Sky Full
-
Posts
2,794 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Sky Full
-
-
Something white falling from the sky at last!!!
Oh - its just hail.
No snow here but the hail is trying to settle!
-
1
-
-
Four out of the six highest wind gusts yesterday as shown on ITV weather were in Wales!
Aberdaron. 93 mph
Capel Curig. 89 mph
Lake Vyrnwy 86 mph
Aberporth 82 mph
There were significantly stronger gusts on mountain tops, of course, but those shown above were recorded at lower altitudes. Hope everyone came out unscathed - some of the pictures this morning show flooding in our area and I hope the people affected get all the help they need. Not something you want to experience in the middle of winter.
Meanwhile, this morning has dawned bright and breezy with the sun just appearing in a sky dotted with pinkish clouds - the calm after the storm, in fact. More winds expected at the end of week though which will need watching......
-
1
-
-
We just had the most intense period of heavy rain and violent wind over the last 20 minutes so I guess that's the 'squall line' passing through.... Suddenly much quieter and a little brighter here and I'm hoping the worst is over. It certainly arrived on time - 12:00 noon was the forecast peak of the storm for this area - and with any luck the wind and rain will gradually subside now although it looks like there will be further peaks before the storm passes completely. Have had some lightweight fencing damaged but not too serious otherwise so we might have got off lightly!
-
2
-
-
No one can complain about the boring winter weather today at least! I think we just had the squall line pass through - the sky darkened rapidly followed by a period of intense sideways rain as the wind speed also picked up. 10 minutes or so later and the rain is still quite heavy but the sky is a little ligher again. The wind is still whipping down the valley - must be 40-50 mph sustained - and the trees are still swaying quite violently. Although the wind continues to be very strong and gusty I am now hopeful that the worst is over and things will very gradually calm down over the next few hours.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, snefnug said:
Ignorant me asking question here, given the radar showing clearing skies, or at least less rain, how will it be windier later.
There is a cold front out in the Irish sea moving broadly west to east and with it a line of squally winds which could bring the strongest gusts of the day. This whole feature is going trail across the UK but it will reach you before it reaches me! There may well be breaks in the cloud cover and some clearing in the skies afterwards although showers are forecast to continue for another 24 hours at least. I hope this is an accurate answer but I'm sure there are many others out there more qualified to give a clearer explanation - please feel free to correct me!
-
2
-
-
So far the most notable feature of this storm for me is it's longevity - the gales really started before 22:00 last night and have gradually ramped up since then, and we can expect to endure at least another 12 hours more. We regularly see 40-50mph gales here and so the wind is not too serious - yet - but the gusts are probably exceeding 60mph now and the 12"+ thick branches of very large mature oak trees I can see are waving around like willows. The rainfall so far has not been excessive by our standards either although I am sure the totals are mounting now. However, the worst of this storm is not forecast to pass through here until around midday and I am expecting to see some more violent gusts before it all blows over. Something is definitely loose on the roof - which I hope is just the vent pipe - but there's nothing I can do about it for now!!
-
1
-
-
So far the most notable feature of this storm for me is it's longevity - the gales really started before 22:00 last night and have gradually ramped up since then, and we can expect to endure at least another 12 hours more. We regularly see 40-50mph gales here and so the wind is not too serious - yet - but the gusts are probably exceeding 60mph now and the 12"+ thick branches of very large mature oak trees I can see are waving around like willows. The rainfall so far has not been excessive by our standards either although I am sure the totals are mounting now. However, the worst of this storm is not forecast to pass through until around midday and I am expecting to see some more violent gusts before it all blows over. Something is definitely loose on the roof - which I hope is just the vent pipe - but there's nothing I can do about it for now!!
-
1
-
-
So far the most notable feature of this storm for me is it's longevity - the gales really started before 22:00 last night and have gradually ramped up since then, and we can expect to endure at least another 12 hours more. We regularly see 40-50mph gales here and so the wind is not too serious - yet - but the gusts are probably exceeding 60mph now and the 12"+ thick branches of very large mature oak trees I can see are waving around like willows. The rainfall so far has not been excessive by our standards either although I am sure the totals are mounting now. However, the worst of this storm is not forecast to pass through until around midday and I am expecting to see some more violent gusts before it all blows over. Something is definitely loose on the roof - which I hope is just the vent pipe - but there's nothing I can do about it for now!!
-
5
-
-
Already getting wild and noisy here - rain lashing the windows and some gusts already testing the roof. Still got 14 more hours of this before it peaks tomorrow. Hope I get some sleep before then..... Have a good night, all.
