Sky Full
-
Posts
2,792 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Sky Full
-
-
As mentioned by others already, rainfall totals are likely to be below average over the next 7-10 days as indicated by these 10 day accumulated rainfall charts from the ECM, GFS, GEM and UKMO (6 days total):
Some locations in the south and East Anglia might go the full 10 days without rain if the GFS is correct.
-
4
-
-
It's a damp and drizzly start to the day here with grey overcast skies, BUT the models are showing some lovely weather for Wales over the next few days. It could be unusually dry, too. Here are the expected total rainfall charts for the next 10 days from the GFS and GEM:
Thats 10 days total, and it means some parts could go almost without any rain for this period. In fairness, other models are showing higher totals, but it looks very likely that we will all enjoy a spell of sunny, relatively dry and warm weather over the next few days.
-
The major models are all promising some lovely late summer conditions coming our way in around a weeks time:
500s: 850s:
ECM
GFS
GEM
....but saving the best till last, in only 6 days time, the UKMO is boasting the following charts:
Cor!! Could be looking at July there. No records likely to be broken, though.....
And there really isn't any reason to worry that a few warm days in September will mean a lack of snow in January. If you don't believe me, read the Sun.....
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9887058/uk-weather-forecast-coldest-winter-years/
(courtesy of dbaloo)
-
6
-
-
On 8 September 2019 at 14:18, dbaloo said:
'nuff said....
-
1
-
-
For those interested in the accuracy of the operational models, it is sometimes worth comparing the predictions for a single date and time separated by a week of evolution. The track and influence of Dorian was perhaps a more complicated issue than most for the models to resolve but they didn't all perform badly.....
Predictions for 02:00 12/09 as shown on the....
03/09/19..... today....
ECM
GEM
GFS
The models today are all in pretty close agreement as to the conditions expected in 72 hours, but a week ago there were considerable differences. For my money the ECM has performed well, getting all the major features in the right general area meaning that the weather conditions we can actually expect were being predicted correctly by the ECM 9 days ahead. The GFS, on the other hand, was quite wide of the mark showing the remnants of Dorian tracking into the North Sea, forecasting much more unsettled conditions than we can now expect. This single example doesn't prove much except that even with the aid of these very powerful computer models the weather remains pretty unpredictable much beyond 120 hours ahead. Sometimes quite significant changes can occur in the patterns within as little as 96 hours so trying to predict how and when major weather events will develop and evolve still involves a lot of guesswork. No doubt we will see plenty of this in the coming season as we all try to detect the first major snowfall of Winter.....but if it was too easy, many of us wouldn't even be here....
-
4
-
-
Looking ahead to around +210/216 hrs (11/12 September), the GFS shows a much diluted ex-hurricane Dorian scoring pretty much a direct hit over the UK, followed hot on her heels by her younger sister:
GFS +210 GFS +216
ECM and GEM on the other hand currently believe that the Azores high will strengthen towards the UK keeping ex-Dorian away to the north west.....
ECM +216. GEM +216
They can't all be right but the actual evolution of Dorian's interaction with the Jetstream and its route across the North Atlantic will probably determine our weather for most of mid-September. Many of us will be watching these developments with interest I am sure.
-
4
-
-
Today dawned bright and sunny, light winds and cloudless skies. As the day progressed we had a few light cumulus clouds appearing and the breeze picked up but the sun was the winner overall. A little cool in the shade but in the sun it was a lovely day for
the1st of Octoberthe 1st of September! I wouldn't complain if we had another two weeks of these conditions but Dorian might have something to say about that by next weekend..... -
Today has been completely overcast, with a strong south westerly wind and feeling cooler. Still, I suppose it is the 1st October on Sunday so not unseasonal.
Wait. Did you say Sunday is only the 1st September? What......We're still in AUGUST????
-
1
-
-
Damp, 100% overcast but not actually raining. Cloud base at approx. 175m asl. Not as cool as last couple of mornings. Very light breeze. Clouds forecast to break around midday. We shall see....
