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SizzlingHeat

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    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Another step backwards this morning, again the weekend looking ever more unsettled, temps really struggling to get out the high teens in most places away from the extreme south east in a blustery showers and Sunday looking a real yucky day. Next week both UKMO and GFS struggle to settle things down and while gfs gives a couple of days Thursday/Friday with higher temps another extended spell of really hot whether looks more like an outlier this morning compared to the most likely outcome 12hrs ago. 

    To me this is looking like summers biggest wobble so far, clearly more than a two day blip where temps only fall back into the mid 20s as was looking the case a couple of days ago.

    I'm afraid apart from this weekend, I have to entirely disagree with this post.

    Yes this weekend is looking very unsettled now for many but this this has been the case for some time now so is no surprise (and not a downgrade as a result!)

    You mention that the GFS and UKMO struggles to settle things down....well here is the UKMO at 144 hours. Looks far from being unsettled and is an improvement on what it was showing yesterday. The low in the Atlantic retreating and high pressure building firmly across all of the UK. Not what I would suggest as 'struggling to settle down' so could be construed as being misleading.

    You reference the GFS being an outlier in terms of heat for next week....well having a look through the ensemble members within the suite, all of the perturbations at 192 have the high pressure system thoroughly in control of the conditions bring hot or very hot conditions. Approx 80% of the members with the 15c isotherm over the UK. Only 20% of members have the high in a slightly different position with less hot uppers but still mid to high twenties at surface level. Here are all ensuite members at 192.

    Here is the representative mean at the same timeframe with a large blocking high pressure and mean uppers between 10 and 16c widely north to south.

    In addition, when you compare the operational run to all other members including the control run, you will see it was one of the, if not the coldest member within its suite. There is significant support widely this morning for a lengthy spell of hot or very hot conditions developing mid week onwards and lasting well into August.

    The GEM is also brilliant from midweek to day 10.

    There is absolutely no downgrade this morning.

    Screenshot_20180726-063820.png

    GFSPANELEU00_210_2.png

    Screenshot_20180726-064057.png

    • Like 21
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    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    It’s also worth noting both GEM & ICON are not anywhere near as aggressive in warming things up later next week and the GFS ensembles have a secondary universal dip through early next week leading me to believe there a notable reduction in the likelihood of hot weather returning given it’s effectively 7days away now. A couple of days back the weekend was a dry affair and back up into the high twenties on Monday and 30c by the first. 30c looks unlikely before at least the 4th this morning. 

    Except the GFS is showing temps into low thirties as soon as a week tomorrow (2nd aug) and mid-high thirties by the Saturday 4th. Even 1st August is in the high twenties (nudging 30) according to this mornings run.

    Not sure why 30 would only be reached after the 4th. Well not if the majority of ensemble members are to be believed the heat begins on schedule (around 1st or 2nd August) as it has shown now for days and look to be scorching by the weekend. Doesn't look delayed or any less hot than you are suggesting 

    Screenshot_20180725-071554.png

    Screenshot_20180725-071504.png

    Screenshot_20180725-071450.png

    Screenshot_20180725-071054.png

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    GFS seems to be really struggling to lift the trough northwards to allow the high to build. Jet stream a touch too far south with a little too much oomph. Not overly inspiring although the main rebuild of heat is not due until end of the week it's just disappointing there's a lot more low pressure around early next week that what was shown only a day or two ago....

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Liima said:

    Yep I think @ANYWEATHER has been on the sauce this evening. What a bizarre (read: plain wrong) interpretation of the output. A brief cooler blip next weekend (if you can call mid-twenties cool) then signs across the models of a resurgence of heat into August from the south.

    Yes, the signs are next weekend will cool off a touch but still low to mid twenties quite widely. Then there is growing support of some very hot weather into August. 

