Sky Full
-
Posts
2,792 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Sky Full
-
-
It's a beautiful morning here in Pembrokeshire with wall to wall blue sky and sunshine right from the off. A very light almost non-existent breeze barely moving the trees and warm enough to go out in shirtsleeves at 6:30am. The garden is in full bloom with colour everywhere and it promises to be a proper June day - not before time! We can look forward to three days of dry and settled weather now which begins to make up for the weeks of cloudy, wet and cool conditions we have suffered so far. After a cool-down next week the first week of July is also looking promising with dry and settled conditions returning - but at this distance I don't believe what those weather models say ..... they do like to get us worked up and then disappoint us, don't they!
-
GFS expects the Azores high to build in solidly over the UK in the first week of July, which is nice...
1st - 5th July (50% confidence?):
....and continues to show dry and settled conditions for the next couple of days as well:
5th - 7th July (25% confidence?):
For the period after that the GFS goes downhill bringing low pressure and unsettled conditions back - but by then it's only 5-10% likely to verify so probably won't happen....hopefully!
-
4
-
-
Another cloudy start today but much more humid and feeling warmer right from first thing. As the day went on the clouds began to thin and blue skies appeared at last! This afternoon we managed to reach the giddy heights of 20C but tomorrow promises to be much warmer - if the clouds can stay away. A lovely evening here now with a cloudless sky as the sun begins to go down, cooling off nicely and less humid which should allow a comfortable nights sleep (with any luck!).
-
9 hours ago, Sky Full said:
........... If so, and if the sun comes out early tomorrow, I expect we will see over 20C for only the second time this year! ..........
Oh dear. Another dull, misty start here. No sign of the sun. I'm sure there's a blue sky up there somewhere but it's hiding from us again this morning. I think the sun is going to show itself later though, so I'm still hopeful of some bright and warm conditions - maybe this afternoon?
-
Very much an improving picture in this area - the rain moved away yesterday and was followed by a quite cool but misty night and a dull cloudy start this morning. Gradually the cloud has thinned out today and there have been a few sunny spells this afternoon during which the temperature shot up. It has become very humid and the temperature looks like remaining in double figures over night. If so, and if the sun comes out early tomorrow, I expect we will see over 20C for only the second time this year! The forecast is confident of higher temperatures still by Friday when we might get to the dizzy heights of 27C! So Summer managed to show its face during June after all, despite the poor start, and maybe this will continue into July. We can only hope!
-
Have just returned home after six days away in a remote location with no internet (!) to discover one of the most dramatic mood swings in this thread that I can remember. Last Saturday there was quite a bit of depression in here but now there's the old excitement back as we look forward to a little burst of summer - at last! The ECM this morning has this set up for Friday:
That's a direct hit for the UK as far as the warmest 850s are concerned. The resulting highest temperatures are evenly spread over most of the U.K.:
This is still 168hrs away so keep your fingers crossed.
-
4
-
-
Yesterday wasn't too bad - only a light shower or two and some reasonably bright periods in the afternoon, but still felt cold in the wind. There's no getting away from it - this June has been a poor month for summer weather. This morning we have a dreary, overcast start and we had a torrential cloudburst for half an hour before 7:00am. The rain has eased off now but it's predicted to return later and continue tomorrow with very little sun and below average temperatures. There doesnt appear to be much hope for improvement in the immediate future so my hopes for warmth and sun are now pinned on July....
-
Cloudy but at least it's dry and calm this morning. I wonder how long I will have to wait before the next sunny dawn happens. For the time being we must be grateful for a dry morning although rain is forecast for later and in fact every day over the weekend too! If there is any balance in nature then we must be in for an extremely hot dry period at some time later this year....
-
So it didn't rain ALL day yesterday - there were a few breaks and even about 5 minutes of sunshine! But the rain is back again this morning and I gather it's the same story in many other places. The rain isn't the main adverse factor of the current poor spell of weather, though - it's the unseasonably low temperatures. We have had to have the heating back on again in the evenings as the house is simply not warming up during the day. Nothing is growing properly (except the grass which is in need of cutting but has been too wet for days now) and the garden looks bedraggled most of the time. However, despite the rain, the local culverts are still not running and streams are not showing signs of flooding in this area at least. Just goes to show how dry the ground was to begin with and it's easy to forget that we had three of four weeks of below average rainfall before the current wet spell. Early signs are appearing of a possible improvement for next week so let's hope we return to proper summer by the end of the month!
-
Steady rain all day - even in Cardigan earlier - and all this evening. Looks like it's going to go on all night and maybe tomorrow as well.... At least it's not particularly heavy but the total amount is accumulating now and we might reach 40mm by Thursday morning. Lovely weather for the ducks...
-
I like to hear good news as soon as it's available - even if it's 'fake news' - and that's why I can't resist having a look at the CFS charts when the weather is dire, just to give myself some hope for a period beyond 10 days. Yes - I know it's very sad and the wife probably could have me certified but I can't help it, OK?
Unfortunately for my sanity, the first incidence of a high pressure being forecast to centre itself over the UK - according to the CFS - does not occur until the 16th July:
CFS 9 month +852hrs:
The next is the 18th July....
CFS 1 month +888hrs
Now I know these charts will be far from the actual conditions on the dates in question but it does seem that the current low pressure dominated conditions could hang around for a lot longer than we would like. It's also not a good sign that the CFS goes on to show low pressure rebuilding after these dates.....
