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10 hours ago, Frosty. said:
Looking towards the spring equinox the Gfs 00z operational becomes very spring-like with high pressure and a southerly breeze with temperatures into the mid teens celsius range..perhaps upper teens c in places!
NOW you've got my attention! I'll definitely hold you to that promise, Frosty. Much as I love a cold and snowy Winter, the time for deep snowfall and prolonged overnight frosts is over for this season, as far as I am concerned. There are Spring flowers in the garden and by the roadsides, and the birds are starting to nest. The last thing we need now is an Arctic blast to put everything back another month. Luckily, the GFS is beginning to tease us with a suggestion that high pressure will be back in charge towards the end of the month bringing calmer more Spring-like conditions to most parts of the U.K. It's a pity the models are not more believable at this distance but I'm keeping my fingers crossed that these conditions are still being shown in a couple of days!
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On 26 February 2019 at 21:56, North-Easterly Blast said:
At the start of this winter when we saw what was the second warmest December CET in the last 30 years, I did some research on similarly mild Decembers to 2018, and what the rest of each winter was like. Given that Dec 2018 had a CET of 6.9, and the fact that there has never been a December with a CET of 7.0 or 7.1, I looked at all Decembers that had a CET between 6.6 (the low end) and 7.2 (the high end), which would fit 2018 just in the middle of this range of Decembers with a similar CET to 2018, and looked at what the CETs were for the following January and February. Here are my results: (the December CET is the first value, January the second, and February the third value)
1953-54: 6.9 2.9 2.6
1918-19: 6.9 2.9 1.9
1833-34: 6.9 7.1 5.6
1827-28: 6.9 5.1 5.2
1954-55: 6.8 2.6 1.2
1924-25: 6.8 5.3 5.2
1806-07: 6.8 2.8 3.7
1942-43: 6.7 4.9 6.1
1912-13: 6.7 4.5 4.8
1971-72: 6.6 3.9 4.3
1795-96: 6.6 7.3 4.7
1842-43: 7.2 4.0 1.9
1868-69: 7.2 5.6 7.5
1900-01: 7.2 3.5 2.3Looking at the above list of Decembers that had a similar CET to 2018 (6.9 -0.3 - +0.3), the results are very mixed in relation to the rest of the winter, with some remaining very mild (1868-69, 1795-96, 1833-34), and some that turned much colder (1953-54, 1954-55, 1918-19, 1900-01, also another one with a cold Feb after an average Jan, also some that remained rather mild in Jan and Feb though unexceptionally so (1924-25, 1827-28), and another couple that were close to or slightly above average in Jan / Feb (1912-13, 1971-72). Putting it all together, the average January CET following a Dec CET from 6.6 to 7.2 is 4.5*C, and the average February CET following a Dec CET in this range is 4.1*C.
When it comes to where the rest of the 2018-19 winter will fit into the above list after a December with a similar CET to 2018, I would say that the closest match will be 1942-43. This winter had a December just short of but similar to 2018, then a Jan a bit colder but slightly above 2019, then a mild February but not quite as mild as 2019 is likely to come out at.
I have a lot of respect for statistics generally and you can often make predictions in many fields using them, but looking at your results I would suggest that you can't use one month's CET's to predict another month, or to forecast the winter ahead, no matter how far back the records go. The results for January and February just seem completely random, which is really the story of the U.K. weather, month to month. The best use of the CET records is to track the changes in average temperature over the decades. No doubt this data is used among other things by the long range climate models to predict where overall temperatures are likely to be in the future.
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.....so, it did rain a lot over night but not really too bad considering the warning. I don't have a rain gauge so I can't tell you how much rain fell but I've seen it much worse and I think the caravans safe for now....! Unfortunately for us I think there's more of the same to come and I don't think we can expect a dry spell for a good 10 days at least.
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If anyone still needs persuading that relying on any individual operational run beyond +144hrs is a waste of time, here are a couple of comparisons from the ECM and GFS showing their thoughts from 10 days ago on today's conditions together with the actual conditions which have developed:
ECM -240hrs showing 8th March: ECM today's chart for 8th March:
GFS -222hrs showing today: GFS today's chart:
Its odd that both the ECM and the GFS showed a similar picture 10 days ago, but both got it wrong!! Other than the general return to an active Atlantic with low pressure the main influence, neither model managed to get any of the details right. There is no doubt that anything showing at +240 is almost certainly not going to verify. But you knew that, didn't you?
