Sky Full
-
Posts
2,792 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Sky Full
-
-
Current model output looks like this at +144hrs (25th September):
UKMO
ECM
GFS
GEM
I've got no roof and the power's out, but at least the weather's nice!
-
1
-
-
To get some idea of the windiness expected throughout the UK expected over the next few days, this is the ARPEGE showing the maximum wind gusts at sea level predicted for the next 72 hours....
Everywhere in the UK can expect gusts in excess of 60mph but that central belt of bright pink indicates gusts up to or exceeding 90mph...
Brace yourselves...
-
2
-
-
26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
If anything the storm is even nastier on the 06z GFS and also further south.
Ouch
The first wind speed chart you posted shows sustained winds in my location up to 70mph+ - never mind the gusts. Some structural damage would be guaranteed. These then move east across central and southern England. I'm hoping this is going to downgrade substantially before the weekend.
-
Continuing windy here with worse to come according to the GFS and others. Heavy rain expected to accompany some strong winds tomorrow and Friday. There is the possibility of another storm on Sunday, which could affect the whole of the U.K. I will be glad to get this week over with - looking more settled and drier next week if the models are correct.
-
Some people are concerned that there might be a hurricane coming....don't worry, there isn't......
The winds over the central UK are only shown to be gusting up to 75mph....
-
4
-
-
7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Not as deep or threatening by the looks on the fax chart, my other slight criticism of this storm is I would prefer the isobars to be tightest on the SE flank like Oct 16th 1987, I would love to see a really potent sting jet occur slap bang over my house.
That would be great! If it's over your house, that means it's not over my house. So I'm crossing my fingers for you! I'm also hoping that the models are correct about the settled period which is predicted to follow next week, because you'll need a few days to get your roof repaired. You might want to think about hiring a generator because you probably won't have any power. We lost power for six days in October 1987 with part of the roof off and a tree resting on the car.
-
5
-
-
What a windy week this is turning out to be... This is the progression of maximum wind gusts across the country according to the ICON for Thursday and Friday (+40 - +60hrs):
I keep looking at this thinking 'That can't be right...' Would be very nasty in the North Sea for a time.
-
2
-
-
3 hours ago, knocker said:
For those growing old gracefully in eastern coastal regions and Belgium and Holland the scenario envisaged by the gfs will bring back pain fall memories of the 1953 floods which killed 1,836 people. Of course the flood defenses were greatly upgraded after the disaster but not of late in the UK. The Thames barrier for one needs upgrading. I remember it quite clearly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_flood_of_1953
Quite possibly the worst single weather event related disaster to affect Europe in living memory. Whatever the current state of Coastal defences we do at least have hugely better short-term forecasting abilities now and, crucially, significantly better communications which ensures that prior warnings should reach almost everyone in good time. This is what was sadly lacking in 1953. Here's hoping that this is one modelled event which will not verify.
-
5
-
-
With respect to the possible weekend storm both the UKMO and GEM have something along the lines of the GFS being modelled, between +120 and +144 at least:
UKMO
GEM
GFS
Only the ECM doesn't have a deep depression passing across the UK over this period:
+120
. +144
I would prefer the ECM to be right on this occasion because for me it's too early in the autumn season for violent storms - that can wait for when the leaves have fallen. But it's impossible to ignore the possibility that the other three models may have the right solution and the ECM has yet to join the dots.....
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, snefnug said:
Windy night outside and squally but not heavily so, no damage other than a fallen over plant and a smashed wineglass as ‘Bugger’ the cat next door but one was obviously feeling peckish and slunk in catflap, past sleeping cat, jumped on kitchen surface aiming for recycle caddy and knocked over wineglass, I think..... unless it was really really windy and it was Helene...? Very mild now, 17 degrees.
Yes, very windy here also and a power cut between 02:10 and 03:30 but no damage as far as I can see. Our dog slept right through the night - for a change! The rain has stopped now and wind is dropping but it was very wet for a time last night! Looks like it will be a windy week in the west before some more settled weather appears in the charts.
-
Some variance in the models in the medium term (+216) possibly due to the volatility in the Atlantic in the short term:
ECM
GFS
GEM
....but all have some sort of ridge in the vicinity of the U.K. suggesting that we could enjoy a more settled interlude towards the end of next week after a potentially quite stormy weekend to come.
-
2
-
-
Well. That was a wet day. A very wet day, in fact. A day for staying inside, which is what I did! And we now have a windy week to look forward to - perhaps not so bad tomorrow as first suggested but from the middle of the week there is more stormy weather around. We will have to wait to see how this will affect Wales but its certainly turned autumnal in a hurry.
-
Maximum winds gusts over the next 48 hours as predicted by three short term models:
WRF
ARPEGE
ICON
Plus wind gusts expected at around 2300 hrs tomorrow by the GFS 0.25:
So, maybe 100kph/65kph gusts in western coastal areas between 2200 Monday and 0500 Tuesday before the storm moves away to the north east and weakens. Not particularly severe but still may be disruptive especially to Irish Sea ferries and people living by the coast. I would very much like to see one of Knockers detailed summaries of the next 48 hours......
-
1
-
-
ARPEGE and GFS both suggest wind gusts of 60mph to 75mph affecting coastal areas around the Irish Sea:
.
These are at sea level or 10m height. At my elevation and exposed as we are, I imagine gusts could exceed 75mph. Anglesey could be the worst affected area in Wales but Ireland is even more at risk because the storm could track further west than predicted. I intend to tether a couple of small trees I have, because I have lost young trees in similar conditions before.
-
For me, the GEM has the best looking evolution from +96 to +240 - a very nice end to the month of September:
.