-
2
-
-
3 hours ago, Penfoel said:
Eek.
Parking tractor next to generator ready for power outage. Bound to happen, given our location.
Going to milk @ 5am.
Looking at our very own weather station Pwll Deri, does anyone know if that records wind speed?
Is this any good?
www.frixo.com/weather/pwll-deri-youth-hostel.asp
Forecasting maximum gusts of 67mph for tomorrow but we won't know for sure until it gets here! Not sure if we can access recorded data after the event though.....
We all ought to spare a thought for the animals living out of doors in wild weather because it can't be very pleasant for them either. Hopefully they've got enough sense to stay clear of trees.
-
1
-
-
44 minutes ago, andy989 said:
I live in snowdonia, in a village nearly 1000ft above sea level, with an open view over to the irish sea. Yes we are accustomed to very high winds, snow, heavy rain, and yes our buildings are built with this in mind vs low lying towns and cities inland. Our roofs are built to “high wind area” codes. We do often get 70-80mph gusts in winter without loosing any roof slates.
However, if lowland areas are forecast 70mph+ then I reckon we at elevated positions are in for a loud night indeed. BBC doesnt have my vilage bellow 70mph+ into 85mph for 24 hours. 24 hours is a very long time to be above 70mph. I suspect we will have 90mph+ gusts during peak. I will keep you posted.
I suspect you are right to expect gusts over 85mph. Snowdonia often records some of the highest wind gusts in these conditions. At only 450ft asl in the Preselis we don't usually get such violent winds here but we are much more exposed than the valley bottoms. I assume the predicted maximum gusts for the area are given at sea level so it would be no surprise if we experience winds 5-10mph above the forecast allowing for altitude and our exposed location. I have no doubt that it will sound like the roof is coming off tomorrow and that will be bad enough! Good luck!
-
1
-
-
The worst effects of Storm Ciara will pass across Wales between 10:00 and 14:00 tomorrow. AROME has maximum gusts between 65mph and 75mph peaking in:
Anglesey at 10:00
Cardigan Bay at 12:00
South Wales at 14:00
Stronger gusts can be expected with elevation or in very exposed locations. I would not be surprised if somewhere in Wales manages to record a gust over 90mph tomorrow. In most places it will remain generally very windy all day and overnight into Monday morning.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, snefnug said:
Re amber warnings etc. Is it to do with population density? I only ask because when we had the March 2013 snow dump, our local farmers on Wale shropshire marches lost many lambs and sheep due to the intensity and depth of snow. We were on a yellow warning. When Met Office contacted they said it was human population density that raised warning rate. That went down well not...
My goodness! That would be a truly bonkers way to determine the need for warnings to be issued. Taken to the extreme it would mean that their policy would be not to issue any warning at all in the least populated areas due to the absence of people! But what about visitors to the area, inlcuding tourists from London? Don't they count? The problem with this policy would be that the areas most prone to severe weather which require warnings to be issued to the public are frequently the least populated areas too. I am as puzzled as some others on here that the south coast is deserving of an amber warning when the west coast including sizeable towns like Aberystwyth only get a yellow? Does the MetO think the people in Aberystwyth are more resilient or something? Or maybe the west coast is not going to experience such high wind speeds? Seems unlikely though, looking at the models......
-
1
-
-
55 minutes ago, MP-R said:
I think the Earth would have to start rotating in the opposite direction for that to happen this year!
Great idea! Where's Superman when you really need him? In the meantime, I'm wondering if there will be any wind speed records broken on Sunday? As usual, the models vary in their predictions but the peak of the storm seems to be timed for Sunday midday..... Maximum wind gusts:
ECM
GFS
ICON
60-70 mph gusts quite widely even inland and I wouldn't want to be on a ferry in the channel over the weekend.
-
1
-
-
I've been trying to look up (unsuccessfully) the sea level wind speed record for Wales - the Internet doesn't seem to be interested in Welsh weather records.... Apart from the records held by the obvious places like Capel Curig the only references seem to be the 109mph gust recorded at Aberporth in 2013. Not sure if this is a record as such - does anyone know? In the meantime, I discovered that Strumble Head boasts the most powerful lighthouse in the UK so at least you'll be easy to find after the storm!
-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, wimblettben said:
Problem is I have seen this exact model before and it always seems to overdo the wind speeds in any given storm.
I still think this will be a bit stronger then previous storms though as I have heard people mention that an amber warning could be released and you need at least 60 or 70mph gusts for that rather then the more common 40-50mph.
