SizzlingHeat
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Posts posted by SizzlingHeat
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Icon 18z shows Easterly winds arriving this weekend but there has been a noticeable shift south with the bulk of the coldest uppers and instability south of the UK through the channel and northern France. There is still an area of snow moving east to west across southern England on this run but much further south and less widespread than the 12z. I for one am hoping this southerly trend continues. Would be nice to have some nice sunny days next week for once with temps back towards the 5-8c mark for many after Tuesday. Long way to go to call this though but the trend is definitely south compared to this morning and last night.
18z Vs 12z for 16:00 Sunday 18th
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I'm pleased that the 12zs have shifted the high south cutting off the cold air sooner. Dry and sunny will beat briefly cold and snowy, particularly this time of year. Some warmer sunnier days would be appreciated now please. Its been a very long winter!
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3 minutes ago, dec10snow said:
It’s caused by the air above being above zero, so as the snow falls, it melts to rain but still stays supercooled, hence it then freezes on the surface.
How annoying!
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So its 0c and dew point -3 yet it's freezing rain?!?! Why is this?
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Snow is over. Shame as still so much precip!!
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Still snow but very light although radar showing heavy? Confused.
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We have had moderate snow in Poole for the past 4 hours. A very decent covering. All surfaces entirely covered. Traffic a nightmare. Snow keeps falling. Temp of -3 and -5 dew point. Snow blowing around in strong winds. Worst snow here I think for over a decade if not more. Amazing stuff
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Precip on radar too far west? For Dorset anyway?
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Radar looks rubbish now though. Not sure where the rest of it is coming from
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So 0cm of snow in Poole/bournemouth by Friday morning. About right. At least in the summer we have some of the best beaches and weather in the UK. Flip of the coin.
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For Poole, Dorset (inland 3 miles)
Believe it when I see it but looks good!!
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2 minutes ago, Mark N said:
Especially for those NE in this thread.
Hirlam looks great for Thursday sends the first band North and less focus on moving it NW at that point..
That's a winner!!
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Overall pattern is sending the precip west. Warnings to be downgraded or pushed west if this continues.
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6 minutes ago, Mark N said:
Yup, a megre dusting here if ICON 18z is correct.
This is what I posted about earlier this evening. Been trawling the high Res models yet none of them, by a significant degree show anything like the TV forecasts are showing. Presuming they know something we dont (aka how the approaching warm front engages with the cold air) then I am very surprised they have stuck their neck out to suggest up to 20cm of snow on Thursday. The current charts show no more than a couple of cms at best in the most prone locations. The wind, if anything could be more disruptive and wind chill severe.
If the models continue to show the extent of the snow Thurs/Fri I would expect a significant downgrade from the met, perhaps even to downgrade the warning from amber to yellow. I would suggest 2-5cm at most having trawled the high Res 12zs this evening. 18z icon very patchy across the south west and none really getting any further than the east of Dorset.
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Had a heavy snow shower in Poole for approx 20 mins. Cars, roofs, pavements and grass has a dusting which is now freezing over.
Fantastic update from the metoffice regarding up to 20cm for Thurs. Cant see where all the precip is coming from? Looked on the models in high Res including some high Res models and most are not showing anywhere near the amount forecasted by metoffice?
For example the icon shows light snow not accumulating to much along far southern counties. Gfs not showing much for Thursday at all and redeems itself for Friday. NMM only showing light snow across the south coast Thursday! So im confused.
Unless they have confidence in the gem for Thursday which is brilliant!
Any thought on this anybody?
Regards
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3 minutes ago, Snowbound said:
Where did that HP to the west of Ireland appear from ?? Dragging down northerlies over Ireland ?
That's low pressure and the winds southerly over Ireland lol
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So the gfs this morning is showing a cold snap from Monday to Thursday then brief heavy snow quickly turning to rain in the south overnight into Friday. The gem has a similar theme but keeps the low further south and the ECM has the low further south still. Its not encouraging that the gfs continues to show this happening but as per usual the gfs is renowned for over blowing lows and is more progressive generally than the other models. This should start correcting south and east slightly by this evening. However it's not too encouraging that the ukmo shows a similar chart to gfs at 144 so im very cautious at the moment. It just seems that every time there is a decent chance at some proper snow, it gets displaced. Before then obviously plenty of snow around this week but very dissapointing to see how it could potentially end. Not a great start to Saturday! Hopefully an improvement on the 12z. Lets all hope!!
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Just now, AmershamMike said:
Eh? Snow surely?
Continental Easterly/south Easterly and uppers of between -7 and -10 widely = temps at 0 or below and dew points -3 to -6. Absolutely no marginality whatsoever even right on the coast.
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Well GFS was mild outlier from next Friday also an outlier on precipitation. 90% of members continue with -10 uppers and shallower low. Op has blown low up too much I believe
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Just now, stokepa31 said:
is this 00z ??
Yes. Rolling out now
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1 minute ago, Comandante said:
Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.
Well it's been sniffing around the ops for some time now. If only it could go straight under the block instead of swinging winds round to SE direction eventually ushering in milder air. Just have to keep watch on this one.
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The low in the Azores is concerning for prolonging the cold. Looks to make inroads towards tail end of the week again....
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My only complaint, whilst fantastic for a relatively short time, that Iberian low has blown up significantly and is close to the south. Similar with gfs and has been hinted recently. We would rather have that low travel west to east than south west to North East because unless it goes east of the UK then it will likely fill over us and bring the milder air in rather quickly. Just a small concern but again all miles into FI
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This chart at T144 from ECM. As Nessa would say... 'crackin'
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SizzlingHeat
If it was progged to be more than a 24-36 hour window for some temporary snow followed by a rapid thaw in an ever strengthening sun, then I would be game for it to go north again. However, the sun is now almost as strong as the last third of september and therefore even if there was some last season snow (for some) its gonna be gone in a blink according to most charts from Tuesday onwards. -5c uppers end of march roughly equates to 7 or 8 degrees. If this was mid to end of February, I would be all for it. However its going to be brief by the looks of it and the trend has been south by all major models and therefore any substantial snow which lasts more than a few hours for most people just isnt likely to happen. Just like when the summer is often wet and cool then mid to end of September we have a late surge of heat. Yes it's nice for some, but it doesnt last and the evenings drawing in quickly soon take away the enjoyment of the daytime dwindling sunshine.
Why these charts have to show up when its almost too late. I understand that many significant snow events have happened during march and indeed April but require absolutely exceptional circumstances. Yes -15c flirting with the east in mid to late march is special, its just not going to bring the same temps or dew points as it would if it were to occur in jan or Feb for instance, when the days are shorter and the sun weaker.
The beast from two weeks ago was fantastic for most people who enjoy that kind of weather including myself. However, now the daffs are out and the sun is ever higher in the sky I just want some warmer/milder weather now going into proper spring soon. A few hours of snow and more central heating followed by a rapid thaw is not what im looking for from this time onwards. Those who do then that's absolutely fine too.