West is Best

I can't read that without thinking of Yoda No need for anyone to despair. The GFS is good, plenty of amplification. The ensembles are a very mixed bag but then there's so much scatter from as early as T144 that it says to me it's one of those moments when the models aren't sure. This comes through with the ECM which today seems intent on flattening everything. UKMO incl fax seem okay - the fax especially. Ground conditions Sunday through Friday next week look 'grim.' Where it does snow there may be some piling snow in strong winds and elsewhere sleet and some penetrating cold (GFS). I've grown to rather enjoy cold meridional conditions. Give me that any day than a month's dirty high pressure. We're coming into this with a succession of cold months too.

This GFS 12z is relatively sensational for the election, given that we've endured two days of damp squibs. There's even a Channel Low appearing on Thurs afternoon to cause disruption. Much as I would love this to occur, I fear this might be one of those occasions when GFS is overdoing the intensity of the low but, who knows? Here's hoping.

If you mean straight west to east then I invite you to back away from your moment of Johnson-esque self congratulation. You're not spot on. It isn't 'flat as a pancake'. The cold zonal meridionality from Sunday onwards has a lot of waves in it with intense north-westerly incursions bringing snow over the north and probably into the Midlands. Both GFS and ECM clearly show this.

Interesting runs this morning, especially the ECMWF evolution post T120. I like the look of that with the dreaded high to the south getting disrupted. It may not look like Armageddon but it's introducing cold zonality. The run up to the Election Day still looks lively with gales from Sunday onwards and snow especially in the north and on hills.

Everyone else got that tingling feeling? We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun. ECM very potent from Thursday.

Indeed. It shows heavy snow in the north midweek.

Wow, exciting 2nd half to that run!!! Still showing a lot of snow middle of next week for Scotland and the north of England, but it's the eye-catching finale with the Scandinavian High and Beast from the East (where's TEITS?!) which will catch the eye.

This is going to be chaos if this pans out:

We're heading for General Election chaos at this rate. Heavy snow Tuesday and Wednesday north of the M4. Good to see ECM has come on board.

Just looked at Election Day. It's almost like someone has a wicked sense of humour. Bitterly cold: in places an ice day, with some snow.

Would you believe this? Election Day could be snow chaos. Okay maybe that's an exaggeration and it's still 10 days away but this keeps popping up in the runs.

Bloody hell ... Election Day is looking lively

No doubt the GFS has been gradually pivoting to a cold spell a week from now. It will be very interesting to see if this intensifies. Meanwhile, just for fun, here's the snow risk for Election Day

BLIMEY Who saw the GFS 0z coming? That is a thing of great wonder to bright light, and snow, in these dark times. It's F1 but not ridiculously so. All kicks off with the jet buckling and the formation of the mid-Atlantic high ridging up to Greenland from c. T240: Which beckons the north to come blow away autumn: It's fair to point out that the 18z had nothing of the sort and left the UK in a conveyor belt of SW muck.

Good morning all. Long time no chat. What interesting synoptics these are. It very much 'feels like' winter at the moment, and there's a persistent pattern for blocking. The 0z GFS hints at a developing Greenland High, but we've also seen regular sight of blocking to the north, around Svalbard, as well as Siberia. We continue to remain on the northern side of the Polar Front Jet, and this allows northerly and easterly patterns as well as blustery and cold north-westerlies. I know you all know this, I'm writing it for my own benefit too Mean CET is currently -0.6Cc below the 1961-1990 average and that's only going to continue heading down judging by current runs. Does a cold November pressage anything for winter proper? Sadly not. But it's pretty raw out there at times.

... and I still remember the bone chilling November of 1985 when this very similar chart: became this: which then turned into this:

Well it's that time of year when it's time to dust off the keyboard. I hope you have all had great summertimes. What a thing of beauty the GFS12z is today. It's been in the offing for 48 hours and, truth be told, we'd all much rather we saw it in December than October. Still, it's comforting to know that blocking hasn't disappeared from the earth or that the fabled Greenland High is just a thing of legend.

How about you discuss storms instead of using these pages to put the boot in repeatedly to the Met Office?

Still, thankfully folk on Net weather have your forecasting skills on which to rely, Dave. When it comes to spotting an Easterly you're way ahead of the game. The Yellow warning area for Storm Freya was appropriate and commensurate, especially in the south-west where it gusted to 76mph. Their actual forecast wind strengths in the relevant zones were correct.

I think if you're going to criticise the Met Office for, amongst other things, altering their 'local' forecast and then being inaccurate with it you really ought to be able to back that assertion up. Storm Freya gusted to 76mph and was suitably named and suitably warned by the Met Office. It wasn't overly dramatic and they never said it would be.

GFS ... I love it but it's propensity either to wildly over-bake Atlantic storms and then ignore the ones which actually do occur (eg Freya) makes it so erratic. Here's a classic example. Last night's 18z for Sunday: = a deep and potent storm over southern Britain. Six hours later on the 0z run? It's completely vanished!!!!

Big clap of thunder in Exeter at 4pm yesterday. Just thought I'd mention it!

I'd like to see (empirical) evidence please. What your 'local' Met Office altered and what they said. A screen print would be interesting to see, to assess. On the GFS, this is exactly what I mean about them forever getting Atlantic storms wrong. Here's the Sunday chart on last night's 18z run: See that whopping storm? 6 hours later it's completely vanished: We see this time and again and it's why we cannot trust the GFS on Atlantic storms. The Met Office every time for these shores.

No it didn't.

Fortunately we rely on something more empirical. The Met Office were spot on. Gusts in the Yellow Warning quadrant were widely 50-60mph, occasionally more, with a peak gust of 76mph. The tendency to put the boot in to the Met Office by armchair weather lorists is not much better than tedious trolling. It's better that they err on the side of caution because some weather patterns cause injuries. But they're damned if they do and damned if they don't and people seem to expect them to announce whether the wind will touch 52mph or 53 mph across their chimney stack, or if the snowflakes falling will settle at 2.1 inches in depth or 2.2 inches. Then they get criticised by buffoons getting stuck for the night on Bodmin Moor when the Met have issued an Amber warning for rain turning to snow in the South-west. You can't make this stuff up.