This is not a 'summer is over' post but I am getting the impression that summer has yet to start.
-
5
-
-
It's disappointing, to say the least, to be contemplating widespread weather warnings for heavy rain in the middle of June but here are the predicted rainfall totals up to Saturday midday (+108h) according to:
UKMO. ECM
GFS. ICON
The GFS is the most pessimistic for the most widespread rain this week but all seem to agree that Merseyside, North Wales and the North East of England will have the highest overall totals - up to 90mm in some areas but locally this could be exceeded. This really is a poor outlook for a summer month so let's hope there is a significant change in the forces driving our summer weather so we can enjoy a warm and settled July and August and put all this soggy stuff behind us...
-
4
-
-
We escaped the worst weather yesterday and in Manorbier, Saundersfoot and Tenby there was almost unbroken sunshine all afternoon with quite decent temperatures. It's a different story this morning with rain already set in by dawn and looks likely to persist all day on and off. Still not as bad as other parts of the country though. Yet.
Not to worry - we still have July, August and September to come.....
-
The possibility of significant rainfall totals for some areas is being proposed by one or two models for this week so here are the currently predicted totals for the next five days according to:
GFS
ARPEGE
UKMO.
We do like to trash the GFS and the ARPEGE from time to time but I like to think the MetOffice can be relied upon not to exaggerate. In the above charts even the UKMO indicates that up to 12cm of rain could fall in north Wales this week. Not a huge total in Winter but fairly significant at this time of year. Other models are available, of course, and some are much less pessimistic so perhaps it'll never happen......
-
ECM +168hr:
At least it's trying - not quite managed to produce a really settled high pressure yet but getting there! Is this a case of 'more runs needed'?
-
4
-
-
After days of gloom and doom, some hope for June at last:
UKMO +144. GEM +156
GFS +156
Just waiting for the ECM to come out and hopefully show the same evolution but this is a definite move away from the entrenched low pressure domination we have been seeing recently.
However, GFS (P) not on the same page - yet:
-
3
-
-
A very blustery day yesterday with plenty of cloud - very April like in fact. I don't see any sign of a shift to real summery conditions anytime soon - the unsettled spell looks like continuing until after next weekend with the sun only appearing occasionally between periods of wind and rain for the rest of the week. Early this morning we had a quiet and sunny start but it's clouding over quickly now and the breeze is getting up again. At least it should stay dry today before we get a very wet day tomorrow. I am hoping that June will not prove to be a complete washout this year but we can always look forward to July.....
-
No heatwave for this location today - 100% low overcast, poor visibility, and the likelihood of drizzle in the next hour. Hopefully the clouds might break a bit later but for those waking up to blue skies and warmth, count your blessings and spare a thought for the far west.....
-
1
-
-
How the Jetstream is expected to shape up over the next seven days according to the:
GFS. GEM
Both show a very simIlar pattern. Sticking doggedly to the south of the U.K., trying to deny that it's June already, the Jetstream buckles towards the end of the week to form the deep trough which will bring unsettled weather to most of us.
-
3
-
-
The following charts from the ops this morning do not bode well for next weekend - or indeed for the start of summer.....
ECM. GFS
GFS(P) GEM
Cyclonic, windy and cloudy with cool air above us - could be looking at March rather than June. Not saying that Summer is over, just that it is having a very hesitant start..... This could all change at the drop of a hat and some of us might be complaining about temperatures being too high and rainfall non-existent by the end of the month. But then I also believe that Spurs will win the CL tomorrow....
-
2
-
-
7 minutes ago, lindy2222 said:
Fed up with fog,mist and dreich weather.....hope sun comes out soon......
Couldn't agree more. We have 100% overcast with light rain this morning and it's quite cool (by that I mean 'chilly', not 'trendy'....). It's annoying to hear weather forecasters banging on about high temperatures expected this weekend because it's only likely to be felt in London and the south-east - most of the rest of the country are unlikely to benefit and many will see cloudy conditions with very little sunshine. Grrr!
-
2
-
-
We had some very good weather here for a while in mid-May - warm and sunny with light winds - perfect for Spring in fact. Things have gone downhill in the last few days with low cloud / mist, rain or drizzle at times, and windy too. Temperatures have taken a bashing and I'm back to wearing warm clothes again! I hope this is temporary and the summer finds its way back soon because we get enough of the current conditions in Autumn and Winter, thank you.
-
1
-
-
Some unsettled charts from the 8-10 day period:
GFS 0z +240 GFS (P) 0z +240
ECM 12z +192 GEM 0z +240
I still have a lot to learn but these don't look like the sort of early summer conditions many of us would like to see in June. Personally, I hope these predictions do not verify. What I would prefer is a proper Flaming June, which as we all know used to occur regularly in days of old, before any of us were born....
-
6
-
-
GEM is doing its best to keep high pressure in the vicinity of the U.K. right through to the end of its run, rebuilding the ridge from the west after the 20th May and keeping temperatures on or a little above average for the time of year.....
I've always had a soft spot for this model - now I know why!
-
5
-
Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just for the sake of interest, really, a chart from the GFS showing no rain anywhere in the UK for the next six hours:
Thats not something you see every day - in fact I wonder if there has been another day this year when the above chart would have been showing? Seems unlikely.....but possibly in February?