Sky Full
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24 minutes ago, kar999 said:
Snowing steadily around here now..
Looks lovely up there! We had some quite heavy sleet earlier which I thought might turn to snow but no! Its turned back to rain again - quite heavy and steady, but definitely rain! Ah well, there's always Thursday....
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What a contrast from yesterday: grey, 100% overcast skies bringing cold rain although the winds remain light. No sign of snow here at all but I'm hopeful we might see some on Thursday. In fairness, this is the least likely part of Wales to see snow given the proximity of the Irish Sea! Good luck to everyone else who is hoping for a meaningful dumping!
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A quick look at the differences between the models at +240hrs as we move into the last full month of the winter:
500s. 850s
ECM
GFS
GFS(p)
GEM.
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The usual diversity between them at this range is apparent but ECM, GFS and GEM all have a deepening low pressure in the North Atlantic tracking east so could this be the feature which has the greatest chance of verifying? If so, will it move south and allow heights to build over Scandinavia or will it move across the UK bringing probably unsettled, wet and windy conditions. No point looking further ahead for clues because the models will each have a different solution and in any event l am not nearly knowleable enough to form a meaningful opinion!
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3 hours ago, knocker said:
There is currently a batch of wintry showers effecting western Scotland. a few down the east coast and these parts as well, In the former area these showers will become more frequent during this evening and over night and spread further afield as they become increasingly of snow so that by morning maybe some accumulations but also very icy in the very cold ground temps. Elsewhere a widespread frost as well if not as cold.
Hi Knocker - do you have any current or very recent satellite images you could post? I find it very interesting and helpful to compare the current charts and fax charts to the photographic satellite images you share with us from time to time. Understanding how the weather develops over the next few days would be a lot easier if I could see what it looks like from above!
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With all the talk about what we can expect from tomorrow and onwards, I just want to put on record what a beautiful, sparkling winters day it's been today. A lovely sunrise followed by mostly clear blue skies with light cumulus clouds passing slowly in a light, almost undetectable breeze..... Quite noticeably mild in the sun which has been lighting up the hillsides and woodlands from a low angle bringing out the colours even though the trees have no leaves. Definite hints of spring with daffs and snowdrops pushing up everywhere. On days like these there is nowhere else in the world I want to be.
Who could guess from this what a complete change in the weather is to follow tomorrow and later this week, if the models are to be believed.....?
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13 minutes ago, IDO said:
Lots of doubt as to snow/rain so prefer to see the potential if we get lucky?
Thursday:
That must be an amazing piece of programming to separate the pattern into FIVE distinct types of precipitation! I don't even understand the differences - assuming 'verglas' is sleet (?) what are 'brouillard' and 'orage'?
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Worth keeping an eye on Friday morning according to the ECM. These charts show conditions at 6:00am:
Surface temperature: Accumulated Snow depth:
Wind speed and direction: Maximum gusts:
Quite a stiff wind along northern and western coasts bringing windchill to below freezing, possible snow lying on higher ground. Might be an interesting morning for early risers.
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13 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:
Been said hundreds of times, these snow depth charts are an absolute waste of time and are only really ever semi-useful when there are much more pronounced frontal features and there are no marginal factors at play.
Tuesday's wintry potential is coming along as expected this morning.
Just trying to cheer you up mate! This is a model discussion thread, isn't it? Actually 90% of the charts published at more than 24 hours out are also a 'waste of time' as you put it, unless you are interested in the weather after that, how it might develop, how the models vary one from another, which of the models is most likely to verify, which charts are easiest to understand and which show the best detail, how the Jetstream and the Atlantic might affect our weather patterns etc etc. Given that most of us on here are interested in all those things, the snow depth charts are not really a 'waste of time', are they?
Even if they don't verify.
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The definitive snow depth chart - GFS(P) 10:00am Wednesday:
Something there to please everyone, I think, except around the Forth estuary perhaps..... Would be very nice if this verified - even Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get a covering!
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Although I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead..as is the GEFS 00z mean.
Never mind Frosty! Weve got a cold week ahead and you're bound to see some snow. We can then look forward to the Sping!
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Snowfall is possible just about anywhere next week according to our own excellent NETWEATHER Precipitation Type charts. Just look at these very promising 3 hourly images for Tuesday for example:
The theme continues on Wednesday and Thursday to a lesser extent. See you outside by the lamppost? (usual disclaimers apply - don't expect snow until you see it through the window.....)
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8 hours ago, Penfoel said:
It certainly is stunning , and I’m incredibly fortunate to live here !
But I think I’ll put lead in my boots and hope the cows don’t blow away .
It will be an interesting morning !
Well although the wind kept me awake for part of the night it wasn't the worst storm we've had here by any stretch. Nothing moved or fell off! Hope all is well with the herd. In the meantime, here are a couple of charts for 6:00pm Tuesday showing snow accumulation during the day:
These are the worst I can find and other models showing nothing much at all. Not a lot of snow for Pembrokeshire it seems....but these conditions are hard to forecast and might change at the last minute.
