Sky Full
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30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
sorry I meant for k to give the squirrel some tasty morsels not to eat it!
I knew that, John. Just my attempt at Christmas cracker humour. Ho Ho!? We all know the squirrel is safe! Happy Christmas to you and thanks for your own grounded and knowledgeable posts as ever.
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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Either your eyesight needs checking or you’re looking the wrong way !
Of course, if you limit your vista to ten days then that’s fine, but it’s not the end of the modelling .......
I definitely should have gone to Specsavers.....
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Had to have a quick look in here to see whether there was any white stuff about. I saw that you've managed to fill 94 pages in nine days! That's, erm, over 10 pages a day, right? I thought we must be in for snowmaggedon but no, it's mild mush as far the eye can see. What on earth is it going to be like in here if we get a blizzard showing in the models within the 96 hour range? FABULOUS! That's what!!
Happy Christmas to everyone in here, especially the know-nothings like me who rely on the regulars for all our weather related news. Keep yer spirits up - we're bound to get some real winter weather before March and it'll all be worth waiting for when it arrives.
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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:
As ever k many thanks from me for providing a daily (usually) update that is my first call on here.
Happy Christmas k and don't forget that damn squirrel of yours for some tasty morsels.
NO, NO, NO! Don't EAT the squirrel! Just give it some nuts! Happy Christmas Knocker and thanks from me too for the very varied and always useful information you provide in 'Knocker's Thread' (as I call it). Hope to see you carrying on the good work in 2019, whether we get any white stuff or not. It's all weather to me......
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
Just looks to me like we have a mid lat high around us in a holding pattern and at some point there is a drop off of the low heights to the north so that the next amplification off the ESB raises our ridge - to our west, north or northeast is the question .....
still confused as to why people get so hung up on conditions on the 25th December ..........it’s just another day meteorologically speaking .......
Darn it. To think I've wasted 60 years hoping that next Christmas will be snowy. I'll never be able to watch that film 'White Christmas' again - after all, it's just another day....
In the meantime, this thread still has the words 'hunt for cold' in the title, so I'm not feeling guilty for posting these charts from the CFS covering 28th Dec to 2nd Jan:
It only goes to show that anything is possible even within the next ten days.
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The wind has been very noisy here now for over an hour. As I was writing this post I heard a very violent gust tear across the roof – I hope nothing fell off! Before the post was written the internet went down but we still have power – so far. At least the rain has stopped but I still don’t fancy going outside yet. There are things banging about outside but they’ll have to wait until morning before I go and investigate…. I don’t have an anemometer but someone in Milford Haven has recorded a maximum gust to date of 134kph and that’s pretty much at sea level so there must be even stronger gusts at higher elevations. BBC says 600 homes without power now in south Wales. Come on Deirdre, that's enough. You’ve had your fun, now clear off……
Internet back now so I can post again!
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The wind has been very noisy here now for over an hour. As I was writing this post I heard a very violent gust tear across the roof – I hope nothing fell off! Before the post was written the internet went down but we still have power – so far. At least the rain has stopped but I still don’t fancy going outside yet. There are things banging about outside but they’ll have to wait until morning before I go and investigate…. I don’t have an anemometer but someone in Milford Haven has recorded a maximum gust to date of 134kph and that’s pretty much at sea level so there must be even stronger gusts at higher elevations. BBC says 600 homes without power now in south Wales. Come on Deirdre, that's enough. You’ve had your fun, now clear off……
Internet back now so I can post again!
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3 hours ago, jethro said:
Morning all, filthy morning here, cold, wet and windy. Local artisan Christmas market in Shepton Mallet cancelled due to high winds toppling the town Christmas tree and stalls blowing over. Not exactly festive weather.
Utterly horrible weather for Christmas markets. Tbh when the weather's like this there's only one place to go....
....Cribbs Causeway! Get there early if you want a covered parking space!
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Eight hours of strong winds to move across the UK from 5:00pm tonight as predicted by the ICON:
I would not want to be on a boat or an oil rig in the North Sea tonight looking at the above. My thoughts go out to anyone who has to endure these conditions at sea.
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Eight hours of strong winds for Wales from 5:00pm today:
...according to the ICON.
A day for staying indoors, I think!
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Gales and rain here this morning - but not quite as stormy as I expected. Maybe we'll see higher wind speeds overnight tonight but after that I hope things will calm down a bit! Many have reported having snow in other parts of the country but sadly nothing here - we've just got cold, wet and windy rubbish!.