It will be very interesting to see if we can pull off another warm and settled spell before October - or even during October.
-
3
-
-
14 hours ago, Sky Full said:
A yellow 'strong wind' warning has been issued by the Met Office for the west on Monday and early Tuesday. Still trying to get an accurate idea of which areas will be worst affected by this storm but the following models think that the centre of the storm will track up the Irish sea, giving west Wales and eastern Ireland a battering.
....on the basis of their predictions Pembrokeshire might see gusts between 80mph and 90mph, and gusts over Anglesey could approach 100mph. I suspect the storm may track further west and the winds in Wales will be less violent but we will probably not know for sure until as late as Sunday evening. If you live near the west coast it might be advisable to think about tying down the caravan, the dustbins, the patio furniture and the dog.....
Did you spot the 'deliberate' (not) mistake? Wind speeds would be in 'kph', not 'mph' - of course! Quite a difference.....
-
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
In the past, a parallel GFS has been the same model being trialled with an upgrade of some sort. Not so this time, it's actually a trial of a new model chosen to succeed the GFS called the FV3 (still presumably fed with GFS input data) - although it will still be called GFS if/when it takes over - the GFS is dead, long live the GFS!
However, I suspect that the difference between models is a secondary uncertainty here, and the difference between the two runs is due to the actual significant uncertainty over the track of Helene, and over the intensity when and if it hits the UK.
Many thanks, Mike. Assuming that computer model upgrades are tweeks to existing software and not completely new programming, it just goes to show that a tiny adjustment in the input can result in quite significant differences to the output. I was more puzzled that these differences could occur in such a relatively short timescale, but i guess this storm really is that unpredictable.... I will just have to wait until Sunday to see whether my roof is at risk..... Not much I could do about it, anyway!
-
1
-
-
A yellow 'strong wind' warning has been issued by the Met Office for the west on Monday and early Tuesday. Still trying to get an accurate idea of which areas will be worst affected by this storm but the following models think that the centre of the storm will track up the Irish sea, giving west Wales and eastern Ireland a battering:
ICON:
GFS ARPEGE
I'm not saying that any of them are right, but on the basis of their predictions Pembrokeshire might see gusts between 80mph and 90mph, and gusts over Anglesey could approach 100mph. I suspect the storm may track further west and the winds in Wales will be less violent but we will probably not know for sure until as late as Sunday evening. If you live near the west coast it might be advisable to think about tying down the caravan, the dustbins, the patio furniture and the dog.....
-
Further to Singularity's excellent post above, the GFS 0.25 is showing this for 0200hrs 18th September:
Max Wind Gusts:
The storm is shown tracking just off the west coast of Ireland, albeit giving that coast a battering.
However, the GFS 0.25 Parallel is showing this just six hours later:
Average Wind Speeds:
Max Wind Gusts:
The latter 2 charts indicate sustained winds in my location at up to 70mph and gusts at or over 90mph. At this time of year, these conditions might be quite, if not very, disruptive. It is becoming important to know which of these two closely related models might be right, or if it's neither. Not being knowledgeable about the GFS, can anyone explain to me why the parallel model could vary so much from its older sibling?
-
3
-
-
Irrespective of whether we get a warmer period towards the end of the month, I am still waiting to see how far east the track of storm Helene will get, and what strength the winds will be. This is what is currently showing for the 18th September:
ECM
UKMO
GFS
GEM
Helene is confidently shown to be situated in the western approaches and this will be of interest to anyone contemplating a ferry trip to or from Ireland or northern France around this time. My bet is that there will be cancelled services. Anyone who lives in 'the west' is also bound to be interested in the maximum wind gusts over this period as the trees still have all their leaves and if there is a last minute change in direction further east and/or a strengthening of the overall wind speeds, disruption on land could also become a factor. I'm hoping that the storm will weaken, of course. Bring on that 'Indian Summer' instead......
-
5
-
1
-
-
After a crystal clear, starry sky last night we have a beautiful, sunny, calm start to the day - lovely misty autumnal sunrise and barely any breeze. Is this the calm before the storm...? We will know in the next few days whether we will have to brace for the first storm of the Autumn. At least we don't suffer the violent weather they are about to experience in North Carolina. That's good because I know my roof wouldn't be up to it.
-
11 hours ago, ICE COLD said:
80 to 90 mph . Here are a few snap shots of charts from weather.us .
Oh dear. I don't like the look of that at all. Goodbye, Pembrokeshire, it's been nice knowing you.....
ICON and GFS both tell a similar story for the 18th September....
Luckily, other models including UKMO do not agree with these predictions so there is a good chance things will not turn out quite like this but it certainly looks like an Atlantic storm is on the cards for some parts of the UK next week.
-
Well, precious little brightness today in the end but at least it has been dry. Almost entirely overcast all day with quite strong gusty winds but this was good weather for working outside, so no complaints. It does seem that the summer has left us exactly on time this year and Autumn is eager to flex its muscles. Many of the leaves are beginning to turn colour and it looks possible that we might be on the sharp end of the first Atlantic storm before the month is out. I guess the winter model output crew will soon be looking out for the first snow of winter!
-
1
-
-
Not an unattractive end to the GFS between +240 and +384:
Of course, this is a long way off in weather forecasting terms and it won't happen like this, will it, but it's got to be worth at least one sunglasses emoji from Frosty, surely?
-
4
-
GFS 
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
If the conditions predicted by the ICON for early Friday morning actually verify, there will be a lot of homes in Wales without power by Friday night...
Not all the models agree with the intensity of this storm but we are guaranteed some very strong winds at some point.