seems to be on board with forecasting showers from the weekend too. Whether we will see thunderstorms remains to be seen though!
Yes, some rain is forecast for Wales over the next few days but the models don’t all agree on the amount…
These show accumulated rainfall over Wales up to 1:00am Monday morning:
GFS UKMO
The UKMO is quite a bit more reserved about rainfall totals over the next four days, but I think it’s fair to say that the west will likely be wetter than the east!
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The next couple of days will probably see this spell of lovely summery weather peaking for my location with more unbroken sunshine and temperatures probably topping out at around 26C. After that things may turn a little more unsettled for the weekend and next week temperatures are likely to be 6-8C lower, generally. There are some indications that another warm/hot spell could occur towards the end of the month but it’s too far off to rely on, yet.
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The steady rain this morning has now eased off and it’s just cloudy and very humid now. Hot and dry conditions now forecast for the next four days with maximum temperatures at around 25C. This is turning out to be a proper flaming June all right. I am wondering if these general conditions will persist into July in which case more heat records may fall this year.
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The rain has arrived here - nothing to get excited about but at least the ground is getting wet. No sign of any thunderstorms though. Doesn’t look likely to last very long - maybe a few hours - but maybe some more tomorrow?
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15 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:
Update on hedgehogs: At 6 pm he appeared from near the garage where he found a dish of water, then made his way towards the backdoor where I put out some cat food for him. Didn't seem to mind in the slightest me walking back and forth past him, so got a good shot of him. Even one of the cats was looking on, somewhat bemused by it all!
And just half an hour ago I found another one on the garden path, slightly smaller still at 6 inches. He too had a small munch of cat food. Just hope i can get them both over this extremely dry period.
Brilliant! So important to put water out for wildlife in these conditions. The nearest river to us has almost dried up and all the usually wet ditches and culverts are completely dry. We do need some rain but there’s nothing substantial in the immediate forecast.
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Here we go … MO weather warning for thunderstorms!
Met Office issues thunderstorm warning for all of Wales
Met Office issues thunderstorm warning for all of Wales - Wales Online
WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UKThe Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for thunderstorms covering all of WalesRain for some!
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The weather in Wales is nothing if not extremely variable. Here is a headline from 7 years ago…..
It has now been raining for 82 days straight in this Welsh village - Wales Online
WWW.WALESONLINE.CO.UKThe Pembrokeshire village has been wet since October 26, the longest spell of consecutive rain for 92 years———————————————————————-
……and here is one from last year:
Drought officially declared across the whole of Wales
NATION.CYMRUA drought has been officially declared across the whole of Wales despite recent rainfall, Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has announced. It is the first nation-wide...———————————————————————-
Now we are approaching the 30th day in a row without rain here in south west Wales and I believe it’s been the same everywhere in Wales in recent weeks. Are there any records to show the longest unbroken dry spell anywhere in Wales?
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Wow! What a glorious first day of summer, to follow the mainly sunny and warm second half of May. Not really any sign of much change for the next 7 - 10 days but I hope the reservoirs were completely full before this spell because we’re going to need all the water we can get this summer….
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On 01/05/2023 at 08:57, Sky Full said:
I looked at the long term outlook as predicted by the CFSv2 and I’m sorry to say there’s not much to get optimistic about even there, until we get this chart appearing on the 31st May….
Don’t get too excited - the chance of this occurring exactly as predicted are well below 0.1% but at least it’s a possibility!
The above CFS chart was posted on the 1st May with little hope of it verifying, but what do you know? Here’s the ECM for today…..
Thats not too far off what was predicted 28 days ago by the CFS. Not perfect, but good enough for a long term forecast. Lucky chance? Possibly, even probably, but you cant completely rule out the CFS.
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It’s no contest. Wales is definitely the best place in the world when the weather is like this! There’s nowhere else I’d rather be. Will we get another bank holiday weekend like this one, this year? Is Wales the new Costa deal Sol? Have I had too much sun?
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10 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:
Same here, some hawthorn trees you can't see the branches they are sooo laden with blossom. I don't think the birds will even notice that I pinched enough blossom to make 8 gallons of wine, the last lot getting the yeast added this evening so that they will start bubbling away when I wake up in the morning. Heavenly sound & sight!!
