SizzlingHeat
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Posts posted by SizzlingHeat
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1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:
My in-depth assessment of those GFS charts is......Oh dear.
I don't think I've ever seen such a deep low modelled within 60 hours across the south of the UK. That would be horrific and red warnings widely for Thursday morning. Although it could still end up further south. Very fine margins
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If that arpege 12z is anywhere close to the mark then that would be seriously concerning for so many people. Gusts along the south coast of 90-100mph and 80mph inland. Very very worrying indeed.
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The 6z GFS brings things more in line with what the ECM has been showing, which is much improved from the 0z. I did wonder how many times the op run has been consistently at the bottom of its ensembles before it would revert slightly, which makes large differences to the weather. If GFS was correct then quite a reasonable week ahead although breezy but plenty of sunshine and reasonable temps for April out of the wind and in the sunshine.
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Cant wait for a spell of cold rain here in Poole. Absolutely vile, the worst kind of weather. Give me anything except for cold, miserable rain. Would much prefer a sharp northerly in April when the sun is stronger and the showers are often thundery with hail and those towering cumulus the April sunshine can generate. But this cold, grey rain and drizzle can do one!
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2 minutes ago, Lord Baltimore said:
Yes I'm sure the majority would rather have 12c and be able to keep their bills down. Fortunately the models are pointing this way. Wouldn't be surprised if that's it for winter.
Hope so. The cold is pretty useless down here on the south coast. Its just cold and dry usually. Unless we get an easterly with a channel low, but its so rare for snow down here, its just a nuisance having to scrape the car every morning and spending a second mortgage staying warm. Mild means the windows can be opened a little in the day, less clothes going out etc. This week is certainly very mild at times, hopefully that will be it for cold now!
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I do hope the ECM is on the money. Mild, yes please! This cold has been too much and very expensive to keep the house warm. Hopefully the milder weather will stick around for a while now. The cold can do one for the time being! The GFS shows some wintry interest at christmas but hopefully the other models prevail in their mild outlook.
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3 minutes ago, festivalking said:
I think it's a busted flush myself so yes good call
Totally. The cold air is just decimating the intensity of the band and isnt making progress. The vast majority under the band arent reporting any precip so another problem with evaporation before reaching the ground. Not worth the effort. I will probs check in again before midnight and see if anything has changed, but its very tiresome watching for what is likely to be nothing, but good luck!
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Its boring and slow. If it reaches it will be nothing more than a few bits of dandruff in the wind. Waste of time. Im off!
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Definitely further north on the radar than what was expected right now from the GFS. Cant help feeling it will fizzle out and move southeastwards pretty soon though. Still not expecting anything from this but it definitely is further north for sure.
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Radar has the main precip further north than GFS expected it to be, so who knows maybe we will be in for a surprise after all.
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5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Pointless those automated meto forecasts. They change more times than a whores knickers
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12Z GFS moves precip further south again, doesnt reach the coast but I wouldnt pay any attention anymore to the models, its down to nowcasting
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Very slight nudge north on 6z, literally a whisker too far south for anything meaningful, but its very very close to the south coast, literally so close!
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0.3c in Parkstone, Poole. Overcast with frost still on cars and roofs. Temperature only slowly going up. Wind increasing from the east
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Just now, camturbo said:
Let's hope it gets further inland will be keeping an eye on the radar along with everyone else lol
Its annoying because the met office radar isnt working right now so no updates on here
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5 minutes ago, camturbo said:
Slight dusting last night and thats the first snow I've seen, not exactly enough to make a snow man for my son but something non the less. What is the consensus next. How far is this feature going to get? Any ideas?
Ecm has the furthest inroads from the front, JUST about getting into South Dorset, South Devon and cornwall, but thats the limit. GFS has the precip literally skirting the immediate coastline of Dorset but no further. Other models keep the front out in the channel. No models show any accumulation aside from across South devon over the hills. But Sunday's system was a surprise for many, so perhaps this could surprise many of us and be further north. Unlikely but probs best to keep checking the radar for any surprises.
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17 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:
Are there any more updates for tonight’s skirting precipitation? How far it may get?
Probably stop half a mile from the coast knowing my luck lol
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Where abouts in Purbeck do you live? If its like that then tempted to take a drive over from Poole.
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1 minute ago, lettice said:
No snow here yet, its forecast for us from 11am
Can see it creeping towards us on the radars.
Not so cold here, 2.8c at 5am.
A very light frost.
Now 1.7c and grey cloud, snow bound hopefully.The radar is lying. We should have had heavy snow for over an hour now, but it didnt so dont get your hopes up.
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Well the radar suggested we should have a good covering of snow in Dorset, but its just cold and damp really. Very dissapointing, wish I stayed in bed and had a lie in. Never mind.
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I can hear rain falling now in Poole which is strange considering its holding steady at -1.3c
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Slow, steady snow still falling, although not half as heavy as the radar suggests which is annoying. However, its definitely snow, not rain here
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Coming down nicely now in Parkstone, Poole
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There are a few grains coming down now. Hopefully the heavy stuff will arrive shortly. Temp up to -1.7c now though.
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Storm Ciarán
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
GEM and UKMO have the storm further south as opposed to GFS and icon. Could go down to the wire regarding its track. Wont be resolved until much closer to the time I would imagine