MAF
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Posts posted by MAF
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This is worth a watch - Met O forecast
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So, in my very inexperienced view here's what I see.
- It's winter
- It's going to be cold
- We might see rain/sleet/snow
- We might not
- Fantasy Island is just that
- where does a computer predict past 3 days? and be accurate.
- When will the model thread posters stop chopping and changing their views?
- what time is dinner?
- what have we got to eat tonight?
- can we get a takeaway as i cant be asked to cook
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and is there more to the weather than models?
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Just now, nick sussex said:
That’s funny because the end of 1978 31st December I was flying back from Cyprus with family into Heathrow and there was loads of snow and the North Circular was bedlam .
And I’m flying back next week from Cyprus around the time of the Atlantic low drama .
Is this a sign !
yeah, get to the airport early
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woo hoo its a bbq January then
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And don't mosaic the charts but post them vertically one after another taking a whole load of scrolling to get past the post
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Met O showing heavy snow for my area from now to 1700. lets hope so.
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Finally got some snow in the air here in Westminster.
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And lets remember, this last lot of PPN virtually appeared out of no where.
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4 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
See, id still call that light!
I'd call it atrocious, i mean, look at the state of the neighbour's back garden
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Just now, Methuselah said:
I think 'event' must be one of the most overused words in the English language. Especially on here!
but when is an event if it is not an event when there is an event going on during this event
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Current view of the radar and its pink blobs either side of the Thames, the green sandwiched between the pink practically follows the shape of the river. making me wonder if temps along the thames are too high and its like a reverse thames streamer
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Most PPN seems to be south of the M25 in a line from Northfleet to Brighton and missing London currently
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1 minute ago, throwoff said:
It came out of nowhere, was seeing a comedian, when we arrived it was dry and chilly. After the first support act I popped out for a smoke and it was snowing. When we came out after the headliner it was 6inches thick plus laying snow!
We made it to Charing Cross just as the boards all changed to 'cancelled'. Ended up drinking in a very trendy gay bar as it was one of the only places open, paying 10 quid for a beer just to keep out of the snow while we waited to see if the night bus would still run.
A proper adventure!
finally got our relief after doing a night/day/night and then around 10 in the morning the guys got in. 39 hours total working.
the gay bar? there's one under the arches at charing cross i used to pass when going to get the train after work. were some sights to behold outside it on a Sunday morning
after the 2010 event all charing cross was closed, i walked down the road to Westminster pier and got a river bus home to woolwich arsenal. with all of London at a standstill it was absolutely unbelievable that me and my mate were the only passengers on that boat. and better still i got a discount fare for showing my Ministry of defence ID card
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Just now, Methuselah said:
Proper flakes now, coming off the North Sea. Time to go 'shopping'!
Can you get me a flake whilst your out please
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1 minute ago, throwoff said:
I think I was in London for that one. Ended up taking a night bus back to Catford, then a taxi to Dartford, then driving home very slowly on the M2. Left the venue at 10pm, got in at 6am. I have a photo somewhere of me punching the air outside my front door!
If i recall that was the time i worked a 36 hour continual shift because our day shift relief all lived in Medway Towns and couldn't get into london to relieve us coming off our night shift.
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Meanwhile here in Westminster there is light grey cloud cover and it's dry
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Whiteout here in London.... oh, hang on a minute, let me pull the blinds up.
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7 minutes ago, Jason M said:
Air pressure will always play a very big fart. If it had been just 'high' at around 1025 then we'd have been fine, but by tomorrow we will be under an intense area of high pressure. This will cap off the showers as it stops the clouds from growing upwards. Along a convergence line you will do better (and one is forecast) but even with this potential will be very limited. 1-2cm in very lucky spots IMHO. For most, a few flurries.
Corrected it for you
night all
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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:
I am officially on snow grain watch
Now can I stay awake for 48 hours
Only if you have enough spirit
used to stay awake for 48 hours when i worked shift.... not good for the liver though
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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
At day 15!! It couldn't get tomorrow's 850s right a day ago
YES!!! and so i say again
Quotewhy oh why oh why are we still looking beyond 5 days for the supposed weather lets get the next 3 - 5 days agreed and then after that will come into scope. a typical example of looking too far ahead is that yesterdays weather was hardly mentioned in the model threads yet made national headlines for flooding. where were the model posts concerning a day ahead for weather? i really do despair when people look too far in advance for what might happen according to a computer output. ho hum ...
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God! my life is ebbing away just looking on the model thread. talk of day 10, 11, 12 is way too far ahead for me. i just want to know about tomorrow, not next week, which may never come. never had and never will understand what is so fascinating about a computer telling me the future and trying to predict nature ... ho hum. bed time for this old git...
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Good to see you around coops
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5 minutes ago, snowray said:
Bearsted used to be one of the honey pots in Kent back in the 80's for snow, I think it was Jan 87 that my old boss who lived there was completely snowed in for almost a week and couldn't make it in to work in London, he was a short man, I remember him saying he could not see over the snow drifts in his back garden.
Tomorrow should be a lot colder than today so can't see us reaching them dizzy heights of 4/5c again.
Upper temps today were around -6c, tomorrow -10c, -11c, -12c
Dew points today were 2c on the coast and about 0c, possibly -1c in places max, tomorrow -3c, -4c, -5c.
Should make a big difference, I think some places will see 2/3cm maybe a bit more. Any bookies around to start a competition, Tom?
I bet!
This group chat seems to be turning into a model thread ...... please lets not go down that road
but seriously. I think the higher ground will see some flurries, nothing substantial enough to disrupt things but nice to see if you catch them.
Lets think that we are a quarter way through Jan and it might improve for those who want a 'proper' winter event
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by MAF
YES YES YES.
all I want to know is the next 3-5 days, not might be in the next month. When will people acknowledge that past 3-5 days is totally unpredictable regardless of what a computer model is saying? I treat this as a Marmite thread. only because some people wax and wane over every output instead of just looking a few days in advance where the probability chances are massively reduced. Lets face it, the science is probably more than it has ever been, but it will never be as good as what it might be....