Sky Full
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After a wonderful spell of summery weather over Easter, conditions finally changed yesterday (although we did get some rain Tuesday night here as well). The rain set in for most of the afternoon and the temperatures have been knocked back accordingly. This morning we had a grey dawn and steady rain but it's eased up now. Showers or perhaps more persistent rain due later and it seems set to be cooler and wetter for a few days now. However, the ground has been grateful for a soaking - and you don't hear that said very often in these parts!
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You can't knock this weather specially after what went before. A lovely couple of days of warm Spring sunshine, light winds and no rain. With the weekend set in the same mould we can hope for a continuation into May..... Not sure we'll get it, though.
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Well, it's 6:00pm and the veil of cloud still hasn't cleared this part of the world yet - no sun for us today after all. It's very hazy, so maybe there is a lot of moisture in air which needs burning off? I just hope this isn't going to hang around the west coast while the rest of the country gets a lovely sunny day tomorrow....
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A very dull, wet start to the day here but markedly quieter than yesterday - the wind has dropped and is now barely noticeable - almost a dead calm in fact. In the last hour I think the sky has brightened a little and I am hoping we might see some sunshine later this afternoon. After that, the only way is up for at least a few days until Sunday when rain looks likely to arrive from the west. Still time for this to change so perhaps there will be an improvement in the medium term forecast.....fingers crossed!
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Not too bad a day yesterday after all - mostly cloudy with only a little watery sunshine at times but it remained dry all day. The easterly wind was the worst factor being strong and gusty at times and keeping the 'feels like' temperature very low. It's a very grey start this morning with a strong SSE wind but still dry for the time being. Rain is expected here later and overnight but I'm looking forward to the warm-up we're promised for the end of the week..... even Fishguard got a mention on BBC 'Weather for the Week Ahead' last night!
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Quite a change here this morning with 100% cloud cover but still a nagging, chilly breeze keeping temperatures down. At least we are frost free and remaining dry - for now.
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20 minutes ago, knocker said:
Temp 6C and the wind has dropped compared to yesterday but cloud and rain associated with the frontal system to the west has encroached as can be seen on the midnight sounding (solid cloud) and the 0300 WV image. The problem with this is the fronts are liable to get 'stuck'
We're experiencing similar conditions here, Knocker, with 100% overcast now, although there was a pinkish tint to the eastern horizon at dawn as the sun managed to peep under the cloud edge. I doubt that we will see the sun again until Tuesday now but after that the signs are promising for a settled Easter weekend - fingers crossed!
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A lovely sunny morning here is being followed by a hazy afternoon with high cloud invading from the south west. Looks very nice outside but when you actually step outside it's still quite cold. A gusty, very chilly wind from the south east is taking the edge off the day and makes it feel only just above freezing here! At least we were frost free overnight (only just!) and there's no risk of frost now for at least the next few days (hopefully........ tender new growth now need some luck to get through until May.....).
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What a lovely week of weather we have just enjoyed.....every day this week has been dry. It's been mostly sunny too with only bits of cloud now and then, lots of blue sky even if a little hazy perhaps, and with only light winds. Yes, we've had temperatures a tad below average with three frosts in all but nothing out of the ordinary for the time of year. When the sun has been shining and out of the wind it's been pleasantly warm at times. Weather for getting a lot done outside in fact. Yes, on balance, an easterly wind at this time of year combined with high pressure makes Pembrokeshire the best place to be! Looks like it might last for today although more cloudy for Sunday and early next week, but no sign of any nasty Atlantic storms or torrential rain so things could be a lot worse! Very happy with the weather at the moment.
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Got to pinch myself before I say this - it didn't rain today! Plus - the sun came out for a look at us. Not too bad a day really, and the outlook for tomorrow is sunny all day! Hmm. We shall see..... I really want to cut the grass now but it's got to be dry enough first.
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It's been a cloudy, dreary, damp week here this week with 100% overcast and rain or drizzle most days. Had to travel to Cardiff on Tuesday where it was bright and even sunny, but driving back the clouds increased and by the time I was nearly home it was pretty foggy. Fog hung around most of Wednesday but only low clouds yesterday and today. Mustn't complain though because I would take even this weather over the damaging storms we had previously! It must be our turn to see some sunshine soon and the signs are promising for next week - after another band of rain moves through tonight that is!
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Showers they said... What showers? I recognise continuous rain when I see it, and it's persistently raining here - has been since before 6:00am. 100% overcast and wet. Must admit, this is not what I was expecting. I will have to learn how to read those charts better. Still, at least the wind has dropped. Maybe the rain will ease up later. Or tomorrow. Or maybe at the end of the week. Who knows?
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
It's interesting to note that although the week ahead looks good, especially further south, the following week looks better..nationwide!
You can keep this up for as long as you like, Frosty, as far as I am concerned!
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ECM has high pressure meandering around the UK from the 21st March to the 27th March....
Trying to understand the whole picture, can anyone explain what other data I would need to look at to predict if this feature will bring mainly cloudy conditions or sun? Is it the strength of the high that matters, or the source of high level air etc.?
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Rain and wind beginning to ease off here, now. I see its still coming down in Cardiff though. Bet the Irish wish they'd not asked for the roof to be left open on the stadium, after all......
Looking forward to some calmer and drier weather over the next few days - we need to dry out here now!
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Back again this morning for your enjoyment and entertainment, that good old favourite (not) - SIDEWAYS RAIN! Yes - its coming down (sideways) hard this morning and it's at times like this I'm grateful to the inventor of double-glazed windows and doors. Mind you, I'm not so confident about the roof which is groaning under the strength of the wind.... I have just witnessed a poor defenceless blackbird being literally blown off its feet outside - it had to jump (not fly) into a hedge to avoid further humiliation. Nature can be cruel.....
