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MAF

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    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

    After the suffering on here this winter some might.

    I mentioned something the other day about how much the model threads had; and i know its an odd thing to say; spoiled my enjoyment of winter.

    the constant up and down waves of pessimism, optimism, fortune telling, unpredictability and in thread sniping, cliquey groups of certain model types and general about facing of opinions left me just wishing winter would go and the rants and raves of folk disappear. 

    alway been and always will look 3-5 days ahead and not wish my life away as to what might happen in a fortnight 🙂 

    • Like 2

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ahhh Spring, my favourite part of winter 🤣

    Not sure we are there yet, but wish it would hurry up and arrive as i am fed up with winter now. 

    To be honest i was fed up with winter once i ventured into the model threads and saw the sine wave pattern of :-

    'coldest winter for years'

    'snow for everyone'

    'oh no, its not going to be cold now the models have had their say'

    'but you said last week that this week will be better' etc. etc. posts.  

    killed winter for me.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    My post profile does not now go back far enough to quote the relevant excerpts - but sometime around the festive period or early January, I made one particular summary which outlined the fine lines between +ve momentum transport pathway synoptic outcomes according to whether fluxing was poleward (and under unstable stratospheric conditions), or, equatorward (under stable stratospheric conditions or where a reflective warming event occurs).  snip

    was it this one?

    Quote

    Always expect the unexpected.  What doesn't make sense, usually gets supplied with an answer why if one waits for it.  

    Equatorial fluxing between the tropics & extra tropics has created intense sub tropical ridging and a vastly inflated Azores/Atlantic ridge. That does, contrary to prior expectations in absence of it, make complete intuitive sense. With this, and stubborn legacy of -ve inertia within the extra tropics on the back of two large -ve MT events across both Asia & NA in mid late November and again in the early part of this month, then angular momentum falls shorter than it otherwise would and much greater polar jet energy is present as a consequence - in tandem with the strong sub tropical ridging.

    In the absence, at this time, of any switch in fluxing between the tropics & extra tropics to boost amplification in the extra tropics than a continued mid latitude ebb & flow of ridges is well modelled by NWP and the polar front restricted with its inroads in longevity towards NW Europe. SW Europe stays under the influence of the resident anticyclone.

      On 15/12/2023 at 12:31, northwestsnow said:

    Your post the other day was so so true with reference to teleconnections ,they have limitations insofar as our tiny island is concerned

    .The biggest elephant in the room is GW ,and the Hadley cell, its a winter killer for Europe..

    Looking at the MJO in isolation is not a magic bullet, especially to try to fit to idealised synoptics. As seen in the ongoing scenario where the tropics & extra tropics are so out of kilter and producing a-typical Nina-esque patterns in what is an El Nino background. Any fluxing from tropical eddies into the extra tropics is muted and rather than eddy waves propagating poleward, they serve instead to boost the Hadley cell and bottle up the pole. In this context also, any displacement of the polar vortex is equally subdued by the ferrel cell asserting itself over the polar cell.

    Macro-scale meteorological tools are not intended to micro scale forecast for a very small geographical area in the first place. They assist a framework for the larger hemisphere scale pattern to be evaluated within which that micro scale area exists. But more than anything else, as is always on auto-repeat - no diagnostic approach is intended to be skewed into fitting an idealised weather preference & outcome. Which is why so much mood driven emotion consumes this thread between about November and March.

      On 17/12/2023 at 11:16, Kasim Awan said:

    Often happens in El Nino years, warm September was a giveaway aswell. EQBO + El Nino combination works in our favour a little though.

    x+y= theory does not work in straight equations like this. The precise atmospheric circulation in existence at a given time has to be taken on its own merits - there is no given linear response. This post detail, again, tries to illustrate that. 

     

    • Like 2

    Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Paul said:

    I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

    A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

    Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

    Exactly Paul, communication is by far the most important thing when trying to relay a message of any kind. So the most simple, effective, understandable method of communicating a warning should be adopted as opposed to the current one. Maybe the Met O need a communications officer for warnings as well as their press office staff for news. 

    • Like 1
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