Sky Full
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Posts posted by Sky Full
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7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least! Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!
Oops! Seems that was the 0Z..... The current run does this instead (same time frame):
Spot the difference? Jet swings south, large Atlantic trough dominates the UK. Wet and windy everywhere. And cool.
#*!!**# CFS!
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1 hour ago, Sky Full said:
........ Could we be in for an early shock this Autumn? Let's hope the Jetstream eases north over the next few days and these conditions are delayed at least until October. Please.
The much maligned CFS at least shows a possible route to warmer and more settled conditions in the third week of September - the jet is being nudged aside and the Azores high is able to exert some very welcome influence over the Uk - for a few days at least! Go for it, CFS.....I'm rooting for ya!
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After what can be properly described as a wet weekend with only brief drier interludes between the rain we might be able to enjoy a drier brighter day today. Might even get something useful done outside. On the down side, the rest of the week looks pretty poor even for mid September with cool temperatures and frequent rain. We have already had to put the heating on - only briefly (and I pretended it was just a pre-winter test....) but I don't think we will last until October before we have it on again. It was lovely to feel the warm air inside as our north facing rooms have been feeling distinctly cool lately!
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21 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
Nasty looking low at day 9 on the ECM . I know it won't happen but that would be the 1st named storm of the season . Anyone got the wind speeds for day 9 ??
Whether things will end up exactly like this or not, the GFS and GEM both show some stormy conditions in the North Atlantic not far from the UK over this period. Could we be in for an early shock this Autumn? Let's hope the Jetstream eases north over the next few days and these conditions are delayed at least until October. Please.
GFS
GEM
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This is what the main four models are forecasting for +144 (next weekend)...
500s 850s
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM.
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Despite some differences in the possible position and strength of the Atlantic troughs, there are many similarities between the models at this date - a clear temperature gradient south to north across the UK with the south east getting the best temperatures, as expected, and a strong west / south westerly flow from the Atlantic keeping the country in unsettled conditions for the weekend and probably beyond. The Jetstream does seem to weaken a little over the coming week but it's got the UK firmly in its sights. Any properly warm air is firmly bottled up in Southern Europe. There is a good word to describe these conditions. Autumnal.
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For a time in Carmarthen today it was very reminiscent of Spain in September - crystal clear blue sky with not a cloud to be seen, barely any breeze and warm sunshine. Everyone seemed very happy to be enjoying such a lovely day but were almost afraid to show it in case it all disappeared beneath cloud and rain again. However, I like the look of the charts at the moment which indicate that high pressure will build over Northern Europe and introduce an easterly airflow to the UK - that should bring Wales some more sunny, quite warm weather for a few days at least, before Autumn gets going properly..... Mind you, I don't believe anything the charts are showing, really. Do any of us....?
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An almost completely rain-free UK from dawn on bank holiday Monday until dawn on Tuesday, according to the ICON 7km:-
Seems optimistic to me but if the country is this dry for the entire day this would have to make 2018 a contender for the best set of Spring and Summer bank holidays on record, surely?
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In the last half an hour the rain has eased considerably and we now just have a few drizzly spots flying in the wind. The skies are also much lighter although still overcast - I think we might even see a bit of sun in the next hour or so. So the rain has not been as heavy or as long lasting as it could have been and hopefully we will have dry bank holiday tomorrow in west Wales.... That's good news for everyone especially the visiting tourists to the area - we want them go home with happy memories not damp ones!
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Have awoken to the conditions which were expected today - heavy overcast, grey skies with steady moderate rainfall. It's also fairly blustery. The rain is expected to get heavier before easing up, hopefully by this afternoon, but rain does have a tendency to hang around here much longer than the charts indicate..... August has certainly been the least 'summery' month of the summer with much lower sunshine levels than July, lower temperatures and more rain. That has not made it less enjoyable, though, and the lower temperatures suited me and my garden much better than the heat of mid-summer. As mentioned by others, blackberries are now to be found everywhere in the hedgerows and some of them are huge! Not sure if this is a result of the summer conditions, or whether Mother Nature is getting ready for a bitter winter..... We shall see. At least the silage meadows are now growing fast and there should be no shortage of winter feed for Welsh hill farmers after all.
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12 hours ago, knocker said:
.................
But the ridge is very transitional and out in mid Atlantic a low pressure system is getting organized and tracking east and cloud and rain from the associated fronts will effect western regions by 0600 on Sunday. The plethora of fronts ( courtesy the senior chappy at Exeter) and the band of moderate rain will then proceed across the country clearing the east coast by midnight.
Thanks for the excellent daily summaries, Knocker. Best forecasts around. I'm looking at nine hours of uninterrupted rain here on Sunday, by the look of it. Mustn't grumble, though.
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Continuous, sometimes heavy, rain has been falling here since 12.00 noon, and even before that we had a light drizzle on and off for a couple of hours. The wind has strengthened and has been gusty most of the evening. The forecast is for this to continue through the night and maybe for tomorrow morning as well. No doubt about it, the land around here has been well and truly watered! Now would be the right time for August to bring sunshine and a little warmth back to west Wales for a week or two before the Autumn brings more unsettled weather in advance of the Winter season....