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18 minutes ago, Penfoel said:
Jesus
Great ... I’m really not looking forward to a 5am milking .... by Strumble Head lighthouse ....
I was walking along the coast path at Abercastle only yesterday - from there to Strumble Head must be one of the most dramatic and beautiful stretches of coast among so many in Pembrokeshire, but you are nothing if not exposed to the wind from the north and west..... I hope the ICON is overdoing the wind speeds because other models are not so pessimistic. Good luck with the milking - make sure you rope yourself to the parlour door!
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ICON promising maximum wind gusts overnight of 125km/h (75mph+) directly in my area - thanks for that!
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1 hour ago, stodge said:
Morning all
....... there is a game changer emerging in the medium to long term and those looking beyond whether it will snow on Tuesday might have first seen it on some of yesterday's runs but ECM picks it up this morning:It's ...... the small LP forming to the west of the Azores HP. This is a critical feature going forward as it initiates a change in the pattern, For the last few weeks, our LP have been spinning off the Canadian PV lobe and deepening past the tip of southern Greenland but this LP is sourced from the tropical Atlantic.
...................
It's one to watch and could be the pattern for a cold anticyclonic February dominated by HP to the east. Whether it develops as a true HLB or it's MLB based to the east remains to be seen but it's the direction of travel that IDO hinted at a couple of days ago as well.But....can we be sure this feature will form at all......?
Here are the northern hemisphere charts at +240 (5th February) from this mornings output:
ECM
GFS
GFS (p)
GEM.
Not much agreement there......the only common trend in our location seems to be that the Azores high has been flattened and Atlantic is back in charge with everything coming from the west. No sign of blocking and no easterly or northerly elements. Perhaps this is the trend we should expect for February? As ManWithBeard, JohnHolmes and others have been saying for a long time, the ensembles must be consulted for guidance at this range.
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Most of the posts on Netweather are interpreting the enormous variety of model outputs to predict the most likely weather conditions over the next few days or even two weeks ahead, but it seems to me that only those members like Knocker and a few others who concentrate on the short term (24 - 72 hours ahead) are likely to get it right. Here are some examples of model variations over only a 10 day period showing the northern hemisphere for today as predicted 10 days ago compared with the actual conditions this morning:
Charts from the 16/01 for 26/01 Same model, actual conditions on the 26/01
ECM
GFS
GEM
Perhaps not surprisingly none of these models either agreed with each other or were able to accurately forecast today's northern hemisphere conditions, and their predictions were in fact quite wide of the mark with only the ECM getting anywhere near the right solution. As far as the detail in our small area of the world is concerned the 10 day outlook in these examples was quite misleading. It just proves to me that although long term trends might be deduced from the model output, beyond 72 hours almost anything can happen locally and we should not be surprised if actual snowfall is not seen in the charts until it's almost on top of us.
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Can't say our weather is boring here in Wales with wind, rain, and possibly snow all due over the next few days.....
Up to 75mph gusts on Sunday especially in the south west:
30mm of rain over most of the country in the next 36 hours:
followed by snow on Tuesday but only to the highest ground:
....all according to the ARPEGE - other models see things differently of course!
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The quite significant differences between the ECM 0Z and 12Z for Saturday 2nd February:
500s. 850s
0Z
12Z.
The low is further south and more intense bringing colder and more widespread uppers. Must be a move to a colder evolution..... (nb. The 12z charts do show conditions 12 hours later than the 0z displayed but I still regard this as an upgrade!)
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In an effort to keep everyone's hopes alive for a proper cold spell this winter, I am daring to post more charts from the CFS (1 mnth) which is still promoting a frigid few days in mid-February:
The odds are stacked against this from happening but it remains a possible outcome and only three weeks away......
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Might be an interesting day for Wales next Wednesday if this comes off.....
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8 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
The Spanish met have been bang on with their winter forecast of HP dominated winter over Iberia
that slug to our south west and the PV over North Eastern Canada has been the killer of this winter
We've been robbed of our Beast from the East by the Pest in the West....
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If I'm reading this right, ECM still suggesting several hours of widespread snow on Wednesday.....
....but probably only light if it happens at all ??
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9 hours ago, lassie23 said:
All i want is a flake before February is out
You're easily pleased!
.....but if it's something white and fluffy you had in mind the ICON says you might get your wish before the end of January!
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Snowy possibilities next week?
M4 corridor to be buried....
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Rain stopped a while back, clouds now rolling back nicely, sun appearing in the west as I write this..... Might be a nice evening although we could get some showers later..... all in all I think it's over for Pembrokeshire today. I will be hoping for something more wintry on Thursday or Friday but not placing any bets! Now starting to look at the following week for any signs of more cold weather but time is running out.