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As if we haven't had enough already, it's going to be a very wet and windy weekend.... Here are a couple of charts from the GFS showing total accumulated rainfall expected by Saturday midnight and maximum wind gusts for three hours from 2:00pm Saturday....
That's 6 or 7cms of rain quite widely and 50mph gusts well inland on Saturday afternoon - higher on the coasts. The goods news is that Sunday is expected to be a better day with winds dropping and the rain should have passed through - it might be quite a nice day! The rest of next week also expected to be quieter and drier with much lighter winds and generally higher temperatures - so maybe a little more like Spring!
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Heavy rain here now with a strong, driving wind so the rain is hammering against the roof and windows. Oh well. Hopefully it will pass by tomorrow.... Definitely looking for every little sign of Spring now - preferably with an early reduction in the number of stormy lows so we can lose the wind and rain for a couple of weeks.
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On 7 March 2019 at 17:30, Interitus said:
Have to disagree with this, a degree of climatic persistence is evidenced in the data, as should be expected from the duration of patterns of low-frequency intraseasonal variability.
From a quick look at the last 100 years 1920-2019 (arbitrarily chosen, earliest CET values probably poorer quality, and note data should be detrended for a full analysis) there is a weak significant correlation between January and February CET of 0.36 (it was 0.41 for 1919-2018).
If randomly distributed then there would be a 25% chance of both months being below average, 25% above average and 50% of them being different. 26/100 years had both months below average so close to random. However, 37% had both months above average - so a milder January is more likely to be followed by a milder February than would be expected by chance.
Some of these months though may be very close to the average and not register as particularly extreme, and when looking at months that are 1 standard deviation from normal something interesting is apparent. Only once was a very mild January followed by a very mild February (1990) and it is just as uncommon to flip from very mild / very cold (1945) or very cold / very mild (1983). However, a very cold January is seeming quite likely to lead to a very cold February, occurring 6 times in 100 years (1929, 1942, 1947, 1963, 1979 and 1985) and on almost half the occasions (13 v. cold Januaries). This may be because of the stubbornness of blocking patterns perhaps.
Finally, from the linear relationship between the months, using January as a predictor of February has a RMSE of 1.73°C which is marginally better than predicting purely by the February mean, RMSE 1.89°C. The linear relationship may not be stationary though, so its performance may differ over time.
A fascinating result which just goes to show how statistics can reveal otherwise hidden information if you are willing to take the time to analyse them correctly, which I didn't! In my defence I still feel that this particular data set still leaves the theory to be proven especially in respect of a relationship between v. cold Januaries and v. cold Februaries: 50% related and 50% unrelated out of 13 seems closer to random than a trend. However, I can see that there is an argument for cold Januaries to be followed by cold Februaries (and probably vice versa) due to persistent weather conditions lingering during the climatically coldest months.
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4 hours ago, wimblettben said:
Probably Wrong As I tend to find the Arpege model always over predicts the winds compared to the others.
Many times in the past the Arpege model would show 70-80mph gusts with the others just 40-60mph and 40-60mph would more often than not be what we got.
I agree and as things stand we might only expect strong winds at times but not stormy. It's still difficult for me to understand how a supposedly sophisticated computer model could get things so wrong at just 48 hours away - you would think they would all be in agreement by this point....
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Definitely looking unsettled but as the day progresses there is little evidence of this possible storm on other models so either the Arpege is completely wrong or the other models need to catch up.....!
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Oh dear. Here we go again..... There is potential for a significant storm on Sunday and the most pessimistic model on this subject is the Arpege. These are the possible wind speed charts for Sunday afternoon:
. Wind direction and average speed:. Maximum gusts over a 3 hour period:
12:00 noon
03:00 pm
06:00 pm.
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144kmh is 90mph. There is still time for this to moderate or even disappear off the charts but I expect a weather warning for high winds will be issued sometime before midday tomorrow.
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GFS this morning is showing the following conditions for Sunday....
Deep low pressure centred on the UK:
High winds across the south and west:
Bands of rain and showers with some snow mixed in:
This seems to be a fairly typical picture for an average UK March.
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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:
There as been spring flowers in my garden since January! as for birds nesting, I think the pigeons are at it constantly. Gfs does have high pressure over us later this month, although not overly warm, on the other hand the GFSP has us staying quite a bit colder. Pick your poison!! Like I've stated a lot recently, give me a decent snow event and I will be ready for spring proper! I've spent that much time searching for it these last 3 months my head is literally falling off. Frosty and Feb must also feel the same by now, I really hope background signals are crap next winter but it delivers big time. As for the coming summer I predict a tale of 2 halves, a very warm settled start, followed by a cooler more unsettled latter! As for the coming winter.... I've just heard on the grapevine.. Emerging background signals are looking positive!
You should definitely win a prize for perseverance under very trying circumstances! The absence of widespread lasting snow this winter has been matched only by the models almost constant promises of snowmaggedon which failed to deliver. It's been a hard lesson to learn for me but in future I shall take everything shown beyond 5 days as complete guesswork - much the same as the guesswork involved when your partner says 'Dont bother to buy me flowers or chocolates for Valentines day'..... Do you take this literally or is it supposed to mean the opposite? We'll probably never know the answer to that question or indeed whether the models are making it up as they go along.....
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Storm Hannah - five different models showing possible maximum wind gusts in the early hours of Saturday morning....
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Potentially damaging gusts if these charts are right - time to put away the garden chairs then. Oh, and don't park under a tree tonight....