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SizzlingHeat

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    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Any low pressure is well into FI. Again today the main models have shifted the so called 'breakdown' to the week of the 16th whereas it was showing the latter part of next week until today. I cant see how the 6z will verify in FI with the low pressure domination. As long as it stays well away and not into the reliable timeframe I will pay no attention to it. Another 7-10 days of dry sunny and warm weather (sometimes hot) for the majority. No sign of a breakdown or change just yet. 

    And I agree....no we dont need rain!!! Its summer and rain can do one until the end of sept at the earliest then it can rain for as long as it wants!!! Until December and it turns to snow of course!!

    Loving this dry, continental weather!

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

    Well, looking at the same charts last week, and comparing to next weeks.. and seeing that GFS undercooks alot of temperature, i'm calling Widely 31-35C

    I think the 'red' colours are misleading you. The darker the red does not necessarily translate to hotter temperatures. You need to be looking at the 850s and thickness levels which represent the temperatures likely at ground level. The 850s on this run show widely 10-12c across the UK. With very dry ground and strong sun you would add approximately 16-18c on top of that temperature. Therefore 12 + 18 is going to provide 30c at surface level. 

    The difference this week was the uppers were higher that next weekend. In fact, 13-16c widely across the UK last Wednesday and 13-15c across the west widely until Saturday which resulted in temps nudging the low thirties. 

    The uppers today scraped 16c across the south resulting in a high of 32c.

    • Like 1
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    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SizzlingHeat

    6 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

    Next Saturday GFS, looks it will be pushing temperatures widely 30 and locally 33-35... Wow if that pulls off.. 
    GFSOPEU12_147_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_153_1.png

    and buy Sunday we could be looking at mid 20s at 6am!
    GFSOPEU12_162_1.png

    Edit ~ GFSOPEU12_168_5.png
    Could next Sunday be our first best chance of beating the UK heat record? 

    That's wrong. The temps for next Saturday are 25-29c on GFS. Not sure where you see temps of mid thirties on that chart? Not with uppers of 12c

     

    Edit- Sunday showing high twenties. Would get to between 30-32c thought with the GFS underestimation of temps.

    However, mid to high thirties are NOT on the cards for next weekend. I emphasise absolutely not. Nowhere near sufficient conditions for that level of heat. Very misleading post for those with little knowledge.

    Screenshot_20180701-172422.png

    Screenshot_20180701-172657.png

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    If the GFS was to come to fruition, it would be a rather exceptional and possible dangerous/damaging heatwave. Probably the worst since 2003. Temps relentlessly above 30 for many many days for a large proportion of the UK. No sign of any let up for the foreseeable according to this. UKMO is similarly an inferno and GEM, well need I say more!! #scorching

    • Like 6
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    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Disappointed in the gradual decline in high pressure from the GFS particularly. We all mocked the ECM last night shifting the high further north but it's come back to bite with that high pushing further north with each run. Still lovely across the most part next week but becoming increasingly uninspiring afterwards. The UKMO is much better but I feel its the outcome of the ECM to decide which way this is going.

     

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Some of the moaning on here could almost compete with iceman 85 !!

    What's to moan about? A high pressure dominated run in high summer with temps of mid to high twenties widely.

    The charts a couple of days ago have blinded people with +15c uppers and temps in the 30s. Yes its showing cooler weather (for now but that could easily change) but still SUNNY and very warm with lovely temps above average and little if any rain.

    Going back to June 2012 we would be crying out for charts only half as good as the ones for next week. Puts things into perspective. Heatwave looking less likely next week but warm or very warm for most with chances of 30c or more still not entirely out of the question!

    People spend more time searching for the weather they desire than actually stepping outside and enjoying the weather we have/upcoming.

    25 degrees, 27 degrees or 30 degrees, it's still fantastic nonetheless

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Agreed, however it certainly appears to be a notable outlier this morning when comparing against the other models. So mid twenties until the middle of next week maybe 28-30c back end of next week. 

    Although it may be an outlier when comparing across models, it certainly isn't an outlier when it's viewed amongst other members in the ensembles. Many of the perturbations going above 15 and up to 18-19c in some instances. The mean sits comfortably between 10-15c uppers right through until 2nd week of July. This is for Poole (south coast) but still pretty representative nationwide 

    Screenshot_20180621-071752.png

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Alderc said:

    Yes the GeM solution is optimal to and would have a reload from the Azores waiting in the wings.

    Looks phenomenal. The heat generated from midweek and particularly towards the end of the week would be well into the mid thirties for many if this solution was anywhere close. Even from the start of the week it's very warm with high twenties from Sunday / Monday.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Yep the ECM 12 not as good for you summer lovers as the 00z run . By day 9 850s are 4 or 5 lower than this morning . 

    00z - IMG_2375.thumb.PNG.0a06fd7a7f60ad15e60566779e607eaa.PNG

    12z - IMG_2378.thumb.PNG.e98cb1f4c48675c7c852cace91162bba.PNG

    As we say in the winter that's a downgrade

    At T216 I won't pay much attention to minor variations. As long as the high is still in place, small changes will cause subtle temperature changes. Still high twenties on this chart though so unlikely to be particularly noticeable at surface level whether it's 28-29 or 31-32. Still lovely.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

    Just thought I'd post, I noticed a slight discrepancy with the archive charts for that spell a few weeks ago. On Wetterzentrale, 850's are shown below 15C for that day where Southampton got 35.6C:

    NOAA_1_1976062800_1.pngNOAA_1_1976062800_2.png
     

    Yet I remembered them being above 16C, so visited the Netweather Archive, and sure enough:

    Rrea00119760628.gifRrea00219760628.gif
     

    A bit odd but tbh I believe the 2nd one more. I may be wrong as I suppose the extra dry ground could have helped but I don't recall temps being more than 20C above the 850's before, even in dry conditions. I tend to think of a difference around 15C-17C, perhaps 18C tops for sunny dry conditions under high pressure, and I'd probably want to see 850's up around 17C+ to consider the mid 30's.

    Just my thoughts though and hardly makes a difference to the output!

    How odd indeed! I did actually think the 850s looked a tad low on wetter. Very strange but that would certainly make more sense! As you say though doesn't really alter the output, who have is still glorious!!

    • Like 1
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    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Fantastic ECM 12z mean once again. Solid heights across the entire UK for the entire run with 850s above 10-12c for 5 solid days across most of England and Wales during next week which would suggest several days of 30 degrees is looking likely. Rock solid support across the board for an incredible end to June. 

    Mediterranean blue skies for most with light winds and soaring temperatures. UV levels very high also. 

    One thing to note, I was looking at the heatwave of 1976 where 35.6c was recorded in Southampton on June 28th. 850s were not above 15c for most of the hot spell and with 15c and above looking a distinct possibility I wouldnt be surprised to see a 35degree or touch higher if some of the output which is showing materialises.

    Phenomenal stuff. Bring it on. BBQs, lovely warm evenings, sea swims after work and happy people! ?️?️?️

    • Like 11

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

    lol by that logic I could tell you to move to the states. There, you'll get heat, cold and storms guaranteed. save you begging for conditions that this country isn't set up to cope with.

    I dont beg for these conditions, I just appreciate the varied weather and dont moan relentlessly. I live in dorset, a beautiful part of the country. Why would I want to live anywhere else?

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