West is Best

The Met Office were spot on about the relative potency of Freya. They also got it right with the Yellow warning. Had it been a Monday it's possible they might have raised it but it was probably on the cusp. A decent little storm, with some powerful back edge snow. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/04/uk-weather-storm-freya-brings-80mph-gusts-heavy-snow-causes/ Well done to the Met Office. I maintain that for short range forecasting in the UK they are the gold standard and nothing else comes close. As it should be really.

Blimey

Freya has actually continued to deepen so there may still be some sharp gusts this evening. 977mb now:

Were you anticipating it would be?

I see 76 mph recorded in South Wales. Wonder if anything will top that speed this evening?

Latest gusts: Mumbles 73 mph Capel Curig 71 mph Chivenor 68 mph Various buoys and ships higher. 86mph seen just off Land's End.

Currently 978mb. That's a lot lower than GFS 992mb forecast this morning.

The centre of the storm has deepened further to 979mb: Some big gusts: Buoy 62107 87 mph English channel: 75mph Pembrey Sands 66 mph Mumbles 65 mph Camborne 60 mph And loads around 55mph + Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temps-reel.php?region=uk&duree=1

13h00 Just off the southern tip of south-west Ireland at 982mb:

53mph just now at Cardinham down the road from you. Pretty confident somewhere in north Devon & Cornwall will exceed 60mph and maybe much higher than that.

It bears repeating that for short-range forecasting for these Isles nothing beats the Met Office.

I don't think the Met Office aim to 'win' anything. If that was directed my way, the point is that they have evidently got this right over the GFS, which had the low 11mb shallower and much less intense, which is pretty inaccurate when you're producing the forecast as recently as 6z. The Met Office forecast of this morning is one I imagine they will stick to for the time being. "Storm Freya is expected to push quickly north-east across parts of England and Wales through Sunday afternoon and evening, before clearing into the North Sea through the early part of Monday. Gusts of 55-65 mph are likely widely, with the potential for gusts of 70-80 mph for coastal parts of Cornwall, northern Devon, Wales and north-west England. The very highest winds look likely to occur on Sunday evening over parts of coastal Wales." BBC version 16h00: 19h00:

Now down to 981mb:

Storm Freya continues to intensify and deepen. It's now at 984 mb, a full 8mb deeper than GFS forecast on their latest model:

Interestingly, the new GFS FV3.0 Para which will replace the existing GFS has the low slightly more intense and wind gusts correspondingly stronger. I love the GFS and think it's the gold standard for mid range but I think it's behind the Met Office for short-range local UK forecasting. The improvements to the GFS modelling will hopefully help iron out some of the problems they have crossing the Atlantic. GFS 6z main: GFS FV3.0: GFS 6z main: GFS FV3.0: GFS 6z main: GFS 6z FV3.0:

Gusts are already over 50mph which isn't a 'fart in a thunderstorm' although I can't find the latter definition in my lexicon of meteorology. 988 mb and an intense little storm. Batten down. I note, with some glee, that this is now due to affect Peterborough though of course I earnestly hope and pray no-one is injured. It's all very well making light of these events but people can be hurt. Thankfully it's not in the rush hour. Met Office spot on.

Latest from the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47420826 Met Office have updated their Yellow Warning: Storm Freya will bring very strong winds, with some travel disruption and possible dangerous conditions late Sunday and into Monday What to expect Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible Some damage to buildings and trees, such as tiles blown from roofs and fallen branches, could happen Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible Some roads and bridges may close Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage Injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties The warning area has been adjusted slightly, removing northernmost parts of England, and extended southeastwards to include Norfolk and more of Cambridgeshire.

Storm Freya coiling nicely now in preparedness for her strike. 4mb deeper than GFS forecast and, significantly, more developed and intense: GFS: Actual: Met Office win over GFS ... again. Invariably the right option for short-range UK based weather patterns.

Some of you Midlanders and leafy Home County-ites are being a tad irascible and NIMBY this morning, if I may say so Do you remember, years and years ago, TEITS when I tried to tell you what your weather was doing in Peterborough and you posted a snow angel as a brilliant retort? wind.mov It's blowing a hoolie up the Exe estuary where I live. Peak gusts already in the south-west, six hours ahead of likely maxima: Camborne 44 mph Plymouth 45 mph Chivenor 47mph I observe nothing with which to disagree with the Met Office forecast for this event.

I actually think the Met Office are pretty brilliant on short-notice UK weather patterns. You can't really compare snow / sleet with a storm. They're different beasts and, as you know full well, marginal snow is incredibly difficult to get right. The Feb snow event here it rained for 6 hours whereas 8 miles away in Crediton it snowed all that time. I'm not really sure the point of being curmudgeonly with the Met Office on this: they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. I blame Brexit There's no data to suggest they're wrong. Just an inaccurate GFS forecast.

GFS 0z forecast a depth of 992 mb for 09h00. The actual surface analysis shows 988 mb. And notice how much more intense it already is than the GFS forecast: Actual: Latest forecast from the BBC: 'details and track of Storm Freya haven't changed very much, 60-70mph in the south-west, could see as much as 80mph in one or two places.' Latest from Windy.com using ECMWF. This shows the storm building in the south-west and shows the real kicker early evening for the Irish Sea coasts. That's where we could see gusts in excess of 70mph:

Latest forecast from the Met Office, issued in the last hour: Storm Freya bringing wet and windy weather to many today. Today: Squally showers slowly easing throughout the day across northwest Scotland, with rain across the south of the UK, gradually moving northwards. Winds also increasing as Storm Freya approaches with severe gales possible later in southwest England and Wales. Wind gusts around 60-70mph in places. Met Office forecaster Craig Snell said the South West would be the region to watch this afternoon as the storm arrived but that the strongest winds could be seen in other parts of the country. He said: 'Parts of Wales and the Irish Sea coast of northwest England is where we could see 70 to 80 miles an hour. The strongest winds will be limited to parts of western England and Wales, but the warning area includes parts of the Midlands and over towards Yorkshire and Lincolnshire as well. But they probably wont see the strongest winds until the very back-end of Sunday going into Monday morning.'

And here's 20h00. Note the vicious SW sting in the tail for the north coast of south Wales: roughly from Aberystwyth to Milford Haven:

Looking quite nasty later for West Wales in particular. Here's the 19h00 latest from windy.com:

23 hours ago you posted the above. Some time ago you set your heart against believing that Freya will bite, regardless of actual data old or new. You may of course be right, though it's blowing up wildly down here now, but as an old friend used to post on this forum, just because 1 in 10 times you pin the tail correctly on the donkey's backside doesn't make you an accurate forecaster. I suggest folk on this occasion stick to the Met Office analysis and observable data. It's a potent little storm for the parts they highlighted yellow, albeit fairly short-lived.