That sounds lovely! Surely you can’t drink all that on your own? You can always send me a bottle or two if you make too much….
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On 20/05/2023 at 22:23, Sky Full said:
No rain for more than a week now - what’s going on? Not complaining - just saying.
Today makes the 15th day in a row with no rain in this area as far as I know. There is no rain in the immediate forecast either. We might get some rain between the 3rd and 5th June according to the GFS but too early to say for sure. This is very nice weather, but I’m a little concerned that we might have problems this Summer if rainfall levels don’t return to normal by the end of June.
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The weather here has continued sunny, settled and warm all week with only a few cloudy interludes to worry about. A really lovely second half of May and something of a pleasant surprise given how the first half of the month unfolded. I must say that the star of the countryside at the moment is the hawthorn blossom which is as prolific and heavy on the trees as ever I can remember. They’ll be a bumper crop of berries for the birds come the Autumn.
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Cool and cloudy start here today but the cloud has mostly evaporated into a thin high cirrostratus layer which is allowing watery sunshine. The temperature has probably plateaued at 16C. Not a bad day at all and warm enough to be wearing shorts outside ( no - you really don’t want to see an image….
). More dry and sunny weather in the immediate future according to the models - perhaps lasting through the bank holiday weekend for a change!
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Beautiful day today - probably the best day of the Spring so far with warm sunshine and very light breeze. No rain for more than a week now - what’s going on? Not complaining - just saying.
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All things considered, it’s been pretty nice weather this week with a lot of sunshine and light breezes. Not overly warm but maximum temperatures hovering around 19C - thats fine for me at this time of year. About 50% cloud cover yesterday kept the temperature in check but today has started with only very light high level cloud and it’s a lovely morning. Maybe we can rescue our Spring and have good start to Summer after all!
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1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:
Correct the GFS swings more than a child's swing in the local park, if anything it will fall in line with the others as you point out its inconsistent most days but when it shows what people want to see its the best thing since sliced bread
Come on guys! This IS the Model Output discussion thread and the GFS output is a very important source of information here. Even if it’s as little as 5% correct up to +240h and 1% out to +320h then it’s got to worth taking an interest. Most people are looking for summer-like weather in the late Spring and wintery weather in the late Autumn and when it shows up in FI we’re all watching for further proof of it arriving……. The very fact that the GFS is willing to show charts out as far as 384h is nothing if not entertaining and we all know that the charts will definitely change by the time the chosen future date arrives.
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28 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Hopecasting won't happen. .....
What have we got left if we haven’t got hope?
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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
The GFS is a cracker with high pressure close by from next week pulling in warm/hot South Easterlies.
Yes - a much improving outlook between 24th May and the 1st June…
Let’s hope similar charts continue to appear over the next 10 days.
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39 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Yes the GEM is much better for the UK, dreadful if like me you’re down in Spain, really hoping it doesn’t come off lol.
You’ll be fine! You don’t want it too hot in Spain or you’ll have to stay in the pool all day
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An improving picture from the GEM 0z looking from the 15th to the 21st May…
Nothing exceptional, and still a way off, but from little acorns etc etc….? At least its on the right track for the start of summer.
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Well, the GFS 0z manages to create the perfect ‘UK Low’ from the 15th - 22nd May…..
Lovely. Still no strong signal for some proper summery weather then.
EDIT:
GEM 0z tends to disagree….!
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GFS 6z now wants to bring us a nice cold snap in mid-May - lovely….
Potentially some very unwelcome late frosts if that comes off - we’ll have to wait a few days to see if it starts to show up in other runs.
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
After weeks of a persistent easterly / north easterly flow, bringing dry and sunny weather to this area, we now have a complete change of wind direction back to the more usual south-westerly. This has brought back a string of moderate to heavy showers from the Atlantic overnight and this morning which has done wonders to water the gardens and the farmland around here. Even more rain is forecast for tomorrow but the predictions of rain for this location haven’t been very accurate recently (including repeated warnings of thunderstorms which never arrived!) and at the moment I’m finding that the best way to know what the weather is going to do is to look out of the window….