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Given there's a MetOffice weather warning out for rain in South Wales thought I'd have a look at the expected rainfall totals over the next 36 hours. This is how the UKMO sees it:
Only the highest ground in Snowdonia and the Brecons expected to have over 6cm of rain by Thursday midnight, other areas widely 4-5cm (2"), which although wet is not a deluge. There could be some local flooding but nothing we're not used to!
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6 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:
well just got back home, good to say van survived the winter now for the spring. left at 12 ish blowing a hooley and hammering down with rain, got soaked walking the dogs but they didn't seem to care
Back in Caerphilly dry and the trees in the wood behind me hardly moving
Glad you got back OK. We also had a lot of rain today but although it was quite noisy here for two or three hours I didn't think the storm was as bad as it could have been. No damage as far as I can see and it's all gone quiet now so somewhere else must be taking a battering instead. Hope you had a great St David's weekend despite the weather - impressed you walked the dogs in the rain!
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Storm Freya : GFS has upped the ante this morning regarding maximum wind gusts on Sunday afternoon - now showing 70mph (110kmh) gusts widely across west Wales but just off the west coast of Pembrokeshire its says 90mph (143kmh) gusts are possible:
Not a day to be out in a boat of any size in the Irish Sea.... People say the GFS overdoes these predictions so we will have to wait and see just what wind speeds are achieved and what course the storm takes but at least by Monday conditions should have eased considerably.
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On 28 February 2019 at 19:29, Loadsa2000 said:
Caravan site in St Davids opens tomorrow and I cant wait to have a weekend down my van
Best make sure it's well anchored to the ground! All the weather models are predicting gales on Sunday afternoon with gusts exceeding 60mph for west Wales and Pembrokeshire in particular. This is the Arpege - the most pessimistic of the lot - which is promising 70-80mph gusts between 10:00pm and midnight.....
Other parts of Wales can also expect high winds Sunday afternoon but the west coast is likely to see the most 'exhilerating' conditions.... Some heavy rain also expected so not a nice end to the week really.
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22 hours ago, Penfoel said:
I’d be mega grateful if anyone has any predictions / thoughts for March . It’s super dry here , and as you mentioned , bees and butterflies are emerging . Luckily the gorse is in flower , or there wouldn’t be any nectar at all on the farm.
I’m thinking of turning the cows out during the day around the 10th March , and was actually thinking winter was over and we’d been lucky !
Based on what I've seen of them, there is almost no chance of any weather model giving an accurate prediction of what the weather will be like in 10 days, because we can get wild swings in the weather in seven days or less. However, it looks like we are in for 7-10 days of westerlies bringing a series of low pressure systems our way. There is likely to be a lot of rain in our area so the ground will not be dry for long, and this should get the grass growing again. There could be some gales at times but there are no strong signals for a return of really cold weather as things stand. Of course, any of these low pressure systems could wind themselves up and draw air from the north for a day or two. This might give some people a frost and even a little snow but my personal opinion is that west Wales is going to see some average temperatures for at least a couple of weeks with windy and wet conditions at times before some warmer and more settled weather comes along towards the end of the month.
Please don't take my word for it.....
Best advice would be wait for another week before making any decisions!
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Astonishing weather today and yesterday - temperatures here slightly had the edge taken off because of the breeze but this is probably because we are fairly exposed to the wind. Even so, great weather for February but I am afraid we will be made to pay for it in March. Unfortunately there is still plenty of time left for storms and colder conditions to occur - and they probably will - which is bad news for the early flowers and bees - and even butterflies - which have been encouraged to show themselves sooner than they should have done. However, if we can get through the next two months without a severe or prolonged cold and frosty spell then the growing season will have been given a good start this year.
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Well it's been a long slow process but we do now have 100% cloud cover as predicted. It also looks likely that we will get some rain judging by the look of the clouds. We won't be seeing the sun here again until tomorrow - that's for sure. But plenty of sunny, mild weather being promised through next week for Wales before the Atlantic gets its act together and brings stronger westerly winds back, and the likelihood of rain, by next weekend.
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Outlook for the weekend according to the ECM:- Cloud cover starts to increase from the west on Saturday morning and by 10:00am has reached most parts although the far south east remains clear at this time:
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Cloudy conditions continue and light rain moves into the far west by 4:00pm:
The rain doesn't get very far and has almost disappeared by 5:00pm but still affecting Pembrokeshire, Anglesey and the Llyn Peninsula:
but by 12:00noon Sunday everywhere should be enjoying some sunshine again:
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What a contrast in conditions over just twelve hours today! A dull, overcast, drizzly start and quite a chilly wind blowing at 6:00am but by 6:00pm it has turned dry, clear and cloudless, the wind has dropped, and the temperature feels like April. As far as I am concerned these conditions can hang around as long as they like. Spring - BRING IT ON! I can definitely wait until November for winter to show itself again.
