Sky Full
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There was a lull in the rain here for a couple of hours after dawn but it's back now in earnest. The sky is darkening as I write so I guess there's a heavier burst not far off. On the plus side, the wind so far is not as bad as last night and although gusty it's not strong enough to be damaging, here at least. We'll cope with the rain in this area because there's plenty of culverts and streams to take the water away but it's not ideal if you need to be driving this morning.
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I have been woken by the noise of heavy rain being driven horizontally at the window by strong gusty winds. I'm wondering if I will get any more sleep tonight. The rainfall amount is expected to increase over the next three hours as are the wind gusts. The roads around here are going to be a mess in the morning.
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The expected rainfall accumulation over the next 60 hours according to the short term models:
WRF
ARPEGE
ICON
GFS
Wales and the Lake District to cop the heaviest rainfall totals. Particularly in the Brecon Beacons where the GFS expects 130mm+ in two days. For many areas in Wales this will amount to a months rain in two days so some local flooding is likely particularly in low lying areas, hence the yellow and amber weather warnings issued. It's a little annoying because the track of storm Callum is way off in the Atlantic to the north west of Northern Ireland but all this associated windy wet weather is tracking across Cardigan Bay in its wake.....
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50mm+ rain likely on Friday for my location..... 60mm+ rain on Saturday and accompanied by winds with gusts perhaps exceeding 60mph at times. Oh joy. Bring on Monday, then. Let's get this weekend over asap.
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21 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Wonderful Indian summer's day. We had the air frost Sunday dawn
Fantastic clip! I loved it. The contrails look like skyrockets! Only trouble is, you're now going to have to post one of these EVERY DAY please.....
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My goodness. What a wonderful summers day this is. Wall to wall sunshine and blue skies. 18C. Light(ish) breeze. What a pity we can't have a week of this before the cold, cloudy, wet and windy weather returns. However, looks like the weekend will bring more typical mid-Autumn conditions with plenty of wind and rainfall. By Sunday, today will already be a fading memory..... In the meantime I'm going to get outside for the rest of the day.....
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2 hours ago, knocker said:
This evening's ecm take on the Friday storm and secondary low and very active front could well produce some very inclement weather on Saturday/
Those charts are quite graphic illustrations of the stormy conditions in parts of the Atlantic. The first chart reminds me of a yo-yo being rewound on its string straight back to the hand holding it. Where's the hand? Right over the UK! I suspect the intensity of that feature will have subsided quite a bit before (if?) it makes landfall in our neck of the woods though.
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It's a much better day here now, though, if a little chilly in the enthusiastic breeze. Lots of blue sky with light cumulus clouds. Speaking of Autumn colours....
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Benign, settled and, dare I say it, seasonally above average temperatures on offer from the models for around the 13th October according to these charts:
ECM +192
The continental air is relatively warm and dry with almost all of the European continent rain-free:
GFS
GEM agrees:
Oh dear. JMA begs to differ:
JMA:
Interesting. I wonder who will get the closest to verifying......
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Yes, it's pretty gloomy all right. Heavy overcast all day today with light rain at times, and definitely colder. The good thing though - it's pretty calm with only the lightest breeze. Over the weekend more rain is expected but maybe a bit drier next week. As you say, the colours seem to be reaching their best - our blueberry bushes are shining out in various shades of red, orange and russet and we have a young cherry tree which has managed to turn almost completely gold. Love the colours at this time of year and will be pleased if we can avoid stormy winds for another couple of weeks so we get to enjoy them for the longest.
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After a few days away we're back in beautiful Pembrokeshire again. Couldn't wait to get home. Today has started with a lovely still morning, pink tinged clouds as the sun rises, against an otherwise clear sky. Hope it stays clear like this but we are promised a generally cloudy week I believe. However, it looks like we will mainly stay dry this week with light winds until the weekend.
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2018 - will it be the year that delivered in every season? Exciting Winter weather, spectacular Summer and now looking like a decent Autumn. Now, can we hope to see some snow before Christmas? The CFS is working hard on this one. Bring it on!
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(Just for fun, obviously...)
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Well, the clouds soon cleared this morning and the sun came out followed by plenty of fast moving fair weather cumulus making for a very interesting sky. We had a lovely walk through tree lined lanes drying quickly after the morning rain, enjoying the early Autumn colours and crossing a fast flowing river glittering in the sunlight and tumbling down a narrow gulley. This is what the Autumn should be like, and long may it last.
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This is what I have been waiting for: cross model agreement on a six-day (minimum) settled, dry and quite sunny spell of lovely early autumn weather. Out to +144 the prediction is unanimous:
UKMO:
ECM:
GFS:
GEM:
ECM and UKMO probably showing the best outcome for the whole country but GFS and GEM both promise settled conditions for most.