-
On 11/08/2019 at 22:02, 4wd said:
Security camera footage has emerged from Arkengarthdale end of July
Just watched this for the first time - absolutely dreadful conditions and its obvious that much more extensive damage is occurring somewhere out of the picture. Not a scene you want to witness at any time but certainly not in August. I hope they managed to salvage some of the bales and that their livestock were safe.
-
Another damp, overcast start this morning although the wind is light and it's a little warmer than the last couple of mornings. No sign of the skies clearing yet but I'm hoping to see the sun before midday if the weather forecast is accurate. If we can only clear away the low cloud before the weekend then we could have a couple of very pleasant days ahead. After that, it's uncertain whether next week will return to cloudy and wet, or sunny and dry!
-
Looking beyond the bank holiday towards the end of the month, the GEM indicates that high pressure could win out and deliver a fine end to August and a promising start to September. Unfortunately the GFS has a different view, building a much deeper low pressure to the north and keeping any high pressure bottled up in the Atlantic:
+90hrs (26/08) - +192hrs (31/08):
GEM: GFS:
Which one is right? Or are they both wrong? Not too long before we find out but it would be good to have a late summer spell of warm and dry weather after a damp, windy and cool August (only in the west, obviously....)
-
4
-
-
Cool but mostly dry and partly sunny yesterday. Cool but wet and 100% overcast this morning. Very Autumnal. We have some friends from London visiting next week and I would love them to enjoy warm and dry weather for their trip to Wales but I am worried that the late summer heatwave predicted to occur in the south east might not reach this far west.....
I must say it would be good to have another spell of warm and dry weather before the Autumn sets in properly.
What we can guarantee is some of the most beautiful scenery anywhere in the UK and a break from the muggy, overheated capital....
-
The models seem to be having trouble deciding what our weather will be like for the coming bank holiday week, but for my money the GEM has the best solution:
The building high pressure manages to keep the troughs at bay - at least for a few days - bringing settled conditions for almost everyone. This would be a good way to bring August to a close and usher in Autumn!
-
6
-
-
On 1 August 2019 at 19:08, Sky Full said:
...... I can't help feeling we will be made to pay heavily for all this lovely weather - and maybe not too long to wait either.....
....and the payback has duly arrived. We now have a spell of very wet and stormy conditions, not that unusual - for October or even November maybe. A pretty violent day for the month August though, with trees in full leaf and with the strongest gusts forecast for after midday in this area I am a little concerned for some of the trees around here. If this is anything to do with the increasing effects of 'climate change' then it doesn't bode well for the winter when the atmosphere is likely to be even more volatile. There are some early signs that we may get a repeat of this next weekend as well so I'll be checking everything that could come loose and putting away the garden chairs.....
On 4 August 2019 at 21:45, snefnug said:Sun goes behind hill at back by evening and house is cool because we keep the blinds down am. But all excuses really, , we love a fire when sun goes down...
Likewise - only joking really. You can't have too many log fires!
Two frogs in our new pond.
Would love to see them! Haven't seen a single frog in my pond since I filled it and planted it in April. Maybe I shouldn't have put in those fish....
Happy Lammas!
..And to you!
-
Log fires! Goodness, it must get cold up there in those hills! It's been a (another) beautiful day here - sunny and warm - just about the perfect weather for me (during the summer, at least!). Had to go down to the vets in St Clears earlier (not for me personally, you understand) and afterwards drove down to Laugharne (one of the locations for the TV series 'Keeping Faith'). Such a lovely place and a very romantic castle ruin. Walked down to Dylan Thomas' boat house and enjoyed the view with the tide racing out. The sky was covered in fair weather clouds and there was very little breeze so in sheltered spots it was really pretty hot at times. I can't help feeling we will be made to pay heavily for all this lovely weather - and maybe not too long to wait either.....
-
I know we get plenty of c**p weather here in the west, rain and strong winds etc, but at this moment there is nowhere else I'd rather be. It's been a lovely summers day, sunny, light breeze and 20-21c - pretty perfect really. I am sitting watching three woodpeckers move from one nut feeder to the next while the sparrows and nuthatches await their turn. The bees have returned again and we have had plenty of butterflies in the garden. Earlier, a large green dragonfly visited the pond and was laying eggs for about 20 minutes. No rain here for a change, although its forecast to return by Tuesday. Not to worry, as I think think this summer has delivered some really good weather to our region already and we don't want to be greedy!