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A quick look at how the main models performed from their predictions 10 days ago compared with the actual situation today:
. +240Z charts on the 29/01. Today's charts....
ECM
GFS
GFS(p) .
GEM.
They all predicted a relatively deep Atlantic depression but none of them got the location right nor did they correctly predict the shape of surrounding features. I tried to pick a winner but I can't make my mind up!. Attempts to predict snow at this distance are never going to be more than 25% likely to verify, and we can only hope to get a very general idea of the overall picture from these operational runs alone.
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Something changed at around 4:30pm - the snow intensified and started settling immediately. We now have white roof, grass and roads. Coming down steadily but not really heavy, just enough to look as though it means it! Now, we need this to continue for at least four or five hours.....
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Something changed at around 4:30pm - the snow intensified and started settling immediately. We now have white roof, grass and roads. Coming down steadily but not really heavy, just enough to look as though it means it! Now, we need this to continue for at least four or five hours.....
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Oh dear. This is not looking good. The back edge of the system is approaching fast and the snow hasn't even started to settle! Everything is wet and the snow is easing off (despite all my efforts to pretend otherwise!). Unless this system starts to pivot in a serious way to bring the heavier stuff in my direction, it's all going to be over here by 5:00pm. For the south east and borders there is plenty on the way, though...
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3 minutes ago, Gee said:
Well the school closed early...just as it started to rain lightly. Starting to lose faith and think this is not going to happen with people reporting rain
Light rain should turn to snow later. The main event is not expected until probably after 4:00pm but the ICON is indicating that the snow could continue in some areas until the early hours of Friday* Someone could get up to 10 hours of snow in that case, but not likely to be me! At the moment it is still snowing steadily but still light and not settling. However, we were not expecting a blizzard, were we....
*nb. not all the weather models are not as optimistic as this....
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Just driven back from Carmarthen where it was +3c and dry, to Crymych where it is 0c. We could see the whitening top of Foel Cwmcerwyn in the distance but it was still dry this side of the hills. As I write this we now have light patchy snow falling but I can see heavier stuff in the distance. No rain ahead of it, just snow, and the wind has suddenly increased. Hope this strengthens and spreads to all of you lot in the next hour of two.
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Looking beyond today's event towards the 'end of winter' the CFS is throwing up a whole series of humdinger charts with the emphasis very much on repeated easterlies:
These are all cold or very cold charts for the UK. This is looking into the far reaches of FI its true, but the pattern keeps showing up almost every week and if even one of those charts verifies there will be some very happy people in here! The CFS is meant to look for trends I believe, and it is certainly pushing this trend today.... Will we end up with a repeat of March 2018? Too soon to know for sure but there is something in the air....
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You guys in the south east could get five or six hours of disruptive frontal snow tomorrow if the models are even close to getting this right, especially with a little bit of elevation away from the coast:
Provided we get enough here in the Preselis to leave footprints and it hangs around long enough to get some pics on Friday, I'll be happy!
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The Euro high definition models are showing copious amounts of snowfall for the Beacons tomorrow.....snapshots of forecast snow depth at 2:00 am Friday morning:
Thats 30cm showing in that first chart! Pretty sure it won't actually happen quite like that though....
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1 hour ago, Newberryone said:
Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end.
Something's got to turn up soon - there's only another two days left for people to say: 'Don't worry, it's stil only January'.....
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Looking at the way the models handled yesterdays events, here are the charts which the main models were showing on the 23rd January for the 29th January:
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM
....and here is what actually happened (GFS 0Z and 12Z from yesterday:
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For me, the UKMO is the winner in getting the most detail right, but in terms of the general shape of things I don't think any of them did too badly at +144hrs having successfully predicted the position of the main weather influences - the Azores high and the large area of low pressure to the north east. They have therefore managed to predict the direction of the air over the UK and the low pressure area moving into central Southern Europe. The main feature they all missed is the small low pressure in the bay of Biscay which brought the rain and snow to many parts and which was a late development. This reinforces my impression that for local events (i.e. events affecting the UK alone) we can't rely on the models for detail at much more than +72hrs.
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Well, it was dry today for a change, but we have had a strong, cold north westerly wind blowing making it pretty unpleasant to go outside. Looks like being a nice evening though. I'm not a fan of snow at this time of year so I hope the prayers of the snow-mad brigade are not answered. What we need now is sunshine and less rain please.... (which is almost as difficult as getting snow in my part of the world!).