West is Best

And by the way, there's quite a storm brewing for tomorrow night in the far west and south-west:

I don't think there's much evidence of it being dry though? Pretty much a soaking for the next week or so. There was a guy called Bill Firkin who used to post on the precursor to this forum c 20-25 years ago. He was a spectacular troll until he got banned: used to speak about 'the cut-off.' His theory was that if we don't have cold by January 15th, I think that was the date, then winter was over Needless to say it was a terrible wind-up and devoid of evidence. February used to be the month I remember for the most embedded cold and snow.

Re what has happened this time, I think it's always worth keeping an eye on the ensembles. The 0z is a case in point. You can see that nowhere over the next week does the operational touch -5C 850hPa, which is really mandatory for snow at low levels in England. But the other point of interest is if you follow the mean. It's clearly a gradually rising temperature profile. That doesn't mean this is set in stone: they could all be wrong because they're only as good as the input data. However, betting against the ensemble trend is a hazardous occupation

Thickness is only a part of the equation. As you know, snow is often a knife-edge experience in this country and to seal the deal we really need -5C 850 hPa upper temps. We simply don't look likely to have them this time. The added pain is the current North Sea temperature. It's around 12.9C which is warm and 3C above the mean December temperature. The Met Office / BBC are not forecasting widespread snow, but there may well be some wet snowy precipitation on the back edge especially at higher elevation: above 300 metres. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/../../../../graphics/favicon.ico Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts - OSPO WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service... Lowestoft Sea Temperature | December Average | United Kingdom Sea Temperatures WWW.SEATEMPERATURE.ORG Lowestoft, United Kingdom December average sea temperature. Marine / ocean climate data updated daily, surface sea temperatures and...

No just being realistic Steve. These synoptics are decent but not dramatic. At no point on the latest 0Z GFS ensembles is the -5C 850 hPa touched. I'm afraid there's not going to be a lot of snow out of this, but it will certainly feel cold for two or three days. The UKMO T144 actually shows an advancing mid-Atlantic low, something supported by the latest GFS.

There's nothing especially dramatic in the 0z ensembles. The operational is for once close to the mean: Notably, the -5C 850 hPa is not touched in the upcoming cold spell. Therefore I continue to temper the understandable enthusiasm for the white stuff.

Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.

Sorry but this is not a 'pasting.' That's rain which may turn to sleet and wet snow at high elevation i.e. above 300 metres for a brief period. I love snow but the ramping on this cold snap has been entirely out of proportion to what the charts are really showing. And the Met Office happens to agree with me

I don't think this is wholly true. The trend has been and continues to be away from cold. The one good bit of news is that the 12z operational was on the mild side in FI, even at one moment a brief outlier. But the ensembles continue to show a wide scatter with more and more mild runs appearing and the cold snap is less sustained as the Atlantic returns. In the short term the operational was less supported, with a significant number of milder runs. The general trend is way from anything too dramatic. A colder snap, certainly, from Friday to Sunday but nothing to get too ramped about. Very early days in winter terms and all that. Snow will be in short supply with such warm North Sea temps. It will only really be apparent above 300 metres, elevation which doesn't exist in East Anglia.

With the North Sea still so warm I suspect anything off that ECM will be a disappointment except on high ground to the north. It's too early in the season and the upper air source would need to be far more penetrative. I'm not meaning to be a killjoy. I can't see much excitement in this. It's going to feel cold but it's all a bit 'meh.' The GFS is trending away from cold and UKMO has now followed suit. And there's little in the GFS ensembles to make me sit up. Here's the 18z: And the 0z: The fact that UKMO has backed away from anything more sustained is not a good sign.

The thing is, I've been watching the GFS for months and it has forever been plumping for blocked scenarios which are, mysteriously, always out in FI. Then, up pops a return to Atlantic zonality and we are back in the usual cycle until the next FI blocking appears. Rinse and repeat. Call me a cynic but I've stopped paying any attention to anything beyond T168. We would need serious upstream blocking i.e. a proper Greenland High, a phenomenal Svalbard High or a fantastic mid-Atlantic High and we need them inside T168.

This is classic GFS and it has been doing this for months. It was never a particularly stellar FI cold snap but the sudden 12z switch to the Atlantic doesn't, sadly, surprise me. It has been all over the place. Who knows?

