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It's difficult to describe the condions here over the past hour as this little feature is crossing Pembrokeshire - heavy lashing rain and violent wind gusts throwing water at the windows like a fire hose. Not pleasant. Looks like other areas of the country will also be enjoying some stormy conditions for a while this morning....
At least it looks to be moving through quickly and perhaps all will be calmer by mid-morning. Let's hope this is the last bit of violent weather for a few days now.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
The complex area of low pressure to the west of Ireland will become more organized and deepen to 949mb slap bang over the position of the old OWS station 'India' this evening and overnight. But the fronts, and heavy rain, associated with this will quickly clear northern England and Scotland early this evening. Still quite windy but by midnight the frontal wave, currently forming away to the south west, will being heavy rain and strengthening winds to the south west which will spread north east and effect most of England and Wales by morning.
Great to see you back again and glad it was just an IT problem! I'm hoping the worst of the gales are over for SW Wales for the time being at least - it's been howling round my roof all afternoon! The next couple of days should see calmer conditions but it looks like we can all expect further rain leading up to the weekend...
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A graphic colour enhanced satellite image of the circulation in storm Diana just off the west coast of Ireland at around 9:00 am this morning:
The total accumulated rainfall for the next 72 hours now not looking as bad as first predicted a couple of days ago -
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The total rainfall expected over Wales in the next 72 hours is not looking as bad as predicted a couple of days ago according to the GFS:
Around 40mm over the Brecons, Presellis and coastal Snowdonia is not too bad over three days. It hammered down in Haverfordwest for most of the morning yesterday and the roads were running with water, so a few days with a little less rain would be a good thing.
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Wet and breezy first thing this morning - goodbye calm, cold, sunny days .... hello stormy, wet and mild!
The maximum wind gusts in Wales are likely to be felt on Wednesday between 12:00 noon and 3:00pm, as the storm centre moves north-east:
1:00pm:
2:00pm:
3:00pm:
Widespread gusts up to 60mph, coastal areas up to 70mph, but potential in exposed places of 80mph+. Strong winds in all areas both sides of this peak period.
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Everyone can expect to get wet in the next few days....except maybe the far north east of Scotland.... Accumulated rainfall totals for the next 72 hours as predicted by the WRF, Arpege and ICON:
Dartmoor and the Brecons taking a soaking there.
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33 minutes ago, snefnug said:
Where is Knocker? Is he ok?
Not seen Knocker for the past few days - hoping he will give us an update soon. His analysis is second to none.
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The Met Office have issued a yellow weather warning of high winds for both Wednesday and Thursday covering coastal areas of south, west and north Wales and also includes most of the south west, Devon and Cornwall. Maximum gusts at present look likely to be along Irish Sea coasts. Will know more by tomorrow.
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The Atlantic is back in full control of the weather by the end of the week as shown by (in order) the UKMO, ECM, GFS and GEM:
Another low pressure system lining up in the far west to follow this weeks deep Atlantic depression looks likely to continue the unsettled conditions into early December. No sign of any meaningful blocking in the foreseeable future so we may have to wait until mid-December for any sign of serious cold appearing. The situation can change within quite short time frames, of course, but these charts don't look likely to alter much in the coming days.
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Moving on to Thursday (+96h) the main models see the north and west still being battered by the imminent Atlantic system but at least it has stayed in the Atlantic so the worst conditions confined to the west coast of Ireland, probably.....
1) UKMO; 2) ECM; 3) GFS; 4) GEM....
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2)
3)
4)
The location and strength of the maximum wind gusts expected over the next 96 hours as predicted by the ICON and ARPEGE models:
The Midlands and south east England escaping the worst of the stormy conditions this week at least.
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Quite stormy conditions for some on Wednesday - especially the further west you are....wind gusts at T+72hr as predicted by the 1) WRF, 2) ARPEGE, 3) ICON, 4) GFS:
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4)
There is also quite a bit of rain associated with this system. The exact track and speed of this deep Atlantic low pressure has yet to be determined but let's hope it stays as far to the west as possible. At least it seems to zip by fairly quickly next week.
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I'm no expert but these charts at +192h next week don't look good for cold, sadly:
500s 850s
ECM
GFS
GEM
Changeable and mild at best, unsettled and even stormy at worst, and these conditions look likely to continue into early December. This is not what was previously on offer and it's disappointing to see the models reverting to type: promising something exciting then changing their minds. The hope is that they have over-reacted and the weather will find a way back to cold again soon. No need to panic - winter has a long way to go yet. It only takes a week to get dramatic weather swings in our part of the world.....
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Hmmm.... NETWEATHER snow forecast disagrees with me, though...
