West is Best

I'm not entirely sure what the point of this is? Are you disagreeing with the MetOffice analysis? 'Peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts.' That, please note, will be the criteria by which this is measured. Windy enough for precautions and at the moment, based on latest observations, I see little cause to disagree with the Met Office warning from yesterday: Clearly in Thorpe Park you're not expected to feel much but this isn't, or shouldn't be, about NIMBY.

Freya is developing and deepening rapidly. Look at this sequence over the last 4 hours: I think the Met Office will be correct: peak gusts in the region of 60mph, perhaps 70mph in places and possibly up to near 80mph in one or two exposed coasts. Standard fare for Altnaharra, less so for Altringham.

Let's agree to disagree. I think GFS is really poor on Atlantic storms. Met Office every time for these shores.

In many years observing the weather I have never known the GFS be correct about UK storms. They either have ludicrously deep ones in mid-Atlantic, or ignore ones that develop and deepen late. This comes from a big fan of the GFS but it's definitely their weakest link. Met Office all the way on UK storms. Every time.* *Well apart from the obvious one that we don't need to go on about.

Well to Surrey in particular and my old friend The Pit, a certain rather well-known forecaster was once a tad cavalier about a rapidly developing storm They're notoriously difficult to get right. It's these ones which develop at or over the UK which can be very potent. The rapidly deepening low is the one to be most circumspect about. 50-60 mph fairly widely, 60-70 mph in the SW and possibly Midlands later and I don't mind betting we see an 80mph gust somewhere. That's worthy of the Met Office warning. So please be careful folks.

I don't have a problem about disagreeing with the Met Office but as many people use this site, could you please back up your remark with something rather more factually based? After all, this is the current Met Office position on Storm Freya which refers to possible injury and danger to life:

What a day! I've seen lots of temps into the 17 C's and Aboyne 17.9C if confirmed. I

Yes it's a long shot to break the record but I wouldn't be surprised if the MetO adjust the final figure upwards so anything within around 0.3C is going to be close. And there are some exceptionally mild (even warm) temps showing up on the latest runs. We might see 18C in the south this week.

Looking at today's model runs there must a real chance the Feb CET mean record is going to fall. 7.9C I believe?

I'm not sure I can ever recall such a convincingly early start to Spring. Yesterday here in Exeter was quite extraordinary: I literally was in shorts and a t-shirt with the windows open. The models continue the theme. However, if you want a straw clutch, the ECMWF does appear to offer the vaguest hint of a more retrogressive Euro high which would introduce south-easterly rather than south-westerly winds: As the ECM has been rather poor in the long range I'm not holding breath. So enjoy Spring! It won't last, of that we can be fairly sure. But by the time colder spells return we will be into meteorological Spring proper. That doesn't preclude snow events but, hey, you know the score.

Lots of very sensible posting today, if I may say so without sounding horribly patronising. It's probably true for a lot of us that if we can't have a good snow event we might as well have Spring. The grey muck in between isn't a ball of fun. The 6z just continues the Spring theme. It won't last forever but we may as well enjoy it for now. It is absolutely glorious out there today in Exeter.

Winter can bite hard in March and April but the overnight runs continue the theme that this week, and possibly next, are going to feel an awful lot like Spring. That's all really

I know this isn't a moaning thread but the 12z are indeed zzzzzzz. One faint glimmer at T288 (no please don't laugh): But, really, you only have to look at the uppers to see how grim that is. Er, that's it.

A friend of mine wrote a bestselling book. It could have been about today's GFS, UKMO and ECMWF model runs. https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Winter-Suspense-Thriller-really-ebook/dp/B00DNA49WO That's a goddam awful set of runs for cold

Wow I didn't think my post would generate quite the response but I guess it's a sign of the pretty awful models for coldies. As I mentioned in the post earlier, we can still get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But there's no getting away from the meteorological fact that winter ends in just over 3 weeks and that the clock, therefore, is now ticking. I guess we all know this so it's perhaps unwise to repeat it too often (sorry). The 6z run is a gruesome affair. I suppose a crumb of comfort is that the high pressure isn't static, so it can't really be called a Bartlett. In fact, in the 6z it retrogrades to the UK before heading off to Germany .. which is coincidentally where Mrs May should be going. I suppose in theory a run or two might show it going further and dragging in an easterly. But this is clutching at straws. It's a tad grim. We're entering the latter stages of winter on a mild note with little obvious cheer.

And the trouble is, the clock's ticking. We all know we can get substantial snowfall in March and even April. But meteorological winter ends in a little over 3 weeks

Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March. Last March in Exeter was an epic snowfall.

Just to be a little direct about this ... there's an Amber warning in force for rain turning readily to snow over South-West England and you think it's a bright idea to drive up over Bodmin Moor? I mean, great if you want to see snowdrifts but don't blame the Met Office if you end up spending the night in your car or in the Jamaica Inn.

I've also mentioned previously that I think warnings should be issued further ahead, but the Met did a brilliant job. What astonishes me is how people don't pay attention. I told my Ex to leave Exeter early afternoon: I'd have left at 1pm and I said '3 pm cut off.' She eventually left at 4pm and only just made it back into north Devon through thick snow.

Why? If they had paid attention they wouldn't have been stuck in their cars

Good point Kold (hi by the way). The UKMO gives a hint of what can happen with the (Bartlett) high sliding more into the Atlantic at the end of the run, which would potentially open up mid-Atlantic blocking and riiiiiiiiiiiight at the end of the GFS something similar. But basically there's no real getting away from the fact that the models are suggesting the first signs of Spring.

Beautiful scene outside. I just want to state what an incredibly brilliant job the Met Office / BBC / MeteoGroup did in forecasting this so accurately. Remember that the GFS had mostly rain and this was marginal, the Met stuck to their guns and went for it. The marginal nature can be seen in that for 3 hours it rained here in Exeter whilst it snowed 8 miles to the north-west in Crediton. Then even here it turned to snow. Impressive. @johnholmes

Hands together for the Met Office / MeteoGroup / BBC They got this remarkably spot on.

Continued heavy snowfall in Exeter

Whoa. Hold your horses. Coming your way surely?