Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

SizzlingHeat

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    566

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by SizzlingHeat

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The issue with this is that it would be so cold, there is going to be a huge health crisis with so many people not able to afford to put their heating on. This would be catastrophic for millions of people, literally frozen in their homes. From that perspective if this was anywhere near close, it has picked the wrong year! There would be so many excess deaths. 

    • Like 18

    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SizzlingHeat

    I have to admit that I havent been on this site now for some time and I no longer follow the weather models like I used to, however I heard on the radio that there has been a cold weather alert issued by the met office. So, with this in mind I had a look, for the first time since the summer at the GFS, ECM etc but am a little perplexed to what they are showing. Yes, its going to get colder everywhere, but it does seem very dry with limited precipitation anywhere aside from exposed coasts. I am also very underwhelmed by the forecast 850s, which barely drop below -5/-6c for the duration with occasional increases to -4/-3c particularly across the SW. This doesn't seem like it would be that cold surely and any precipitation would be mostly cold rain rather than snow? Perhaps my lack of enthusiasm with weather and waning knowledge of the models has me doubting a lot more now. I remember cold spells from the past with -10c air entrenched over the UK for days, with occasional outbreaks of -15c but this seems very watered down and dry given such hype and excitement from a lot of members on here. Perhaps I am looking negatively, but I cant fathom too much excitement from a very dry cold spell with a few days of overnight frosts/little snow? 

    Regards

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/staffordshire/temperature-f/20220713-1800z.html

    ECM Shows the much cooler weather next week - Wednesday is back to mid 20's (also shown on BBC & Met Office forecasts)

    The temps showing for Wednesday afternoon according to the ECM are mid to high twenties still widely across most of the country. Given the op was at the lower of the ensembles I would suggest that 30c+ would still be very likely for many on Wednesday as well.

    Screenshot_20220707-211238.png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    And once again at day 10 serious heat incoming!!we need to see it in inch closer which it just aint doing!!!before that though we gona see very warm temps regardless!friday to monday looking very warm!!

    And the rest... Tuesday into the 30s widely. Wednesday still 30c likely in the south then mid twenties briefly before hot again. Many parts of the south wont see temps below high 20s from tomorrow through another 7 days minimum

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just had a look at the charts for the first time since the beginning of June. Been too busy to be looking all the time unfortunately. However, WOW look at these charts for the next week and beyond. Absolutely stunning. Lots of sunshine and high temperatures. Looking fantastic. I only came on because the radio said it was getting much warmer but what a treat. Last time I looked there wasnt even average temps for a couple of weeks with low pressure dominating. What happened? Cant wait for some sunshine and warmth ☺️

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Windy in Poole today, but not really exceptional. Had some strong gusts for about 2 hours, but there hasnt been any damage to trees or buildings here. A few reported around Bournemouth and Poole. I can see a fence panel blown over but that's it. Wind dropped here now and suns out. Have to say that I completely forgot about this storm until I turned on the radio. It was relatively windy, but nothing else. Perhaps because I wasnt really paying attention whilst WFH. Anyhow, its a lovely looking day now. Will try and get a walk in before more rain for tomorrow

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, MattStoke said:

    And I thought people only ridiculously reacted to individual GFS op runs during snow situations

    Never get anything on the south coast. No snow, strong winds or anything that resembles exciting. These storms always falter for this part of the country either going too far north or dropping south. Not sure why and its very frustrating.

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

    Same here, as I said it's always happens down here.

    Never mind. Another yawnfest of a winter. Roll on summer. At least its odds on for sunny weather in this part of the country, at least for a few weeks. I'm off, good night and God bless. I will pop back in for the summer

    • Like 1

    Storm Eunice - 18th February

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Seems the ICON has very slightly tracked slightly further north than the 0Z, with the centre of the low tracking from North Devon to Norfolk whereas the 0z had the low centred slightly further south exiting around south Suffolk / Essex. As a result, very high winds right along the south coast and inland southern England, slightly more inland than the 0z. Wind gusts even inland showing between 80-95mph. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model output discussion - into July 2020

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

    GFS isn’t on board yet. I see it as settled and warm later next week but not the blow torch that is the ECM  

    The GFS 0z was a huge cool outlier. The ensembles show the average 850s above 15c again from next Friday for a number of days. Some members even get close to 20c again. The mean for next Saturday is 17c widely throughout the UK. I would suggest the GFS is entirely onboard

    ens_image.png

    • Like 13

    Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    One or two members seemed pretty confident about it..

    I was commenting on the 12z ECM. If something like that was to verify, then a a shot at 40c was possible. Nobody said it was going to happen, just discussing what was being shown at the time. Unlikely to happen and everybody knew it was an outlier from the onset, but doesn't prevent those talking about what could have been if the synoptics aligned as of the ECM last night.

    As it happens, its backed down again this morning which was entirely expected. Still...low possibly mid thirties quite widely for 2, possibly 3 days next week as was the overall consensus barring the extreme ECM last night.

    Nobody saw the ECM and said 'its going to be 40c next week' it was just a discussion on one run on one model, which showed the synoptics we would need to push that threshold.

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...