    I think the first week of August is going to bring the hottest weather if the summer with temps likely to be mid thirties, possibly high thirties.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - summer rolls on

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Having looked through the posts on here and the charts in detail this evening. I can't help but feel that the low pressure to the west is a little too close for comfort. Any of the significant heat misses to the east but only by a very fine margin. Don't get me wrong it looks hot in the south east and east in particular however more average/little above for the north and west (pretty typical summer fare) 

    There seems to be a pretty clear dividing line on the ECM ensembles and mean with a line say roughly from Devon up towards Lincolnshire eastwards maintaining the 10+ isotherm throughout the next 10 days however further north and west, pressure and 850s are lower so therefore more likely to be relatively average weather with some sunshine and rain (similar I suppose to the meto extended outlook)

    I'm not suggesting the heat will not be more widespread, as shown by many of the GFS ensemble members, however I feel that those expecting mid thirties next week are likely to be disappointed. 30c is more than capable of being achieved in the usual spots in the south east but more mid twenties elsewhere (high twenties at times in central and southern areas)

    Unless the low to the west is further west which in turn would orientate the jet stream on a more south west to north east axis, I can't help but feel the majority of the more extreme temperatures are going to be across the near continent. Obviously there are discrepancies amongst models at the moment but this is my general analysis of what the charts are currently showing for next week. 

    There are signs within the GFS and widely the ECM members that there will be further hot interludes likely as we enter August, particularly again in the south. However, those expecting nationwide heatwave conditions once more are likely to be somewhat disappointed I would imagine next week.

    Cloud amounts are forecast to be pretty high in places during next week with some showers and rain for some, particularly in the north and west.

    I would hope that there would be some agreement as we go through the weekend for next week. 

    I believe Frosty may have dazzled some of you with the very best cluster of ensemble members for next week however what he hasn't shown is the cluster of less inspiring members within the suite and hopefully this post may give some clarity to those in the dark.

    SO FAR according to the runs across the models throughout the day, I would suggest the following outcomes in percentages;

    Very hot (heatwave conditions) 32-35c 20%

    Hot 28-30c- 70%

    Average- 10%

    The warmest and driest further south and east.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The GFS really is showing furnace heat from mid week next week. *IF* the 12z was anything close to the mark with above 15c uppers and sunshine I would imagine quite widely into the mid thirties widely across central and southern England. HOWEVER this time yesterday it was showing a dartboard low, so much caution is required and far from nailed. However, it's looking sensational for mid week next week according to this run. GFS temps at 3pm next Thursday showing widely 32c and we all know the GFS is renowned for undercooking temps..... 

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Great looking 12z so far from GFS. 

    Just now, mb018538 said:

    Wouldn’t worry too much - could be intra run variation...check the gfs ensembles, 500mb anomalies and ecm for a better overall picture...they all still look fine. 

    Yes. UKMO been all over the shot lately but GFS showing temps up to 30 on Sunday in the south

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    @SizzlingHeat

    I could understand your concern if you were in scotland but for the south it's still looking great with plenty of sunshine and soaring temperatures!:)

    I'm concerned with the evolution of the UKMO though, rather than pleasant weekend surface conditions. It doesn't seem to be leading down a particularly settled route longer term which the GFS and GEM are keen on. 

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SizzlingHeat

    Disappointing UKMO when you compare yesterday's 12z Vs today's.

    Seems to have backed the GFS and it's more progressive outlook

    Screenshot_20180717-170454.png

    Screenshot_20180717-170442.png

    On the contrary, the GFS 12z is less progressive again this evening. 

    Its still all up in the air at the moment and disappointing there is such discrepancy even for the weekend.

    Screenshot_20180717-170931.png

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Another awful GFS run from the mid to late frames. All FI of course and just as unlikely to verify as the 0z ECM! 

    What's looking likely now however is a breakdown of sorts the beginning of next week with heavy showers and longer spells of rain for many. Although it is suggesting that 850s will remain relatively high so temps average if not above.

    GEM most progressive of them all this evening and utterly vile from the end of the weekend. 

    Lets see what ECM brings 

    • Like 1
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    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Don't get me wrong, I'm loving this hot settled weather, think I've more than proved that recently!! but the Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates a change around mid July to something more unsettled..or at least more changeable with some welcome rain for most of us!☔

    EDM1-240.GIF

    Yes but thankfully that's 10 days away and subject to change

    • Like 2
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