Gulp. You seem very sure of that? I'm sadly not yet convinced by the excitement on here. A chart like this is, imho, a recipe for trouble in future runs: The problem is that we don't have a Greenland High and we don't really have a mid-Atlantic ridge. As our weather derives from the west I am always very wary when we end up relying on cold to come from any variant of easterly blocking. But, hey ho, I'm an amateur dabbler and what do I know. I hope you're right!

The ECM evolution is now basically a fast exit from the amplified shortwave into an Atlantic pattern, thus falling into line with the GFS. There's no blocking where we need it. As mentioned above by KTtom, the relevant high pressures are too far away and in the wrong position to halt the UK's default south-westerly flow. To borrow from W.B. Yeats, 'the centre cannot hold.'

I usually come out of hibernation around now and it has been tempting once or twice with recent model runs. However, I'm not yet salivating. My hunch is that the Atlantic hasn't given up its blow just yet and that we are in for two or three phantom easterlies until Christmas. The GFS is backing away from anything particularly exciting, although we may have something meridional around c. 3rd December. The ECM is the main source of hope and it makes me wary that there isn't much backing from the other big two. I may be wrong!

My concern is that the GFS has flip-flopped from a mega Greenland High (1060mb) to low pressure in the latest 0z run. Steve Murr has drilled into us old-timers the importance of the Greenland High for established upstream blocking. I've been watching the GFS over the summer and early autumn and I've been despairing at its volatility. I posted about this a few weeks back, suggesting it would be better to put a blindfold on and pin a tail on the donkey (that's a nod to an old old poster on here by the name of Atmos Ferric who then morphed into Stratos Ferric before vanishing without trace). The point is that GFS beyond T168 has become an unreliable joke in my opinion.

Afternoon Fred. I'm coming out of my summer hibernation I hope everyone is well and has avoided this wretched virus? Is TEITS around? He's going to love that 6z run.

G'day all. Basically lockdown porn for cold lovers

Well I think we've just started the month with the warmest ever recorded November night. The highest minimum is always a bit of a strange one to measure but by my reckoning the record has just been smashed. We await the Met Office to confirm.

I'm quite wary of cold Novembers as they don't always, or even often, mutate into cold winters. Much the same can happen with summer. Remember this year we had that incredible dry and sunny run from April through May? Then we ended up with a below average July. On the other hand, I do remember winter 1985/6 when November was bitterly cold under blocking and an easterly and a CET of 4.1C. Although December was mild, we then hit a real bone chilling February with a resumption of the blocking. At -1.1C February 1986 remains one of the coldest months ever recorded in this country. In the last 100 years only 3 months have been colder. It's a month that is frequently forgotten, mostly because it was so dry: a lesson that despite TEITS' aspirations (I hope he's still around?), easterlies are not always the best news for snow.

Ah. There's the answer. Wow Tamara. How exciting. I'd love to live outside England right now. I put it like that because if Scotland votes for independence and rejoins the EU that would tempt me.

Good morning Tamara and one and all. I hope you've been staying safe through this godawful virus. And, Tamara, re. your move: wow. SW Europe is a large area so are you able to be a little more specific? How wonderful. I'm making a brief foray onto the forum ahead of winter when I'm mostly on here. I wanted to state ahead of time that I think the GFS has gone down the plughole with its medium and longterm charts. I have long championed the GFS as the Gold Standard. Well, not any more. I've been monitoring the GFS for weeks and I don't know what has happened to it but it is utter junk. Complete rubbish. It spews out chart after chart totally at variance with previous runs and which usually bears absolutely no relation to what actually unfolds. Anything past T144 you're better off putting on a blindfold and pinning a tail on the donkey than using the GFS.

A gust of 130 kph, 81 mph, just now at Belle-Ile

Every GFS run for the last 4 has nudged Storm Alex north. It looks as if this and the associated lows over the next three days could bring disruption from rain across the whole of southern Britain and the Midlands and gales in the south and south-west. Pretty potent.

The Atlantic onslaught continues. It's now virtually certain that I shall witness my first ever snowless winter. Not even a flake from the sky. The briefest flirtation from ECM is soon snuffed out. With the jet this powerful there's nothing that's going to stand in the westerly way. A remarkable February but, for most of us, for all the wrong reasons.