-
1
-
-
24 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:
Plenty of bumblebees and hoverflies but not many honey bees. Nowhere near the numbers of butterflies sat in the garden for an hour this afternoon and counted 4 (wife is the butterfly person and keeps records of what they are) and this is a garden of plants and flowers that if they do not attract insects they have no place. We also got 3 water features from a pond to a tin bath to half a barrel (fish only in the pond rest for insects).
I like the sound of your water features! You got to have em for insects etc. I built a pond in March and filled it in April and then we've been planting it as fast as we can. I wanted wildlife but the boss wanted a few fish so we put in six small ones. We've had great fun watching them but the best thing has been the dragonflies - at least four different types and at least two have laid eggs. On the downside the sunny weather has brought the blanket weed but we've managed to keep it under control without chemicals. It's been a real hot day here today (yesterday was cloudy, drizzly and windy!) and a few butterflies have been around but nothing like last year. We've got a huge buddliea and I've hardly seen anything on it this year. Last year it was covered in butterflies so perhaps it's just a problem this year only?
-
2
-
-
We've had some rain here over the last few days but nothing significant and not enough to change the well-below-average totals for this area to date this summer. Looks like some further rain is due on Friday so this will help the growers and gardeners but next week there are indications of another spell of warm or even hot weather. This will probably not affect western-most areas as much so we won't suffer in 30c+ temperatures here but, even so, 2019 is beginning to look like delivering quite a reasonable summer even if June was disappointing overall. Still worried about the lack of bees though.....
-
1
-
-
Although I am having difficulty believing it, this is the 13th day in a row without rain here. It looks like we could get a shower before the end of the week but even so, that's been a lovely spell of dry weather which is a rare treat. Grass growing conditions have been very good this year due to the warm weather early in the year followed by the wet spring and the surrounding meadows have been alive with activity during the sunny weather as the silage is cut and baled before it rains again! However, I am concerned that there appears to be an absence of bees for some reason. Not sure what's happened but the usually busy insects are conspicuously missing here - even the buddleia is almost untouched. We have the odd one here and there but the numbers are significantly down. A local bee keeper feels that the poor weather in June has confused the poor things but hopefully they will get back to normal behaviour again soon!
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
A good agreement between the UKMO 500s and the GFS Jet stream charts for the end of the week, showing high pressure developing for the weekend bringing settled weather for all:
UKMO. GFS
Friday:
Saturday:
.
Sunday:.
Thats not just any old High Pressure - that's a UK High Pressure!
-
11
-
We have enjoyed this very pleasant summery spell over the last week or so, even if it has been non-record breaking, but it hasn't redeemed the season yet, as far as I am concerned. We need a three to four week spell of high summer weather to make 2019 memorable and there's not much sign of this happening in the models this morning. The GFS 0Z shows a 7-8 period after +192 influenced mostly by low pressure, unsettled with a westerly/north westerly airflow and average temperatures at best.
Still plenty of time for this to be revised, of course - it's a long way off in modelling terms!
-
6
-
-
22 minutes ago, Paul said:
I'm going to split the discussion around siting of stations etc out into its own discussion (as requested a few days back )
However, having just read through the full discussion of this issue can I say how interesting and informative it was for me, as a purely amateur weather fan. It never ceases to amaze me how many other subjects and sciences are involved with meteorology and how much you can learn by reading the output of specialists and non-specialists alike. Thanks to all who posted on the subject - and it's also nice to see that no tempers were lost in the discussion!
-
1
-
-
This weather is highly welcomed after the dross of early June.....spent the afternoon at Bosherston Lily ponds and Broad Haven beach - what a beautiful country we live in! It's a lovely sunny evening now and I can't believe there is NO RAIN in the forecast for the next seven days!. Bring on the rest of July and let's hope the sunny weather can continue for another eight weeks!
Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
...and in 10 days time ECM is predicting these conditions:
500s. 850s
...hello, Indian Summer!