I quite like a bit of wild weather but not when it becomes damaging or even dangerous... I am therefore hoping for a downgrade from those earlier predictions because we have had enough trees down in this area this winter. It will be wild enough on Sunday for me as things stand and a little less stormy would be even better! It's also interesting that this morning the GFS was going for a high pressure build up from the end of next week after the storm passes, but now it seems to be preferring further low pressure systems to bring yet more wind and rain.... The longer range charts change from day to day and sometimes from one extreme to the other!
-
1
-
-
I am definitely NOT looking forward to Sunday based on these wind gust charts from the GFS and ICON:
Gusts in excess of 90mph in the most exposed locations and 75mph widely even inland would definitely be damaging. If you've got anything loose or insecure now would be a good time to think about fixing it. Don't park under any large trees either. There's still time for this to downgrade - which is probable (one or two other models show lower wind speeds at this time). But also time for it to upgrade - which is possible. Anyway, one to keep an eye on especially for those on the exposed west coast - Strumble Head for example?
-
A beautiful sunrise this morning holds a promise for a nice day ahead - maybe a couple of nice days this week. But is this the calm before the storm? The outlook for the weekend and beyond is for high winds and heavy rain to return to the west again so make the most of the settled weather this week. At least we are in the tail end of winter now and Spring is just around the corner. Can't wait!
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the final third of this winter judging by the current output and many of the recent posts reflect this. So, in order to cheer a few people up (whilst bracing myself for a backlash from the purists), I am posting two sequences from the CFS covering the last week of February into the first week of March......
500s 850s
This sequence, if it happened, would certainly bring long awaited wintry conditions to every part of the country at last. I don't for one minute think these charts are going to verify, but the reason for posting them is to illustrate that, starting from the conditions prevailing today, it is still perfectly possible for the UK to experience another very cold easterly in late winter/early spring. It's happened before. The CFS is a model, like any other, and although the accuracy at this range is laughable the CFS does not generally display extremes of any kind because it is a Climate model, not a Weather model. So, there may yet be a nip in the tail of this winter - nothing's over till it's over.....
-
12
-
As I look outside at yet another grey, dull, overcast, wet and windy morning I keep telling myself we are one more day closer to Spring....... Everywhere outside is soaking wet, the roads are running with water in places and the trees are constantly dripping - but it will soon be March. And then the rain will stop, the sun will come out and we will begin to enjoy a record breaking warm and dry Spring and Summer to make up for this dismal winter.....
And then he woke up.
-
Looking out at an utterly bleak, grey, wet and blustery day with no end in sight, the models do nothing to cheer me up. Here are the (GFS 0.25) potential maximum wind gusts and accumulated rainfall totals over the next five days....
.
So, wet and stormy at times is the story for next week - everywhere to see rain and some gales although the north and west always more in the firing line. With these conditions appearing to be the trend for winter 2020, I personally can't wait for Spring to show its face.
-
1
-
-
A grey and drizzly day yesterday with only fleeting glimpses of blue sky. Today it has been raining pretty heavily now since first light with a strong gusty wind. No sign of sunshine yet but the radar suggests it might brighten up this afternoon. Its not been a very cheerful season weather-wise and the only cause for celebration now are the daffodil bulbs which have already put their noses up above ground! Spring cant be that far away now then, and if there's no snow at all this winter for my area at least the spring might come early! I can't wait for the snowdrops and early daffs to brighten the hedgerows but in the meantime we will have to suffer on with this wet, grey windy weather for a few more weeks.
-
1
-
-
It's another 100% overcast day today with a chilly, blustery wind too. But it is not raining! We might have a few dry days to end the year and that will be very welcome. December has been memorably cloudy and wet, generally milder than we would like, with precious little sun. Maybe January can deliver some cold frosty days with even some snow but this doesn't look likely within the next couple of weeks.... In the meantime I hope everyone had a very happy and restful Christmas with some time off to recharge before 2020 brings in the new decade!
-
Two different views on the weather up to Boxing Day:
26/12: Accumulated rainfall to midnight Max wind gusts at 9:00pm
ECM.
GFS.
.
GFS seems to take the Boxing Day low pressure on a more southerly track bringing less rain and lower wind speeds for Wales. That's quite a difference in such a short time frame so it will be worth watching to see which model is nearer the mark.....
-
1
-
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Not been to Newport over the last couple of days but I guess they're just getting heavy wintry showers today like us. I would be very surprised if the pitch was unplayable - there hasn't been too much rain today. Hope you get a game in.