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I would love to see some early snow settling as much as anyone, but I can't see it happening this week tbh. With maximum 850s of 4-5 I don't see snow falling anywhere in Wales outside Snowdonia and the Brecons, let alone settling. This is what the ICON shows for the next few days - not really cold enough:
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There is plenty of hope-casting going on elsewhere on NW but the chances of an early Winter cold spell of weather affecting Wales have receded this morning. We will see some average or slightly below average temperatures over the next few days but we may to wait a little longer before we see any significant snow. We will get some, though - winter hasn't even started yet!
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I'm straining to peer into the future to try and discover what conditions we will see at the beginning of winter proper. These are the current charts for +240h which is all I have access to.......
500s. 850s
ECM
GFS
GFS Par
GEM
JMA.
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There certain similarities in places but more than enough differences to leave confidence in any one outcome quite low. The main feature which seems to be common to all is that high pressure remains in place near Greenland and as long as that holds up we have every chance of a cold start to December.
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These charts from 1st December 2010 preceded some of the most memorable winter weather seen in December in recent years:
We all know what followed in 2010. So when I saw these charts from the GFS showing a possible evolution for 01/12/2018 I couldn't help making comparisons.....
i would say they hold at least as much potential, if not even more, for a cold and wintry December this year. Very exciting prospects indeed! Now all we need is for these conditions to verify..... What are the chances, eh?
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Just been outside with Rosie (the dog...) ... Sun's broken through, patches of blue sky visible, still a lot of shower cumulus about but it seems to be thinning. Not bad now, for a mid- November day. Fairly mild but quite breezy. Funny how conditions can change so dramatically over 12 hours. Thankfully we seem to be free from damage, although plenty of water still streaming off the fields so I guess the river levels will take a while to subside. No sign of any real cold yet but plenty of time for that before Christmas, eh?
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Another evil day for Wales yesterday with some river levels in the south west getting close to the record maximums recorded in early October. Some respite overnight has seen levels recede a little but any heavy showers today in the wrong places could bring some localised flooding. The wind has dropped overnight and it's been a calmer start to the day but already we have had a heavy downpour. Currently the sky is brightening again here and I'm hoping for a couple of hours without rain if we're lucky. Looking less stormy and possibly sunnier at times next week but the weather remains changeable if still on the mild side. Have not lit the fire yet as not really cold enough yet here at least, but we've made it up ready!
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Just got back after three weeks abroad in England... Have been watching the rainfall levels while I was away but could not believe the amount of water on the rural roads around here. They seem to be almost at capacity already and yet there is another 60+mm rain forecast for parts of south west Wales over the next three days. Together with high winds today and tonight this is not good news for our location but at least next week promises to be less wild and a bit drier.... The sky is just lightening to a dull steely grey with heavy cloud cover and rain is imminent. Will have to take down the bird feeders again or they'll end up in the undergrowth later if we get the wind gusts as predicted.
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OMG. What a time to be a weather enthusiast! After some of the most eventful weather conditions to come our way in recent years showing up in just the last nine months alone, we now have the following charts on view in the pretty reliable short term - and it's not even November yet!!
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM.
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Surely this is the stuff of deep mid-winter? No, it's just 144 hours away. But the best thing is, it's brought back all the old NW Coldies to move this thread along at three pages a day and more. Fantastic reading, hours of fun, informative, educational and sometime hilarious posts galore. You just can't buy this stuff with money. Thanks to everyone out there taking the trouble to make their thoughts known to us all - and helping me to understand a little more about this wonderful, chaotic, unpredictable thing we call WEATHER!
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Goodbye Callum. You weren't invited but you came anyway. You wreaked pain and damage on the people of Wales and you stayed too long.
Good riddance.
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9 hours ago, knocker said:
More powerful than even the October 1987 'hurricane' then? That is surprising - imagine how much worse conditions would have been had Callum made landfall in Ireland or the south west of the U.K. Only by chance have we avoided extensive damage this time, but are these events going to be more commonplace and more extreme in years to come?
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The wind here just keeps coming and coming with very violent gusts every now and then. I think the valleys around the Preselli Hills somehow concentrate the wind into a funnel effect. I know the gusts can't be more than 65-70kph maximum but it seems much worse when you hear the roof complaining, the trees roaring and see mature oaks and ashes being shaken around like twigs. The rain eased off a bit earlier but seems to be trying to return. This is taking its time to 'blow through' I have to say. Those inland and in sheltered spots are lucky to have missed it.
Short range model discussion - into 2018
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Sky Full
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That little kink in the western approaches has just passed over south west Wales bringing an hour of very heavy rain and violent wind gusts - nasty conditions outside right now. Looks like it will clear here in a couple of hours moving north east across the rest of the country, losing strength but still bringing strong winds to many parts this morning.