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Next 72 hours accumulated rainfall chart from WRF 0.05d:
West is best if it's rainfall you are looking for but everyone gets wet at some time.
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Was pretty much a perfect summers day here earlier - mainly blue skies with a few light clouds, and about 23/24C. Now the clouds have thickened and we are only going to get a few sunny periods this afternoon. Still, it's been dry enough to cut the grass and it looks lovely! A bit brown in places, but that's to be expected as the rainfall has been well below average this summer..... even here!
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5 hours ago, knocker said:
Look away now if you are allergic to fronts, this evening's fax chart for 1200 Saturday
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After a lovely bright start to the day here, the clouds have quickly moved in and now we have light rain again. The radar indicates that this will move away - I hope so because I do need to cut the grass now. After several weeks of little or no growth its shooting up again like Spring!
Edit: the rain is getting heavier! But showery?
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Finally, after much drizzle and low cloud throughout the day, a bit of blue sky has emerged in the west and the sun is breaking through again. The hillsides are positively glowing green in the sun and look absolutely beautiful! Thank goodness for our lovely rain. Perhaps the weekend will be dry and warm as forecast - but hopefully not the tropical heat they have experienced in the south-east. They can keep that to themselves...... I'm very happy with our summer so far although it looks like we'll have more unsettled weather for a while here. There's some talk elsewhere of another warm period before August is finished but I dont think this is aimed at us....
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Dull, misty and cool this morning but at least the wind had dropped..... Heatwave.... what heatwave is that then?
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We've had a couple of pretty Autumnal days here with mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures and quite a strong S/SW wind. No showers today but not much in the way of blue skies either. When the sun does make it through the cloud cover you can certainly feel it still has strength but we need the clouds to move away before temperatures are going to get much above ordinary. The forecast has us down for light rain again tomorrow and the heat of July is already beginning to fade into memory..... . Maybe things will be more settled toward the end of the week?
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Re Tamaras detailed and educational post above - what an incredible planet we live on, and how lucky are we to live in this part of the planet where the weather and climate is so unpredictable.... Will the models ever be good enough to take all the variables into account? I will not attempt any further analysis of the models at this time but it appears that they are at least in agreement that: a) the south and south east will see some very warm to hot temperatures this weekend, and b) temperature records are likely to be broken somewhere in Iberia in the next few days.
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3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:
Three days of heavy rain and a 2 ft deep puddle at the end of my lane, so refreshing ...
Good Lord - I never knew there were 8000m hills in Cumbria! Must take some climbing....
We have also had three days of rain - heavy showers Saturday, heavy driving rain in strong winds yesterday (more like Autumn), clear overnight and then heavy rain again this morning without the wind. Pretty normal for here, really. It's brightened up nicely now, and I'm hoping for a few more settled and warm days up to the weekend. Everywhere is looking much greener already.
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:
Now don't get JH started on Exeter and their fronts.
Perhaps that's just one front, but segmented/fragmented....? Anyway, it's well beyond my level of understanding so I'd better go and consult the text books!
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
The high res. MODIS at midday and the analysis and chart. The rain has ceases here, albeit still cloudy
The satellite image appears to show more cloud in the south east than in the west, for a change..... And that fax chart looks unusually busy with the U.K. being affected by four fronts at the same time! We have certainly seen the effects here today with bands of heavy rain moving across, although fairly briskly on gusty south westerlies. Dry at the moment but the models indicate that some rain will persist in the west until maybe Monday midday.
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The following charts show the four main models predictions for the 4th August (+144hrs):
500s 850s
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM.
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All in broad agreement with a low pressure developing in the North Atlantic close to Iceland, as before, and the Azores high pushing in towards Northern Europe and the U.K. The hottest uppers remain bottled up over Iberia and at this stage only the GEM indicates that they will be drawn north in later frames. Even so, the charts above indicate a return to settled conditions for most of the U.K. for a time with plenty of warmth and sunshine. It does look to me that the blocking across Scandivia is weakening compared with earlier runs and if this verifies we could see more influence from the Atlantic by mid-August.
P.S. It has to be said, in any normal UK summer we would probably be very happy to see the above conditions occur even two or three times, but this year they seem extremely ordinary!
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Our long period without any meaningful rain is finally over.... After heavy showers yesterday, persistent driving rain has moved in overnight accompanied by strong, gusty winds from the south west. Conditions almost akin to an Autumn storm rather than normal summer rainfall. I wouldn't usually say this but 'thank goodness for the rain!' It will be good to see the grass growing again and maybe some water in the streams. I have put away the garden hose - for the time being at least....
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Model output discussion - summer rolls on
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, Ed, you are right of course, but it's also swinging wilding in the 10 - 15 day period at the moment. Mind you, so are all the others....