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What a great cold, possibly snowy four day Christmas sequence this is from the GFS Para this morning:
Yes, it's on its own, and Yes, it almost certainly will not happen, but it cheers me up just to think it's possible and I can't stop watching it!
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If you want to see snow anywhere other than mountain tops over the weekend, head North and East according to the ICON:
Unless we see some significant changes in the next few days we're unlikely to see any more until after Christmas now.
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Snow not expected to fall in Wales (Snowdonia excepted) over the weekend according to the ICON:
Sadly just rain in the forecast for this area up till Christmas....
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4 hours ago, DeepSnow said:
Well I'm back in wonderful Wales. Had a brilliant time in New York, was freezing there though. Even had a few snowflakes on the drive through Queens to the Airport yesterday!
It's quiet in here though considering the potential for colder weather being discussed, are we destined to miss the snow?
Welcome home! You haven't missed anything wintry here but in another thread there're going mad for snow next week. Don't expect it'll reach me but you might be lucky. Don't hold your breath though. It's more likely to happen nearer Christmas I'd say....
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It's a chilly, blustery and wet start this morning. Seems like we're stuck in a rut with the weather right now. It's not deterring the bluetits, great tits and sparrows though - they're very busy at the nuts and seeds this morning. It looks like the winds will fall lighter in the next few hours and hopefully we'll get a couple of hours of sunnier skies - I've really got to get on with some fence repairs today....
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Purga got there first! GFS 0Z shows a more wintry picture first thing Christmas Day:
Thats a white Christmas for many! Hope it doesn't disappear by tomorrow.....
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GFS (P) 0Z gives us a FI prediction for first thing Christmas morning:
It would be a calm, settled but possibly cloudy start, cold but dry everywhere. In the absence of any snow I would take this over a wet and windy Christmas every time. Obviously plenty of changes to come in the next few days but this outcome would not be the worst we could hope for.
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.....and here's the first decent snow depth chart of the winter:
Of course, everyone here knows it won't happen exactly like that. Will it?
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50 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Whatever the individual operational runs are showing there's a Battleground set to develop next week between the atlantic / scandi block with fronts struggling to push east into some cold air..recipe for rain to turn to sleet / wet snow!!..very good to see this so early in winter!!
Yay! Frosty's back! Now I KNOW it's definitely winter and it's gonna SNOW!
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2 hours ago, knocker said:
.......
And a nice image of the low at 1300
That's an amazing satellite image there - you could hardly have drawn a more perfect spiral showing the air circulation around the low, or a straighter line to pick out the leading edge of the front. I'll never get tired of the patterns created in nature....
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After (yet another) VERY wet night with blustery winds we have a respite this morning with a bright sunny start and light wind. There are some shower clouds visible on various horizons but so far dry here..... This could be the best day of the week because it's likely to go downhill fast from tonight through the weekend. There seems to be an endless train of Atlantic low pressure systems headed our way, some of which could turn nasty, so no let up in the run-up to Christmas as far as I can see. The run-off from the fields is pouring onto the roads around here and all this has to end up in low lying rivers in the next 24 hours. There's likely to be some local flooding reported today in South Wales so let's hope for a few rain free days next week to dry us up a bit!
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The Jetstream is expected to have the UK directly in its sights over the next few days as seen by the GFS:
This pattern continues pretty much uninterrupted through to the end of the GFS run at +384h. This would not allow any periods of settled weather to get established and may bring more in the way of windy and wet conditions for most of us until well into December.
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2 hours ago, Sir Clive said:
I must admit, I do enjoy 'violent' weather, although we call it "exciting" in our house in order not to panic the children!
Almost 40mm here since breakfast yesterday, the bulk of which arrived in the early hours today. The wind has eased considerably in the last half hour or so.
I also enjoy violent and extreme weather when I feel relatively detached from it but I do get worried when its testing the doors, windows and even the roof of the house! The wind has oddly dropped considerably since early morning although it is still drizzling persistently - but this is fairly normal for the time of year in this area TBH! I don't think this is the only stormy weather Wales will experience before the end of the year, and maybe we'll be made to pay for the extended period of calm, dry and relatively sunny conditions we recently enjoyed.
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
If they're the names of the NW seven dwarves then it's bound to be Snow White everywhere! Here's hoping!
At least we can expect some settled weather over the next few days into the New Year according to current output. That's got to be better than a raging Atlantic with storms, gales and pouring rain.