Even out at +192 the longer term outlook seems similar:
ECM:
GFS:
GEM:
If the ridge is allowed to drift eastwards a little we could see some quite warm temperatures as well but as things stand it's a cool but fairly quiet picture. Excellent outlook for early October, in my opinion - it will allow the trees to colour up and lose their leaves naturally before the more active late autumn weather arrives. There's plenty of work to do outside yet which requires dry weather. And there's plenty of time yet for rain, cold and, dare I say it, extreme weather to show its hand - Christmas is still three months away yet!
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100% heavy overcast this morning accompanied by steady moderate rain but almost no breeze at all! The strong winds predicted earlier in the week for today have disappeared from the charts for this area, thank goodness. Had enough of damaging gusts this week. Hoping that the skies will clear this afternoon to introduce the cooler, sunnier settled weather which we are predicted to enjoy next week. As far as I am concerned a sunny settled October would be perfect, allowing the trees to lose their leaves naturally and avoid going into the winter with saturated ground. November is the time for cold weather to appear and if we have to have them, winter storms to have their day.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
Actually it's been a bit breezy this morning with one very violent shower and some impressive Cbs around. Quite a dramatic geostationary image at 0900 UTC
That captures the energy in the circulation very clearly. We also have showers and a stiff gusty breeze this morning but the afternoon is meant to be dry and sunnier. Plenty of rain expected over the weekend though, especially in central Wales and the Midlands it appears.
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Looks a bit breezy in your neck of the woods Sunday afternoon, Knocker, according to the ICON 0Z....
The short term models still disagree on the exact track and intensity of this depression. Will it be named Callum later today?
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Not sorry to see the back of Bronagh..... Lovely start to the day here - bright sunshine and light winds. The return of the sun has made me realise that the windows need cleaning! Now, are we going to get any bother from storm Callum....
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1 hour ago, lindy2222 said:
Its been blowing a Hoolie up here all day......lashing rain gusty wind...................................
...lashing - yep, that's exactly the word I was looking for earlier! In fairness, the rain has eased up now, for the time being, but still have gusty winds shaking the trees. No power cut though, so not all bad. I'm really looking forward to next week now!
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This is going from bad to worse to terrible..... Torrential rain blown sideways in strong south-westerly gales hammering on the windows and violently shaking the trees. No whole trees down as far as I know but at least one large branch has fallen into the road. Charts indicate that 5:00pm will be the height of the wind speeds here but not sure how long the rain can keep this intensity up for. It's like sitting in a car-wash during the rinse cycle (without the rotating brushes, obviously!). Not going to step outside for the rest of the day.
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Not in your area yet, but here it is varying between absolutely torrential downpours interspersed with periods of just heavy rain, and all driven sideways by gradually strengthening south-westerly gales. It looks to be continuing to move north-east through mid-Wales and then into the Midlands, so I hope we've taken the sting out of it before it reaches you.
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The light steady rain from first thing this morning has gradually ratcheted up and up and we now have a significant, heavy and continuous downpour which is being blown from the south-west on an increasingly blustery wind. This will certainly refill any rivers which are still below normal flows. I believe these conditions are set to continue for a few hours yet. Just had a flicker on the lights, so maybe a power outage somewhere as well. However, I would still take this over the storm which was predicted and trust that we will not now see those damaging winds which were forecast for overnight - at least not this side of October anyway.
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As already stated by others, the GFS has considerably backed away from damaging winds over the next four days:
Maximum gusts now limited to 50mph in most places; 70mph now only likely in the most exposed locations well above sea level. After this sequence conditions settle down as high pressure begins to influence our weather next week.
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It appears that the models are confident that a storm is going to develop but that this will occur either on Friday or on Sunday, not both. After the weekend the following week looks much more benign and settled:
+144h +192h
ECM
GFS
GEM
UKMO
Will this be sustained, or is it just a brief respite from an increasingly stormy Autumn? The divergence at +192 indicates that the models are not yet certain about the end of next week, as you would expect at this distance.
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Storm Callum - Atlantic Storm 3
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Was woken at 3:00am by rain hitting the window like a fire hose, driven by very strong gusty wind whistling around the eaves. Couldn't get much sleep after that but we had a lull in the rain after dawn for a couple of hours. Raining steadily again now but the wind, whilst still gusty, is not as wild as last night. The short term models indicate that wind spreeds will pick up and rainfall will intensify again between 12:00 and 13:00 so this might be the peak period for this location. I am hoping for a slow but steady decline in the wind and rain during the rest of today and tomorrow and a relatively calm Sunday. Curious how the storm centre has tracked out in the Atlantic off the west coast of Ireland and will be in the vicinity of Iceland before long but the worst conditions (apart from out in the Atlantic) are over Wales, and perhaps Cumbria, a couple of hundred miles away.....